Kmlwx
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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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It's always something - watch flooding become the primary threat.
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The wind? Or severe weather? Synoptic wind definitely busted here. Severe is more uncertain.
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750 SBCAPE isn't bad for having no sun so far. The clearing should help boost that at-or-above 1000. Things are looking a bit better compared to earlier. It definitely feels muggy out there.
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I'd imagine it will be a relatively low probability watch.
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More showery junk in VA and running up into SCentral PA to keep our temps from warming. Blech
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Chance for something isolated perhaps. But we'll need some support and it's not likely to be as widespread as earlier thought possible.
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HRRR did kind of hint at that on a few runs with stuff getting going in like northern and northeast Maryland. Though - I can't imagine PHL and SEPA will get much more than us if the clouds don't start booking it out of here.
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Normally a south wind would be helpful - but there's no warm air south of us to advect in. Dews look okay at least...
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The RAP has dialed back instability figures for today.
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Typical Mid-Atlantic severe day.
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It's breezy here at times - but certainly nothing to write home about for now.
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What would be really nice is if the back edge of these clouds we are under now started to erode while concurrently moving out. Not seeing that so far.
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There's also not a whole lot of a gap between the current clouds on satellite and the clouds forming behind. Needs to hurry up and get here.
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The forecaster for the new D1 was Thompson and Kerr - are they known to be bearish?
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Did the 12z IAD sounding get abducted by aliens?
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The new SPC D1 is pretty lame lol. For the superstitious folks out there that's probably exciting news.
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IT'S HAPPENING
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From the 03z SREF products on the SPC page -
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True - and it's already day-of. I think in the past we had treated this one as more like the winter-time "Long Range Discussion" thread. Arguments for both I guess - I definitely don't mind staying here. Though for anybody reading back in future years - does make it easier to find if it's a separate event thread. Let's stay here.
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The 06z 3km NAM is really nice around 16-17z locally too. Good UH tracks too...those are weak sauce on the HRRR for now.
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Should we migrate to the obs thread? Or should we split into a thread specifically for this event? I realize it's kind of late into the event...but still something to consider. @mappy - what say the mods?
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It could be - nice when it improves in closing, though. What run are you looking at? You know the joke - the HRRR will be right 2 hours after our event!
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This batch of rain is going to be really bad for later. Even areas of my parent's yard (I'm in Colesville today) are completely water logged and spongy. There is major ponding. We are moving all of our cars out from under trees once the rain tapers off.
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Thanks!
