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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Photographers out there...B-52 is going to do a low flyover of Arlington Cemetery around 11:40 apparently. The aircraft is currently holding over the Calvert County area. Anybody from from JB Andrews WNW to Alexandria/Arlington and then just NW of Arlington may get a photo-op from this. People farther out - it will depend how the aircraft departs the area. Guessing MoCo is out of luck as this airframe will probably head back to Barksdale after.
  2. Kmlwx
    The HRRR is actually kind of solid for some of us this afternoon/evening. But almost none of the other guidance seems to agree with it. 6z NAM 3km was snooze worthy and so were the ARW twins. ETA: The HRDPS is pretty okay as well.
  3. Kmlwx
    #derechoredux
  4. Kmlwx
    Bit of thunderstorm activity to the west of the metros. Obviously sub-severe - but rumbles would be cool.
  5. Kmlwx
    It will work only because we failed so badly during winter.
  6. Kmlwx
    That would be SO fitting....take away my snowfall contest win as well
  7. Kmlwx
    What in the world
  8. Kmlwx
    CIPS and GFS are pretty quiet for the next couple weeks it looks like...so unless something sneaks up on us we may be back in snooze mode. The cooler weather coming back probably will squash instability and preclude any spring severe while it's around. I'm hoping for a last hard freeze to cut down on some of the bugs already out ugh. We'll have to see what late April and early May hold for thunder chances
  9. Kmlwx
    The storms near Capon Bridge actually have had an uptick in lightning production.
  10. Kmlwx
    Meh
  11. Kmlwx
    The few chances we've had already this year have been failing on timing. We need something to come through during peak hearing or just after and also not while we are wedged north of a warm front.
  12. Kmlwx
    Pouring in Colesville, MD
  13. Kmlwx
    You got me a little more enthused when you said this storm wouldn't go quietly...but yeah the timing sucks. It has looked pretty meh for us from the get go.
  14. Kmlwx
    I was thinking the same thing after I read his message and then looked at the map lol
  15. Kmlwx
    Meh
  16. Kmlwx
    Bullish!
  17. Kmlwx
    12z FV3 actually looks pretty good on sim reflectivity.
  18. Kmlwx
    LWX mentions lack of instability...which we already knew would be the issue here. Few good analogs still showing up in CIPS at the 72hr frame. Better timing/better instability with this probably would have allowed for a pretty sizeable severe risk. I don't really see anything to suggest major changes from what we are expecting though. Gusty line of showers/storms Thur night seems like a good bet, though.
  19. Kmlwx
    First time driving through PA?
  20. Kmlwx
    12z CIPS guidance is a lot of nothing and still a few eye opening ones lower on the list. Apr 16, 2011 is still showing up, February 2016 is showing up and then a few less widespread events as well.
  21. Kmlwx
    The 18z GFS suggests more like a 3z arrival of a "line" of storms on Thur night. That 3 hour difference could help a bit.
  22. Kmlwx
    My PWS registered a 3-4 degree drop in temperature and a big time drop in sunlight/solar radiation. BUT - there were quite a few clouds streaming in too so the drop was also caused by that.
  23. Kmlwx
    18z NAM at range...(FWIW) - brings a line through around 6z Friday morning. That timing absolutely sucks. April 2011 was showing up on some of the analogs. Probably a very minor version of that...minus the like 12+ hours of Tornado Watches Had instability been better - or the timing maybe this could have been a bigger deal. We'll see if things shift/adjust at all as we close.
  24. Kmlwx
    The dot on the sun? That's a sunspot currently bubbling up on the sun! I think at last check the magnetic field of it was pretty stable, though - so not a big risk for flares.
  25. Kmlwx
    From Colesville, MD. ETA: This was achieved using an 8" dobsonian telescope (not motorized) w/42mm eyepiece and an S24 Ultra manually held up to the eyepiece in 200 megapixel mode. 9.25" solar filter used on the tube itself. Crude astrophotography is definitely possible using less than stellar setups. Just have to have the patience. Non-motorized/computer controller telescopes like this are sub-$600 and some are much lower even. Downside is the 30-50 pounds of weight they can carry with them.
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