Kmlwx
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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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As you said before - that will probably favor the more southern folks. WOuld assume the current activity in NoVA and Maryland may stabilize us pretty effectively.
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The stuff between Fauquier and south of Frederick looks to be pretty linear. Charlestown cell is doing a good job at staying discrete for now.
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A little cloudy here in Wheaton (driving)
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Univ of Wyoming has a site but it's not pretty like the SPC soundings.
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Surprised no meso discussion yet. Guess they will wait to include sounding in it.
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Especially shocking when your CWA covers a major population area that is the nation's capital. I'd assume it's a funding thing? Wonder what the cost is to release each sonde. 18z sounding ought to be routine on ENH days or higher within the outlined area.
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@Eskimo Joe kindly requests an EF-5 embedded within the eyewall of a Cat 5 hurricane rolling just west of Potomac, followed by it going extra-tropical, pulling down an Arctic airmass and dumping 2 inches of ice to be followed up immediately by a paste bomb or blizzard.
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Those are VERY useful. Seems we don't get them when we should sometimes. Let's see what we are dealing with.
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You're the red tagger so that's my fault I defer to you. I'm just an armchair weather freak.
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I've always felt bad for poor Yoda being down there at the bottom. I've gotten way more skeptical of exciting weather with age.
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Good to see you back here too!
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Yeah I follow him over there. Still posts good stuff. Didn't want to add his handle without him giving the go ahead.
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That junk near Front Royal has some spin on it on Radarscope lol. Also that stuff could stabilize some areas early.
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Problem is @Ian, isn't here as much and I haven't seen @Ellinwoodin ages.
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Mesoanalysis is starting to bulk up on parameters. Predictably, mostly in areas with more sun. The RAP forecast that is integrated in mesoanalysis looks good too.
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I know the HRDPS is a JV model but it definitely would imply a tor threat for Carroll for you. Even the rest of Central MD and then a linear wind threat from there to the bay and then east and south.
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HRDPS is discrete until the 95 corridor and then linear. Looks great. HRRR still is eh until you get east of the metro
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Visible satellite looks decent once you're south and east of Frederick County it seems
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Are you bullish?
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Not enough info to change the outlook I suppose. Steady we go.
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Watch SPC go moderate hatching just to F with us.
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Maybe drop the 10 percent and keep everything else.
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14z HRRR is truly awful for DC NE MD and Eastern Shore pummeled
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When in doubt... Always go with the QLCS mode in this area. More often than not you will win. Doesn't mean a rogue cell can't get it done, and also doesn't rule out QLCS tornadoes, gustnadoes or bookend circulation type things.
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Saw some sun on my drive into the office in the Rockville area
