Kmlwx
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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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Yeah - it definitely seems like north is the better location for storms - and this is reflected in the slight risk area from SPC.
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Slight risk for Thursday for northern parts of the area. Then we have a 15% extended outlook nearby for day 5 (not yet in our area). Looks like LWX is pretty bearish on the weekend. SARS continues to print out some hefty analogs for Thursday, though. Some big hail showing up. We'll see how it pans out.
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SARS has been showing some sig hail matches for Thursday PM. Too far out to say anything at this point - but between CIPS and the models generally suggesting a severe weather threat - it bears watching. I'm hardly watching our area for today - all eyes are on the plains.
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Thursday looks like our next good potential for something organized.
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Thursday continues to look interesting on CIPS and GFS.
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0z output from CIPS is not bad looking for our area at the 120hr period.
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I was in Calverton earlier and the lightning off in the distance looked spectacular.
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Sunday doesn't look that impressive anymore locally. But we are close to a slight from SPC. We'll see. Meanwhile - looks like Ian and our guys are in for a nice chasecation!
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We need to change that lol into a woo
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I'm punting today. Looks ho hum around here...and for most of the area. Sunday on the NAM really looks interesting. We'll see if it holds as we get closer. Nice instability of over 3000 on some of the soundings nearby. Good helicity too. And the LOL UD helicity maps on the end of the 3km run are nice looking.
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Sunday afternoon/evening looks like it has potential on the 3km NAM.
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Slight risk for today.
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Looking at LWX velocity scans I'm not sure i see much other than the abrupt windshift.
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That storm is going bonkers right now...
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50kft tops with it too! Impressive!
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Question will become whether it will maintain strength as it crosses the boundary into the more stable airmass north of the front.
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This is extremely lame so far.
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Tstm watch for areas west of the metro area.
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The warned cell is exhibiting some supcellular qualities
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Appears to be a boundary just south of the Potomac running across DC and then into Maryland. Visible nicely on satellite and even a bit on radar too.
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15z HRRR keeps everything north and west of the cities. Doesn't get much at all into the metro corridor.
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Definitely looks like a little "tongue" of clearing is working it's way into central MoCo.
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Delmarva starting to erode the wedge but no such luck in the DC/Balt area.
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Making a little progress - looks like DCA is out of the wedge and maybe even the southern parts of MoCo.
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I tend to just use them to get an idea of where the "best" activity might be - and also to look for consistency. Other than that I don't really think they have much use. I've seen days where they look crazy and we get nothing as well as days where just a little green shows up and we get multiple TORs
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