Kmlwx

Day 3 updates are extremely rare around these parts. Wow. They must really want to communicate the potential threat. Otherwise - why not just wait for an official outlook update tonight for D2?

I'm not sure we'll get much sun - that is still very much to be determined. I think there might be enough heavy rain the night before leftover to spoil that aspect of it.

NAM looks to have mostly held serve. No appreciable changes with the timing it seems. Still looks like 14z-18z would be the best parameters.

Also a note - CIPS keeps really hitting an event from May 1991 hard. I looked in the NCDC storm report database and it was a decent event in parts of the area. Focused north. There was a 70mph gust it looks like in northern Maryland.

I even think an 11am arrival time could do relatively well for us. I'm thinking a show time of 19z or later is mostly off the table. Maybe we compromise with the models slowing a bit but then the line/whatever it is arriving earlier. Gut says 10am-2pm could be the time to watch.

The slowing trend isn't as pronounced anymore - the other thing to consider is these squally type things do tend to come in a bit earlier than forecast. But the NAM keeps wanting to up the game. Insert all the usual "NAM at longer ranges" caveats.

Ohhh man. If you're close to going big...

The realist in me is expecting gusty showers or a gusty squall at best. But Feb 7 remains pretty highlighted in my mind. Things certainly haven't trended badly for us if you want some excitement. And if the recent Euro runs are right - we might do it all over again about 7 days later.

Of note - the Euro (and to a much lesser extent the GFS) are still hinting at another storm system around the same time the following week. Euro has a 980ish low to our north still.

06z GFS has 925 winds of 65kts over the area 15z Monday. Still pretty strong at 18z too - but the best winds are pulling north and east by then.

The 06z NAM appears to have been an improvement again. SARS is even lighting up with sounding matches from the database at some points in our area. It maintains instability and puts good supercell and sigtor parameters in our area Mon.

80kt 850 winds at 12z Mon AM on the 00z NAM over the area.

Pulled a forecast sounding from the NAM - right around Loudoun County - and it has 1800ish J/kg of CAPE and a ridiculous looking hodo.

Yes was just going to post - there is legit instability in the corridor on the 0z NAM. Still the NAM out in time, though. We'll see what the GFS says - I'm sure it'll be down to Earth a bit more.

And it looks like around 55-65 knots around 925mb at 12z Mon morning. Looks like the height for that is around 720m - so a bit over 2,000ft. Wonder how much of that will be able to transfer down to the surface in showers/storms.

I've already seen some wasps and bees. Plenty of spiders too!

12z Euro at 240 has another big time storm system. Has a sub 980mb low in northern Ohio. Maps suggest that could be another threat.

Easily would be similar to April 27-28 2011 - but of course maybe not with that duration. The duration on that event was something I'm not sure we're going to see again outside of a tropical system.

Imagine getting this same system with 85 degree temps and 70 degree dews in a month or two...and better timing maybe.

Well it's weird because the PPF shows a big blob over us with reports. SPC Storm Archive appears to go back to 2000 - maybe some events are missing? Lemme grab a screenshot. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/ There's a 3/14 event - but it doesn't match this at all.

It's showing an event from 03/13/2001 but I can't find anything matching that in the SPC Event Archive. I wonder if the date is wrong...

96hr mark on CIPS is starting to light up more than before.

I haven't even looked at any potential of big synoptic wind behind the system either - with a storm of this nature that's always a threat as well. And like you said, any strong winds on saturated ground is going to do some damage. I still maintain that I'd prefer to be down in SEVA - but things look okay right now even up our way. Encouraged also by these dynamic systems - gives me hope we can line up something in May or June with a lot more instability and maybe still good shear etc.

I think the biggest questions we need to answer are - How much surface based instability is going to be available locally in DC/Balt: Right now that looks like maybe a max of 500J/kg in a narrow tongue - Will the wind field be well-timed with whatever we get?: Models had been suggesting the best winds would be racing well east of our area by 15z, that slowing has continued, though. - Does any sort of mini-low form separate from the system? It looks more consolidated on some of the more recent guidance.

The one thing that keeps me muted on Monday (other than our usual "we always fail" mantra) is how much rainfall is progged for Sun night to Mon AM - that could serve to just stabilize the heck out of us.