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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    It's overall a very messy looking radar so far.
  2. Kmlwx
    Warned storm approaching Luray looks semi-interesting on velocity.
  3. Kmlwx
    The cell near Moorefield, WV intensified relatively quickly. We'll see how things trend the next 1-2 hours.
  4. Kmlwx
    The watch has been issued.
  5. Kmlwx
    Yeah CAMs have been *relatively* consistent with pushing some sort of loose cluster of storms through the DC area.
  6. Kmlwx
    The 12z CSU MLP update re-increased the 5% area for TOR and also inched the 30% wind closer to MBY.
  7. Kmlwx
    No changes really on the 13z SPC outlook.
  8. Kmlwx
    Good amount of sun on the way to work this morning.
  9. Kmlwx
    FWIW - the 12z CSU MLP maps have reduced quite a bit.
  10. Kmlwx
    I've heard (usually from @high risk ) that the HRRR tends to overmix out low level moisture - could that be a factor here?
  11. Kmlwx
    I'm more "in" on this one than the prior events. It could still fizzle - and I certainly don't think it's going to be an "outbreak" - but storm coverage has higher confidence it seems - and the shear does raise some eyebrows! Also I'll be in the office - which seems to guarantee good storms (my office is in the core of the building with no windows - so I essentially miss anything that happens during cool events).
  12. Kmlwx
    The CAMs (to varying degrees) all have decent amounts of storm coverage too - unlike some of the prior events recently.
  13. Kmlwx
    CSU MLP page agrees with an area of 5% TOR
  14. Kmlwx
    I don't expect anything - more just saying under the right conditions it could lay a boundary down or moisten us better.
  15. Kmlwx
    Weenie comment - but I know we've had some events where early showers/precip gave us some REALLY soupy air and if clearing happens it could intensify fuel for later.
  16. Kmlwx
    This likely will reduce/preclude any significant threat later except for areas that see more sun and do not get stabilized early.
  17. Kmlwx
    Pretty robust stuff for the time of day.
  18. Kmlwx
    I wonder if that's a factor of the larger nature of tropical systems and them being more susceptible to the larger scale upper-level pattern(s). With severe, so much is dependent on much smaller scale factors that are below the "resolution" of a broad AI model that might just look at the overall pattern.
  19. Kmlwx
    12z CIPS guidance is a bit more enthusiastic. One analog that has been persistently showing up in some of the domains on CIPS is 6/21/21
  20. Kmlwx
    Ehhh - with severe I'll keep watching until morning of. Always surprises since storms are smaller scale than snowstorms generally.
  21. Kmlwx
    I've also noticed the "FengWu" ones seem to be more bullish than the other one. Maybe it's just not well calibrated or something?
  22. Kmlwx
    CSU MLP is pretty garden variety (15% in a big, broad area). CIPS is pretty unenthused. NCAR is still heavily bullish. I think most of us know this at this point is not going to be an outbreak in our region. But let's see how things evolve with Wednesday convection and timing and such.
  23. Kmlwx
    Also not that it matters a ton (also it's being sunset soon) - the SREF maps over on the SPC page are already showing a mean Derecho Composite of 3 for part of Thursday afternoon/evening.
  24. Kmlwx
    I *will* say that the NCAR AI maps are VERY robust for Thursday - but they do tend to look at lot more serious than CSU and CIPS in general. So take with a grain of salt.
  25. Kmlwx
    Truth! Severe weather around here is a perfect example of what tiny factors can change about an event...no two events are the same even with seemingly nearly identical parameters. Snow gets all the glory of forecast busts - but I really think severe weather busts are MUCH more finicky.
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