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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    NAM nest bullseyes DC Thur PM.
  2. Kmlwx
    I'm out until I'm in.
  3. Kmlwx
    Why are you doing this to us - now I'm going to dream of severe.
  4. Kmlwx
    @yoda - Remember though that shear can't be too strong is instability isn't that great as the updrafts could get ripped apart. Plus...NAM at range disclaimer as usual.
  5. Kmlwx
    You got me REALLY excited and then I got totally deflated as I kept reading
  6. Kmlwx
    Deb
  7. Kmlwx
    Here's the one for exceeding ONE severe report within 110km
  8. Kmlwx
    % of top 15 analogs with severe reports exceeding 10 severe reports within 110km of a point. This is from the 0z CIPS suite. Hour 120
  9. Kmlwx
    Relevant text from the D4-8 outlook for those interested...
  10. Kmlwx
    It's not a minor signal either - for long leads the percentages on CIPS are actually halfway decent. Now we'll see if it holds. If we can avoid having SPC outlook us in a 15% on day 3 or beyond we'll be golden
  11. Kmlwx
    Time period around June 11th might be our next severe threat. CIPS guidance is printing out some threat around that time based on analogs.
  12. Kmlwx
    This is more typical of DC severe - failure to the max.
  13. Kmlwx
    Planet sized hail.
  14. Kmlwx
    With embedded wedges every 1-2 miles along the line and minivan sized hail.
  15. Kmlwx
    Bring it west and drop a wedge in the woods near my parent's house
  16. Kmlwx
    Go big or go home boys. Let's bring it home.
  17. Kmlwx
    Those tend to result in pencil thing lines of gusty showers around here.
  18. Kmlwx
    Does seem that it can overdo those dews at times. I'll wait until tomorrow afternoon before I go out entirely...just doesn't have "the look"
  19. Kmlwx
    The only thing I've noticed that is consistent on most of the models is that it doesn't seem to be a high CAPE environment at all. Highest sounding SBCAPE I've seen is sub 1000 J/KG
  20. Kmlwx
    I hate 100+ and humid unless we are going to have severe to track. Blech lol
  21. Kmlwx
    Also we are going to start to enter our normal "pulse severe" phase time of year as we get through June and into July. I hope we can keep some of the nice shear we've had to work with this year. Imagine a 100+ degree day with high dews and nice shear combining with a good forcing mechanism.
  22. Kmlwx
    Without an Ivan we probably won't get that. Even days like La Plata and College Park featured one biggie and not more widespread naders.
  23. Kmlwx
    That's typically how severe is around here though. Two HoCo tornadoes in the span of around a week, big hail even in downtown DC, is pretty decent. Something like June 2012 is going to be very tough to come by. Wednesday looks incredibly meh to me right now
  24. Kmlwx
    I'm out for now on Wednesday. The models seem to indicate we won't have a whole lot of instability to work with. NAM nest (at range) focuses any severe threat in KY/TN and Western NC it seems. It just sends a line of showers through Wed PM.
  25. Kmlwx
    Pretty tame in Columbia - but today was a BIG hail day for a good chunk of the area. Wow...severe season has been generous to this region this year. Let's see what we can do Wednesday.
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