Kmlwx

I think the Northeast as a whole has seen one total high risk in history. I think it would be more likely for us to see a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch than a high risk. But - @high risk has a point. A lot of the outlook is based on predictability. If we have a CLEAR and OBVIOUS case of a massive severe outbreak days out ahead and it holds as we close, there could be a high risk at some point. And who knows what the future of the local climate will hold...

Talk about a "cute lil slight" for Thursday.

Outflow also coming south from the MoCo/HoCo line now. May be some new development where the boundary coming SE from Frederick meets up.

Development occurring in a more favorable position for closer to DC (warning on the cell near Bath now).

HRRR has multiple waves for decent chunks of the area.

SPC Outlook even has "the look" to back that up.

Radar trajectory of the stuff up in PA looks decent for now.

You're entire "persona" on here has gotten about as old as it can possibly get. Global models are not going to have a good handle on individual storms until there is some sort of actual center of circulation - and even then they can struggle. Nobody on this forum needs you posting the same crap on an hourly basis. It's global models - they might show a storm today and won't tomorrow. In the end - there might be a monster or a piece of crap exposed center. If you're truly a "weather enthusiast" you should really try to absorb some of the excellent posts on here from meteorologists and non-trolls. Posting a little less and taking in some of the knowledge is great advice.

Complete turd.

15z HRRR rolling in now is pretty robust for the metro area.

That little cluster seems to have overperformed. There are already 3 LSRs showing up in the wake of it.

I would think if they hang around too long they might reduce the risk over in NoVA. But Central Maryland and other areas still seem like a decent risk area (as evidenced by SPC area).

23-1z seems fine to me. It's not overnight - and it's still summer so there should still be enough instability around that time. Plus, these things do tend to come in just a touch ahead of schedule. Also that cluster in NoVA right now could lay down some additional boundaries to enhance later convection.

NAM nest and HRRR actually look pretty decent - especially the NAM nest - even some UD helicity tracks lol

After seeing outlooks like 6/29/12 I tend not to rule *anything* out completely until we are right up on the event. We've seen several/many times when we are barely in a 5% and end up in a higher end SLGT or even moderate. Not saying the setup is at all similar to that - just comparing how things can shift/evolve with severe.

NICE inverted V signature on that sounding. Also...anybody see the day 3 hatching well to our north? Wow.

It's been a while since we've seen a D2 ENH. Nice!

NAM parameters (yes I know it's the NAM at long range) would argue that Wednesday is the better severe potential day perhaps.

@weatherwiz - over on his IG was mentioning some EML potential in that time frame I believe. Something to track locally sure beats the doldrums that can set in pretty quickly. Isaias feels like ancient history already.

If that comes true I'm blaming you entirely.

Definitely hints of fall mornings in the air the past few days. Can't wait for these to become more regular. I'm pretty done with heat and humidity at this point unless it's going to pop off some good storms...

Any storm is a woo storm. Lightning and thunder make most of us pretty happy. The odds of getting minivan sized hail and derecho winds are like 1 in 398375475973498579345 around here.

Maybe a few isolated woo storms today. Nothing to write home about it seems.