Kmlwx

Interestingly - mesoanalysis actually has a relative minimum of DCAPE locally. Better numbers to the north and south. Not so great right around the DC metro.

Definitely not saying it hasn't happened - but I thin those numbers are much more common with warnings (before the criteria was changed to 1 inch hail). In the old days I remember seeing 65mph a lot too with warnings and watches. But 70 for wind and 1-1.5 for hail is about even with the average severe watch around our parts.

Those are pretty standard numbers for out severe tstm watches IMO.

Wow. Early meso with high probs. Nice.

12z NAM nest is a whiff for the DC area

Some of the high res models are unusually robust for today (on the reflectivity maps). The ARW, ARW2 and the NMM all are lighting the area up pretty good this afternoon.

Lovely...can I stay on vacation for another 2 weeks then?

Coming back from vacation tomorrow. Are we tracking anything upcoming in the near future, or is it just wall to wall heat?

If nothing else, at least it has made for some interesting radar watching today. Too bad not every day of heat waves can result in this. Weather has been excessively boring lately.

Man...I wish every day of a heat wave would behave like this. Great little storm in Arundel Mills.

This stuff forming around DC, if it's not relatively intense - may preclude a stronger threat later due to cooling of the air from rain.

It's pretty cloud filled here in Colesville, MD. Some light returns are starting to show up on radar locally as well.

The CU field is mentioned in the latest mesoscale discussion. SPC thinks that the area of CU running from the DC area up to SEPA may be a corridor for new development. Also mentions the surging outflow from the storms to the north and east. On visible sat, the field in general looks a little more agitated now. The outflow is clearly visible on the satellite images as it is just barely into the NEern tip of Maryland and into Delaware.

I think we have to hope that the outflow from the Philly activity can join up with some of the boundaries like the bay breeze and such around us to trigger stuff. Dews have some down at some stations in the area - still high along the bay.

Visible satellite of that Philly cluster looks like a nuke went off! They are getting walloped.

5000 SBCAPE on mesoanalysis.

Seems both the NAM nest and the HRRR (even with any dew mixing) keep areas at least a bit inland (west) from the bay in the game. Annapolis might still be a good place for storms. Definitely will be a nowcast type of event.

Microburst parameter looking good in the urban corridor from DC to Philly.

Weird shape for a meso. Slight now added too.

HRRR is pretty darn similar with regards to sim reflectivity. Somebody EAST of a line running from like Shrewsbury, PA to Largo, MD is going to get a nice storm this afternoon. NAM nest even has a really good stripe of UD helicity along the MD/DE border.

12z NAM nest really blows up a complex for NE MD, areas directly adjacent to the bay, and the Eastern Shore. Misses DC verbatim - but would make things interesting at least. Could be some good distant storm photos from the DC area. Of course I picked to work out of Silver Spring today instead of Arundel Mills.

ML lapse rates on mesoanalysis aren't as putrid as they usually are.

I just went out my front door and looked NE. I think it's a bit close to get anything good - you can definitely see the storm, but it's just messy looking. Going to have to see if it holds organization or if it collapses at some point. I'd bet on the collapse with some outflow rushing out - but the question is when. It's in an area that did have a bit more shear than areas to the south of DC - so it's got that going for it. Also no shortage of CAPE. I think if it holds together it may stay just east of me... ETA: Echo tops have come down from their peak as well. And if you loop that product - it argues for it to be a bit east of you and me. ETAv2: VIL product looped shows it had a good trajectory for us maybe - but has acquired a bit more southerly component more recently. We need the westerly motion to resume.

If that particular storm holds intensity and the same direction - it might clip me here near Arundel Mills. I should think about getting in the car and heading a bit east if it holds, maybe. If nothing else maybe a good photo op.

Also - talk about an odd motion for a cell in these parts. NE to SW essentially. Really nice hook on the base reflectivity. Nice hail marker on it too.