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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    And of course in our age of declining news quality....WUSA9 posts a story calling it a "Comet" sheesh
  2. Kmlwx
    There was a bolide/fireball/meteor at 2:38:03am EDT. Check your house cameras if you have them! It was in the southwestern sky with a steep angle. Of course the AMS fireballs page is down due to a cyberattack - but from social media posts, it seems this was seen (so far) from as far away as CT and VA - but likely to be wider). The NASA All-Sky camera site won't update until around 9am but it was BRIGHT. Happened to get lucky being out with the dog for 30 seconds right as it happened. Bright green flash. The actual bolide didn't get onto my cameras but the flash(es) sure did. Wyze cams at my place in Odenton and my folk's place in Colesville both caught the flashes. Looked like transformers exploding behind the trees. Would have been more visible if it had happened after the leaves fell.
  3. Kmlwx
    Was just going to post about that too. The other *possibility* is if the bowing line segment approaching Stephens City can surge a bit more east versus south east - it wouldn't take much trajectory change to get at least the southern half of MoCo in on the show.
  4. Kmlwx
    Still a good bit of MLCIN over the DC/Baltimore area on mesoanalysis. DCAPE is not good NE of the Potomac essentially but ramps up quickly S/SW of there.
  5. Kmlwx
    Unless more north development occurs - most of us in Maryland are going to get missed. The bowing line segment now W of Romney is on track to go through NoVA - perhaps as far south as like Warrenton/Manassas. Even Loudoun/Fairfax may miss out.
  6. Kmlwx
    One thing in the weenie category is that all the days we've been in slight risks - the best has continually (until last night) been north of our area. Maybe now with the threat by SPC to the SW we will get an areawide shellacking.
  7. Kmlwx
    Yeah the Detroit and Cleveland WFO radars are sampling 90+mph winds at like 4-5kft
  8. Kmlwx
    Yep. Could get more showers/storms but this is horrible timing.
  9. Kmlwx
    Mixed bag on the models. NAM nest seemed to like Friday
  10. Kmlwx
    Yeah pretty much a non-event (but got some rain) here in Colesville. I'm not super enthused about tomorrow as well.
  11. Kmlwx
    Beneficial rain in Colesville. A touch of thunder but that's it (so far)
  12. Kmlwx
    Also an uptick in lightning near Barnesville, MD ETA - radar presentation loops LEWP-esque
  13. Kmlwx
    The 12z NAM nest earlier seemed to want to blow a huge line through at like 2am. Not seeing that on other models. I think this line is the only show - especially if we are overturned.
  14. Kmlwx
    Outflow evident on radar now
  15. Kmlwx
    The western part of the line near Bedford, PA has some of the highest echo tops and plenty of lightning. Could be a good sign for those a bit more on the fringe. Also, guidance has had runs where it had the stuff going almost south or even southwest a bit.
  16. Kmlwx
    The trajectory looks great especially for the north and eastern quarter/half of the area. But it does seem like there is a tendency to build convection on the western side of the complex. We'll have to see how the intensity trends as it gets closer but for now that line/bow looks fierce.
  17. Kmlwx
    The CAMs are really all over the place (seems to be a common theme this year). I could technically see chunks of the area getting skunked through the whole week...The game of weather lottery!
  18. Kmlwx
    It sounds like it will be a process - but lack of budget/funding and retiring faculty. It's very unfortunate!
  19. Kmlwx
    Also related but only partially - and apologies if already posted. Saint Louis University is sunsetting their meteorology program and discontinuing CIPS on their site. But Mizzou has agreed to start hosting it - the new link to CIPS is here --> https://analog.missouri.edu/
  20. Kmlwx
    SPC discusses potential/conditional need for CIG1 and higher probabilities for D2 depending on timing and such.
  21. Kmlwx
    Though I will also say both the NAM and the GFS keep favoring areas to our north and east...hopefully it can bleed south.
  22. Kmlwx
    That NAM run also suggests the EML plume (at least somewhat) will be in play.
  23. Kmlwx
    Quoting myself but now settled in at the office... My hunch is that ONE of the day performs for many of us - whether it's divided up into 2 days remains to be seen. But even with what @vortex95 said - I think most of us would be skeptical of seeing consecutive days impact the exact same areas. Perhaps the first day hits the M/D line counties more and skunks the rest of us, then perhaps the next day is more of the metro area(s), then a bit too far south for the bulk of the subforum the following day.
  24. Kmlwx
    I'm encouraged given the favorable things in place. Then again - we have been burned many times by so many different failure methods. Will be curious to see what guidance looks like as we go forward in time and how the AI/ML guidance trends.
  25. Kmlwx
    Close enough for extended period!
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