Kmlwx

The improvement of satellite derived data has helped a lot. Of course, having a balloon or other sounding is the gold standard - but modern weather satellites can sample those "data sparse" regions pretty well at this point. I would agree that the days of using that as an explanation are mostly behind us. Add in aircraft data and you've got a nice data suite available for the models even without having balloon launches everywhere.

Yeah - we definitely don't need to freeze the Bay (although that looks cool!). Let's just hope we can get past the pac puke and get into this blocking regime and start seeing some response at the surface on the modeling. Snow in the Mid-Atlantic is always a pain to track down anyway.

Even for you guys - you don't need some 10 degree polar express airmass to get it done. And remember, areas east of the fall line tend to mix anyway in the biggies. I'm just saying we don't need it to be North Pole-esque to get snow - even for you guys.

We don't even need a "cold outbreak" to get snow during climo favored times. In fact, we've seen plenty of times when a massive cold outbreak suppresses stuff to the south and we get shafted in that manner. Give me "cold enough" to snow and I'll take it. We don't need some frigid Arctic outbreak to get snowfall here.

NAM nest has a nice line coming through tomorrow night. Looks good on sim reflectivity - long range HRRR runs even have some UH swaths showing up.

The orientation of the SPC outlook is similar to some of our high shear/low CAPE spinny days. Not saying they compare at all - but when you get s potent system like this - anything is possible. That outlook matches my thoughts mostly. I think everyone is at risk for gusty winds, but any tors should be limited to SE of us.

The 3km NAM drops me like 24 degrees in an hour tomorrow. Wow.

Best chances for the Wakefield WFO area. Maybe Southern Maryland and PG/AACo sneak in. Wonder if LWX will do the huge polygons

The 18z NAM at range (FWIW) has some crazy 925mb and 850mb winds depicted for the Christmas Eve system. Has 925mb winds over the Bay of like 75kts around 0z that night. Big swath of near 100kt winds at the 850mb level at 3z that night as well (over the Bay again). But the entire area at one point or another gets very strong winds not very far off the surface (few thousand feet). That same NAM run has a really well defined line with the front...would think that with the strong storm system, at least some of those winds could be brought down to the surface.

This was a good warmup for an upcoming (date TBD) 50" BECS.

Not trying to be a grammar nazi. Merely trying to show how things can spiral. How was mappy supposed to know that you were in a drive thru line? Apparently I'm on your bad side now too, though. Sorry man. I really do value your input on the board and that statement has applied since whenever you started posting. Seems a shame to all of a sudden have all this drama. I am friendly with everyone here for the most part. Sucks to see so much tension here. I'll be quiet now and just wait until things blow over. Hope you and I can be okay by the time severe season rolls around...

Mhm

I think what we all really need is to witness @weatherwiz dressed as Hannah Montana again. Then all will be well.

Do you want a burger? "Sure!" Do you want to go to the mall tomorrow? "Sure!" Did you get an A on your paper for history? "Sure!" You can see how that kind of reply could be easily taken the wrong way. Even if you didn't mean it. Just trying to illustrate a point there.

This. Especially if there are still high tensions lingering around. Hopefully the board can get back to being a friendly place again - where Ji complains and everything is well.

Can we just agree that "Correct" or "Yes" would have come across as more of an answer than "Sure" Regardless of how this all started - I can tell you that in my family "Sure" in that kind of a context is easily interpreted in a snarky or stand-offish manner. Regardless of whether you meant it. I say "sure" if somebody asks me if I want a burger. Not sure it fit well as a response to a question about temps. Clearly things are messy in here. Hate to see conflict like this erupting for a weather event. Hopefully everyone involved can just cool down and be friends again. And no - I'm not picking a fight with you.

Good lord - what the heck is going on here... It's weather.

We just have to hope that it's not a year when we get good blocking but zero good luck. It's early - let's see what we can do as we approach January. Besides, the later winter months are our wheelhouse. This is a bummer but very on-brand for us.

And add into the equation that it could even be pretty steady rain as well...always was told that if you want heavy freezing rain accumulation you're looking for lighter rain.

With a relatively marginal airmass - any models suggesting widespread or heavy accumulations of freezing rain are probably wrong. Sleet - yes, freezing rain I wouldn't be too worried about.

Can you imagine how bad model threads will be when there are models with resolution down to like 100m. "I'm 100 yards from the changeover ugh" "This storm is a bust, I'm getting 0.2 inches less than my neighbor"

I agree. Usually I use the orange Rain-X stuff and it's great. This is stuff the dealer put in. It's crap.

Well...when I walked out to my car a little while ago (Arundel Mills area). All my windows were frozen over, a bottle of water inside had frozen and the washer fluid froze on contact. I'm just going to take the weenie approach and assume that I have a local cold dome that will make me invincible to the changeover. Might head back to my parent's place in Colesville to watch this one. Probably similar totals overall...

No. It was the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension. It was awful.

Silly @mappy - You really think people here can be rational? Big reason I just stay quiet during most model run style threads - I know I'll read something wrong...I'll stick to spamming the forum during severe season.