Kmlwx

Look at hr108 on the 12z CIPS guidance

The 18z NAM has the axis of good parameters a bit closer to the DC metro this run.

I just re-read that and - Hail the size of comets.

Indeed. GFS doesn't look "bad" - it's always lower end than the NAM on svr.

Mainly NAM - but even the GFS has printed out a few good hailer results here and there.

This has been the most intriguing part to me - we don't normally get good hail results in SARS like this -

I agree with both of you. I think what @Eskimo Joe is pointing out - is that this isn't triple digit heat. So it won't be a 2012 style scenario. My expectations are a bit tempered because of that - but also because there seems to be a consistent signal to keep the main focus to our north and/or west. That's two easy ways we could underperform.The high end on this from SPC is probably a 30% wind enhanced. With the potential of good mid-level lapse rates - there could be a good hailer somewhere too. Our best hope for something more than meh is for a cold pool to establish very well and then to get a forward propagating MCS that sustains as it sags south

NAM nest at range has the timing not as favorable for us - by 0z (end of the run) the line is still up in PA for the most part. Would like to see that speed up a bit. It matches well with the SPC outlook of the best threat being to our north mainly.

12z NAM (12km) has mid-level lapse rates in the 7.6-7.9 range for 18z Wednesday.

I love this subforum. Always get a chuckle from the antics on here.

This is what the first D1 outlook of the day looked like on June 29, 2012 - that is probably one of the most prolific "upgrades at game time" that this area has seen in recent memory.

A bit north of us - @mappy is in the slight. Obviously expect tweaks as we get closer. D3 is an eternity away in severe forecasting. Do we all need a refresher that on June 29, 2012...DC proper was not even in the slight risk until the 20z update. Moderate not until the 01z update.

Seems like with a lack of forcing - we might have to rely on a cold pool getting established. Has obviously helped us before. We'll see - still far enough out that anything is on the table.

18z NAM soundings (at range, I know) are still populating a crapton of hail soundings in SARS for Wednesday.

18z GFS soundings for the severe potential this upcoming week have SARS results spitting out some big hail results.

Wow - don't see that too often!

In all fairness - I guess it *was* way back in 2000. We've come a long way with research and NWP. I don't doubt that a bust like that can still occur - but hopefully not to that degree.

95mph winds.

Wow - that was a quick recall. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/watch.phtml?year=2000&num=666 Anybody have the watch text?

What month was that?

EMLs really do seem to be our "magic bullet" for our highest end events - at least of the derecho variety.

Triple digit temps and like 5500 CAPE. Not sure we'll see something like that for a long while. I think if anything the trajectory of an MCS next week could be similar - impacts you'd have to assume would be much lower.

What is striking to me - not that we didn't all already know this...but how insanely widespread and striking that report map and PPF map is from 2012. Insane.

Here's what I predict - it will start looking REALLY ripe in the next few model cycles. And then by the time the day rolls around - it will be a miserable failure with socked in clouds and crap mid-level lapse rates.

Don't look now...but the 12z CIPS analogs in the Southeast domain have June 29, 2012 in the analogs - along with some other VERY robust events. The domain that is over us isn't showing much for now - but that period really bears watching now. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F132&rundt=2020052912&map=thbPPF