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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
Kmlwx replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Not diminishing this - but I'm a person who struggles with that some years and sun lamps work fine to alleviate for many. Also - the days will get longer regardless of snow chances. As far as I know the science behind seasonal affective disorder is mainly for the SUN aspect. Nothing to do with snow/cold. Astronomy doesn't care that there are still snow chances - the days get longer no matter what. Unfortunately I think we've grown into a world where not only is social media "poisoning" people - but people get offended really easily. Not saying this is directed at you...but if we continue on this type of path - we're going to be walking on egg shells for eternity -
Well south and east appears to be the site for any action this PM.
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Been busy at work all morning - what a disaster. Maybe we can eke out a rumble of thunder.
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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
Kmlwx replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
12-24 inches of hail. -
The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
Kmlwx replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
You're not one of us :O Show yourself the door. -
The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
Kmlwx replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
384 is fantasy land - but sub 370 hours is money. -
Even in low activity years - it only takes a single day/event to really make a or break our severe season around these parts. A region-wide significant squall line can make a season pretty memorable. Though I'd like multiple storm days ideally. Thunderstorms are one of the few redeeming qualities about triple H weather around here.
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It's March...and even though we probably have a few more winter weather threats ahead...it's time to launch the 2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx thread. Pattern stuff can go in here, discussion leading up to events and more. Same guidelines as past years. Thread will probably idle for a month or two - let's hope for some general excitement this year.
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Outages aren't that high in the immediate metro area it seems.
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Should be dying down a bit by the time you get here - luckily.
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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
Kmlwx replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Rates matter. Are you sure you aren't using hours of light snow as an example. It needs to be coming down at a decent clip to stick well to pavement in March. That much is probably true. -
The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
Kmlwx replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
I don't think that's the argument. Nobody is arguing it will stick around - the argument is whether it can stick on surfaces like pavement during the middle of the day - which it certainly can. -
The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
Kmlwx replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Unfortunately he's not trolling he really believes the stuff he's spewing. -
The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
Kmlwx replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
*weenie* Don't worry that's just the limited resolution of the control member unable to see the sweet sweet white gold *weenie* -
Don't worry - the FV-Weenie model will show a blizzard at that timeframe.
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Yeah - I think CWG is about as good as it gets in terms of communication. Agree 100% Meanwhile - back over to snow here in Colesville, MD. Now plow yet on our dead end street.
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They didn't explicitly have an 8 inch range. They use the probability system. This might be an unpopular opinion - but I think a forecaster is good if they communicate to the public well. I don't think a good forecaster necessarily is the one that nails a forecast to a 2 inch range. The best forecasters these days are the ones that do not hype - and show the range of possibilities. Yeah - a nailed 2 inch forecast range is great - but some of that is also luck. Banding in this area generally precludes any sort of broad brushed uniform amounts anyway.
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Sleeting here still - just did the 2nd clearing of the driveway/walkway and it's definitely not as fluffy as it was earlier. Distinct wet layer and then sleet on top. Harder to shovel.
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4" but after some compaction in Colesville, MD Also it is sleeting here right now.
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Just wait until our rockin' March.
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Amazing that I drove down to Colesville/Silver Spring to my parent's house around 4:30 this morning and it was like a typical drive. Woke up again around 7:45 to a complete blanket of snow. Just finished shoveling the driveway and walkway - haven't measured yet.
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There will be icing concerns as well. Not sure why there are folks out there that are just monitoring the snow aspect.
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Yes. Not sure why people are calling this a "non-event" Really laughable sometimes. Even a relatively moderate snow event putting down 1-4 inches and then sleet/ice is a significant impact event in these parts. I've been steadfast in calling 2-4 inches when asked by coworkers - and then a coating of ice. That's going to be high impact.
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Mostly the only thing missing from the 18z and 6z suites are balloon data. There are TONS of other types of data input at each model cycle (current conditions, airplane reports, satellite derived etc). Maybe you see some evidence of this anecdotally - but it's really just the waver back and forth (windshield wiper effect). Nothing to do with 18z vs 0z etc. Looks like we are on tap for a nice winter storm for most of the area.