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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    We haven't done that in several years I believe. I think it can stay here for the time being. Or we can just stay here in general. It's up to the mods. We tend to treat severe thunderstorm events differently than winter weather. Also it tends to be much easier to keep track of things and these severe threads don't get out of hand like the winter weather ones do. Main reason for separating winter threads is because of how much junk clogs them up within minutes.
  2. Kmlwx
    Not a fan of Cappucci in general but yeah seems many of the folks on social media are buzzing about this. I remain reserved but it definitely has some bite potential.
  3. Kmlwx
    Logan Giles over on X is honking hard for this event.
  4. Kmlwx
    CIPS has been more anemic than the CSU-MLP page. We'll see how both pages evolve over the next few days.
  5. Kmlwx
    04/19/2013 has been showing up high in the analogs on CIPS for a while now.
  6. Kmlwx
    Yes but if we go by @Eskimo Joe's superstition - these tend to fail. Our best days often are when SPC plays catch up - I think anecdotally this is sometimes true but it's more probably just mental in that when it's hyped up and it's only a middle of the road event, it sticks in our minds.
  7. Kmlwx
    As LWX indicated - the thermodynamic environment will be the big question. It seems like the models are in fairly good agreement that the shear environment is going to be pretty insane. Seeing soundings with like 65+ knots of 0-6km shear. Helicity values even for the 0-1km layer are absurd too. But some of these same soundings have CAPE values fairly low. I agree that linear is more likely with maybe embedded circulations. But my question is whether this ends up being one of those pencil thin lines with limited lightning if instability is meager. We'll see - but with those shear numbers I think updrafts could get obliterated as well - we've seen that in similar events before...
  8. Kmlwx
    CSU-MLP for Monday has wide area of 30% and a max shown of 42.6 right near DC...with hatching showing up in Southern Maryland, SEVA and NE NC. For March - that is extremely impressive....
  9. Kmlwx
    Honestly the orientation if nothing else of the precip on the models reminds me of some dynamic spring systems. Definitely eyebrow raising to get a Day 5 15%. I'm still not convinced it will be anything substantial, though. We'll see how it looks in NAM range.
  10. Kmlwx
    CSU-MLP really lit up for big chunk of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for Monday. Not major - but 15%
  11. Kmlwx
    You're too kind - I'm just the moron who starts the thread ever year. I'll give all the accolades to the pros!
  12. Kmlwx
    Maybe it'll be one of those days where a lone supercell does something in a narrow swath - but nada otherwise.
  13. Kmlwx
    I know there's a lot of mixed thoughts about the CIG hatching - but this is probably where it is going to have a good amount of utility regardless of how confused people are. Bear in mind that prior to the new outlooks - this map would just be a straight 2% tornado prob for us.
  14. Kmlwx
    Likely first MEH of the year for us. Woooooooo storms!
  15. Kmlwx
    CSU MLP has increased our odds for Wednesday.
  16. Kmlwx
    I think there could be some non-zero chances into next week. CSU MLP page looks "decent enough for this time of year" for next Wednesday, for example. It's always going to be slim pickings in March (and even most of April) - but I'm intrigued that as soon as warmer temps rolled in some of the predictive tools ramped up just a touch. Give us some unseasonably warm/humid days in April into May and something will probably pop off with how dynamics systems can still be that time of year.
  17. Kmlwx
    The CFS monthlies seemingly have a potential NW flow H5 pattern (at least in general/smoothed terms) same with CanSIPS. For June.
  18. Kmlwx
    It's definitely a little wacky looking - I'm not sure other than doing completely separate color-coded maps how they could have implemented this differently. I like the idea/principle, though!
  19. Kmlwx
    The 2nd half of the coming week has some minor potential. GFS has some modest supercell composite parameters - and even the Euro has some instability around. Interesting enough for early March, at least. Nothing substantial, of course. CSU-MLP has some minor probs painted over some of our area Friday.
  20. Kmlwx
    I wasn't aware of this! I've been not monitoring as closely due to work. Thank you!!! Imagine a 90% wind
  21. Kmlwx
    I'm doing it....the 2026 iteration starts today. With potential warm weather on the horizon, we will likely see the start of the pencil thing gusty shower line season. @yoda - I feel like you're usually on board with early tracking with me. Excited to get back to our smaller spring/summer crew...The winter weenies can take their bickering away soon enough. As much as I hate summer heat - I tolerate it for thunderstorms. And now....I will go back to watching CFS/weeklies/CSU-MLP/CIPS pages for signs of our first threats!
  22. Kmlwx
    I wish for 115 degree temperatures and 80 degree dew points for you then.
  23. Kmlwx
    And honestly most bugs are more hardy than people give them credit for. You really need more than just one night of hard freeze to kill most. Many can just sort of slow down their metabolism and hunker down.
  24. Kmlwx
    Whether it happens or not....it's like 8+ days away...come on....
  25. Kmlwx
    You and @osfan24 make a great team
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