Kmlwx

The PVC is a great idea! Couldn't a local government issue a curfew?

Could be. But most will realize that the candy will touch other people's hands prior to being received in your child's candy bag. Doubtful many homeowners are going to go to the lengths of wearing gloves. And you have to be within 6ft to get candy unless you're tossing it into a bag. I know a few counties are already "strongly discouraging" it. I'd assume the more lax jurisdictions will completely allow it and likely the more rural locations as well. I think people will still try - but far less households are going to open their doors. Perhaps the unattended bowls.

I doubt there will be many trick-or-treaters at all. And most events are probably off the table. Lots of bars already shuttered again.

This is the most H20 comment I could have woken up to. Now you have to change your username to FogBoobz

Long range 6z GFS is funny.

SPC has been throwing out mention of the *chance* of severe potential towards next weekend in the D4-8 outlooks the last day or two. Too far out.

Bull-gear went bad. That's about the longest repair that the radar can have to endure. Add that to the fact that ROC (Radar Operations Center) is busy rebuilding the Lake Charles site. Bull-gear requires upwards of 15,000 pounds of equipment to be lifted into the radome and then for the entire unit to be lifted up so the gear can be serviced/replaced.

6 days ahead of schedule is excellent work by ROC. They said the 16th...

Can you imagine this vort pass in prime winter? This is for the Tue/Wed event.

I'm having a hard time remembering what the cloud cover/precip situation was just ahead of the Sept 2012 event. Based on the SPC events page, it looks like that might have been an event that started earlier in the day. We had mesoscale discussions by mid morning it seems. It seems the guidance wants to track the low nearby or even to the southeast. The low being SE of us is going to probably nix any severe potential. We'll need to see if that trends back north and west a bit.

CIPS has backed way off - par for the course.

CIPS is still highlighting this analog - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120918

0z GFS vs 0z Euro at hr144 lol

Euro is like comically slower than last run.

GFS is slower again and appears to be more amped again.

Last 8 runs of GFS.

Man...the 12z Euro looked robust at H5

CMC and ICON also look to have stepped a bit in that direction too. Lots to change but this is one to watch.

12z GFS looks deeper with the trough. Could be trending towards the Euro. Big implications if that's the case. I was surprised CIPS was so hefty given the big difference in the modeling.

Knowing our luck it will slow but only to Wed AM and ruin the entire event due to bad timing.

Sept 18 2012 is showing up in CIPS. That was a day 2 hatched to day 1 moderate day for us. 10 percent tor and 45 percent wind. Lots of reports too. The SE sector does show 2001 at the number 2 analog spot. I'm officially interested. And CIPS is based on the GFS not even the Euro.......

Also of note, CIPS is really lit up for the 120hr mark on the 00z suite. Bullseye maybe a touch NE of some of us, but right in our backyards.

Don't have a lot of time right now, but the 00z Euro H5 maps have a ln overall resemblance to the reanalysis maps from Sept 24 2001. Mainly in that they both have a deep trough axis cutting through the TN area and ridging out west.

Oh snap. I thought we might be done for the year

Sun angle still melts the snow with alarming speed even in late December if the sun is out right after a snow event. Definitely not challenging you - so hope you're not taking it that way. My point is, the only tried and true way to get "long lasting" snow cover is either to get a huge quantity of snow, or some sort of "cap" on the snow cover like a sleet or ice layer. I've even seen snow melt during the day with temps at like 25 or below if the sun is out. Give me January, big snow storm, no big warm up right after and a sleety storm to top it off. 1-3" will be gone quick unless you time a vodka cold airmass right after it.