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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    That sure looks like a supercell for Loudoun
  2. Kmlwx
    Qdoba > Chipotle
  3. Kmlwx
    Crapvection around now
  4. Kmlwx
    Not saying this hasn't been the case in prior years - but this year seemingly has been significant in terms of distance between CAM solutions even up to the morning of events.
  5. Kmlwx
    The pattern continues as well with me being in the office tomorrow...always.
  6. Kmlwx
    NAM nest sends pretty robust UH tracks over the area tomorrow.
  7. Kmlwx
    So far this is matching HRRR that did show that "bow" but if you looked at the wind gust product on those runs - there was almost no severe wind with it.
  8. Kmlwx
    Good demonstration of how more resolution is not always automatically "better." There's probably a "happy medium" where errors can be smoothed while still having good resolution...but I imagine if we had like 0.25km resolution models it would be chaotic at best. Until better computing comes along I guess.
  9. Kmlwx
    The RRFS looked pretty good too. I feel like it has tended to be very bullish on convection this season.
  10. Kmlwx
    Cloudy and dreary is the theme today (so far). Not seeing much clearing potential on visible sat either. But we'll see if we can get robust convection later with dewpoints being high.
  11. Kmlwx
    CSU MLP has a decent area of 5+% TOR for Sunday.
  12. Kmlwx
    Sunday still looks like it has a chance. Maybe next Thursday too?
  13. Kmlwx
    Sunday has a chance according to CSU
  14. Kmlwx
    It's worse to our west (like WV). At least some sunshine has rebounded CAPE above 1000 in the metros seemingly. But still probably isn't going to do much. WV is devoid completely of CAPE
  15. Kmlwx
    Yep. Today looks mostly dead for us save for some overnight downpours here or there.
  16. Kmlwx
    One thing that SPC mentioned in the relevant mesoscale discussion for the ongoing potential derecho - is that the areas east and southeast are pretty well hindered by earlier convective activity. They seem to think this may reduce the threat as it heads ESE but also that new and stronger activity may form on the southern flank. This would be inline with the CAMs and would lead to probably nada for us.
  17. Kmlwx
    It's heading pretty east for now - but these things tend to bend more and more SE with time. Additionally, I feel like subsequent linear MCS lines tend to go more south than the preceding ones. But worth watching how big of a bend to the SE it starts curving. If it's significant probably game over for storms for us.
  18. Kmlwx
    Completely agree - the obvious answer here is that as repeated MCS activity rolls through - it pushes the overall boundary a little further south each time. Thus - the "train tracks" are more south vs yesterday. I think it CAN happen - usually MCSs on the SAME DAY suffer from this more - but it's definitely a factor even next day. I think what to watch for is if something to our SW can REALLY get going - perhaps it can throw off a cold pool just east enough to get some development on the "bookend" NW side.
  19. Kmlwx
    The HRRR is pretty much nada now as well.
  20. Kmlwx
    The 13z SPC D1 outlook update still keeps us on the outside looking in. 15% well SW of the metro areas.
  21. Kmlwx
    I'm not sure I inherently "trust" any of the CAMs in setups like this. Even looking at all of them and taking an "average" can be off. I do think the HRRR (probably due to the fact that it's hourly) does tend to eventually latch onto something close to reality - but even then it can have times where it's sim reflectivity for 2 hours in the future doesn't even match reality. But yes - we shall see! Wouldn't be surprised if literally nothing happens locally today - but also wouldn't be surprised if there's a decent swath of 50-65mph wind across a good bit of the area.
  22. Kmlwx
    The 09z RRFS sweeps some activity through the area around 2-3z. The CAMs are a mixed bag today (same as yesterday). Some completely skunk most of the area while others sweep some stuff through. "We just can't know"
  23. Kmlwx
    Some breaks in the clouds to the west on visible sat. Devil's advocate arguments here could be the usual "the crapvection might lay down boundaries" or sometimes the preceding rainfall can help us stay moist rather than mixing to lower dews. I still think failure is a very high potential today - but my eyes are still open (for now).
  24. Kmlwx
    The NAM seems to insist that the big activity later will stay back in SPC's outlooked area and even more more S or even SW. The HRRR differs in that it spawns activity in addition to that stuff and sweeps it through later on. I actually can easily see a scenario where the HRRR is right - depends on if the stuff that forms can cold pool and such (similar to yesterday). Let's go from a 5% to a moderate
  25. Kmlwx
    And going by the SPC outlook - we are PRIMED for an SPC "catch up" day - all kidding. But days like today CAN surprise.
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