Kmlwx
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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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Take a look at mid-level lapse rates at hour 264 on the 12z GFS. If only that weren't an eternity away.
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For next Wednesday PM. Not too shabby from the GFS at this range.
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I think we had better severe in February than May
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Hope June gets more exciting. I don't need days, on days of severe - but a nice line or something area-wide would be nice. Even just a good lightning show at this point. Talk about a snoozefest.
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It has been a terribly boring stretch for lovers of exciting weather...I've been bored - luckily have been in the process of moving so other things have been occupying time. Would love a nice event to track. We wait.
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I'm fine with cooler than average - summers get wayyyy too hot and muggy in these parts. Only exception would be to fuel some nice severe storms.
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Weather has been pretty boring locally for the most part. This cool weather is VERY refreshing - you just know the 90+ temps and 70 degree dewpoints have to come at some point.
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0z CIPS guidance has backed off of that run now.
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Too early to tell - but the 0z CIPS guidance is throwing out some analogs that could be interesting in the 120hr time frame. The event right before June 4, 2008 is showing up ETA: It was May 31, 2008 and that was a moderate risk day for us. Then we all know what happened a few days later...
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December 5th, 2022 - around 8pm.
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Yeah - it's been on the COD website for a bit. But it looks like v4 only runs on the 6 hour cycle runs. It's not hourly yet at least not on the COD website.
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Wonder how things would have been different had they gone with the FIM instead of the FV3.
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I want to witness comet sized hail.
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SARS putting out a decent amount of sounding analog results too...
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I'll take the accolades and sweep the fact that it was dumb luck under the carpet
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Gusty shower went through Colesville, MD a few minutes ago while I was eating lunch. Nothing significant.
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Mesoanalysis has mid-level lapse rates getting crappier but low level lapse rates still steepening.
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That would be so cool to see here. Not getting my hopes up - but let's do it!
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Winchester, Martinsburg and Hagerstown all have dews in the 30s this morning. But they are also pretty far west. Let's see what the next few hours hold.
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With dews in the 40s and temps in the 50s - I'm not at all enthused for anything more than a breezy shower or two and a rumble of thunder.
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Simulated echo tops aren't that impressive - so things will probably be low topped. But isn't the freezing level pretty low?
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The latest (10z) HRRR actually looks pretty good around, and to the east of DC in the 16-17z timeframe.
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I should have said - at least at this stage - it's going to be all about whether it's even there or not...
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Going to be all about timing and the usual stuff!
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12z Euro with a bowling ball at H5 post 200hrs
