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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    They are just so unusual and finicky - and they often are super cagey at range. And the best we can *usually* hope for is a modified EML that loses a lot of punch as it gets to use. The "big events" are the ones that really have a robust one. I haven't done a deep dive - but I'm guessing June 2008 had one, we all know June 2012 had one. Minus an EML - tropical action going to our west is always a good bet for tornadoes.
  2. Kmlwx
    Way out there of course - but the 12z GFS pushes the system through too early in the day I think,
  3. Kmlwx
    It could be July/August and we'd find a way to cloud over just in time to squash instability
  4. Kmlwx
    That discussion indicates we will have similar issues to our prior severe "threats" this year so far. Thermodynamics likely to be lacking. Though again - the further we get into spring, the "easier" it gets to not get wedged in...though if you ask Eskimo Joe you can probably still count on getting wedged in even into June lol.
  5. Kmlwx
    It would be so fitting.
  6. Kmlwx
    Sub-severe gusty showers possible on Thursday afternoon/evening.
  7. Kmlwx
    Looks like things will be quiet for the next block of time locally. Still worth watching that March 25th timeframe but seems to have trended away from a severe threat.
  8. Kmlwx
    Radar looks decent for those that are near the storms. Still not much locally in the close metro areas
  9. Kmlwx
    Cell near Baseye may try
  10. Kmlwx
    There's been almost no progress east with the line. We are past peak heating. If we get to 8pm or so and it's still lagging out to the west we are probably just going to get some showers and sub-severe gusts of wind. Another case where synoptic wind may end up being the bigger story.
  11. Kmlwx
    SPC is not enthused. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0235.html
  12. Kmlwx
    The HRRR seems to struggle to get the storms to move east (as @wxmeddler just indicated he sees as well) - The 18z NAM nest rolling out now seems a little more compelled to roll the storms east.
  13. Kmlwx
    Yeah that one looks solid right now!
  14. Kmlwx
    Nice to see you chiming in! I wonder if we actually will get some decent instability with the sunshine arriving for many of us. But my main limiting factor at that point would be if the storms arrive too late once the sun has already set. HRRR seems to suggest it could be 0-3z before some of us see that line.
  15. Kmlwx
    The HRRR still brings some UH tracks near the DC metro area after 0z. We'll see...
  16. Kmlwx
    Nah this time I'm legitimately being a deb. We likely are stuck at the Yoda-tier for the system.
  17. Kmlwx
    I could also see a scenario where the stuff coming up through VA into the DC area now precludes any instability from really taking hold and stabilizing us before any later line. That seems pretty likely...
  18. Kmlwx
    Gotta love my interesting weather reverse psychology.
  19. Kmlwx
    HRRR (not saying it's right) has been showing that kind of lifting NE and not making a ton of progress into the metros. Latest run seems to show some backbuilding that might "get it done" but it could be sub-severe. To be honest - I thought this could end up being a beefier version of the event a week or two ago - but I now think this will be under that. We'll see how things lay out in the coming hours!
  20. Kmlwx
    The more I see, the more I really believe the scenario where the OH/PA stuff goes mostly NW/N of many of us, and the other activity goes S/SE is actually what is going to happen. Obviously this is a very MBY(s) opinion. Perhaps the M/D line counties get clipped by the NW stuff and Southern Maryland and similar locales get the SE stuff...but I'm pretty lackluster right now on anything for DC/MoCo/PG/AACo and similar areas. Precipitation, sure - but severe I'm questioning whether I jinxed the local folks with the WxWatcher007 blanket.
  21. Kmlwx
    Meh
  22. Kmlwx
    Funny how weather works. All along I'd have thought if there was an upgrade it would be in the Carolinas.
  23. Kmlwx
    11z HRRR = it sends a supercell or some intense line segment right through Northern Virginia and Central Maryland in the 19-20z timeframe.
  24. Kmlwx
    21z SREF has continued the trend of pushing some better parameter trends towards us. Some of this, I guess could just be being closer to game-time and having members coverage. However, a look at the last 6 or so runs of the "Significant Tornado Ingredients" product shows a pretty clear trend. Of course, we are on the northern edge - but it really is honking hard it seems for an area from NC into parts of VA for a tornado threat. Again...it's the SREF but it does seem to sometimes at least be good to look at for where things are trending even if the run verbatim isn't accurate.
  25. Kmlwx
    0z GFS had a system around the 25th that looked good for severe potentially. 6z seems much less favorable but it's worth watching.
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