Kmlwx

This stuff forming around DC, if it's not relatively intense - may preclude a stronger threat later due to cooling of the air from rain.

It's pretty cloud filled here in Colesville, MD. Some light returns are starting to show up on radar locally as well.

The CU field is mentioned in the latest mesoscale discussion. SPC thinks that the area of CU running from the DC area up to SEPA may be a corridor for new development. Also mentions the surging outflow from the storms to the north and east. On visible sat, the field in general looks a little more agitated now. The outflow is clearly visible on the satellite images as it is just barely into the NEern tip of Maryland and into Delaware.

I think we have to hope that the outflow from the Philly activity can join up with some of the boundaries like the bay breeze and such around us to trigger stuff. Dews have some down at some stations in the area - still high along the bay.

Visible satellite of that Philly cluster looks like a nuke went off! They are getting walloped.

5000 SBCAPE on mesoanalysis.

Seems both the NAM nest and the HRRR (even with any dew mixing) keep areas at least a bit inland (west) from the bay in the game. Annapolis might still be a good place for storms. Definitely will be a nowcast type of event.

Microburst parameter looking good in the urban corridor from DC to Philly.

Weird shape for a meso. Slight now added too.

HRRR is pretty darn similar with regards to sim reflectivity. Somebody EAST of a line running from like Shrewsbury, PA to Largo, MD is going to get a nice storm this afternoon. NAM nest even has a really good stripe of UD helicity along the MD/DE border.

12z NAM nest really blows up a complex for NE MD, areas directly adjacent to the bay, and the Eastern Shore. Misses DC verbatim - but would make things interesting at least. Could be some good distant storm photos from the DC area. Of course I picked to work out of Silver Spring today instead of Arundel Mills.

ML lapse rates on mesoanalysis aren't as putrid as they usually are.

I just went out my front door and looked NE. I think it's a bit close to get anything good - you can definitely see the storm, but it's just messy looking. Going to have to see if it holds organization or if it collapses at some point. I'd bet on the collapse with some outflow rushing out - but the question is when. It's in an area that did have a bit more shear than areas to the south of DC - so it's got that going for it. Also no shortage of CAPE. I think if it holds together it may stay just east of me... ETA: Echo tops have come down from their peak as well. And if you loop that product - it argues for it to be a bit east of you and me. ETAv2: VIL product looped shows it had a good trajectory for us maybe - but has acquired a bit more southerly component more recently. We need the westerly motion to resume.

If that particular storm holds intensity and the same direction - it might clip me here near Arundel Mills. I should think about getting in the car and heading a bit east if it holds, maybe. If nothing else maybe a good photo op.

Also - talk about an odd motion for a cell in these parts. NE to SW essentially. Really nice hook on the base reflectivity. Nice hail marker on it too.

Yeah - it looks potent on radar.

This is perfect. Let's get the bay charged up for the Cat 5 up the bay that Eskimo Joe has been waiting for.

LWX says it's pretty conditional. Coverage looks sparse on the NAM nest.

We're all still waiting for our next region-wide event, though. We're starting to get into the time of year when pulse severe dominates generally. There can be exceptions, of course...but one reason I really like April to June is that you can generally get better shear and such. September can be really good too if things fall right. I know I've said this 100+ times - but I REALLY think (even if only anecdotally still) that we had more regionwide squall lines in the 90s and earlier 2000s. Not necessarily derecho-quality events - but just solid lines extending from the M/D line down into VA. Seems we have become a more line segment or lone cells kind of area. I'm sure some of this is just me remembering wrong - and maybe also lower quality radar sources when I was a kid (I relied on the local forecast on TWC).

I'm not just saying this - but when I glanced at radar before leaving Colesville to head to my place - I had a feeling there might be a surprise in the works when I saw those lone cells getting going to the west. Had that trajectory/feeling of something that could propagate towards the metros.

Looking at the CAMs - I'm not sure the marginal needs to be as far south as it is for tomorrow. I think most of us may even stay high and dry. I can see why there's a marginal for Sunday, though.

Good example of how it only takes one or two cells to make or break a day for individual backyards. Big factor is WHERE the cells go. Had the cells stayed over the mountains or cut up into PA before coming into the urbanized areas - would have been called a whiff. But it went through the metro area - so it gets a higher mark simply because of the location. I probably would have gotten a better dose of the storm had I been at my parent's house in Colesville *eyeroll*

@yoda - Spot forecasts are often requested by places like the forest service or local fire officials for fire weather purposes. However, I think they can be requested for reasons that would require a specific small-scale forecast. Ex: something that might require a precise knowledge of wind direction/speed etc.

Pretty good storm *sub severe* here in the Arundel Mills area. Sneaky day!

Looks like DCAPE is where we really took a hit versus yesterday. Down AOB 500 today.