Jump to content

Kmlwx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    13,194

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    The Loudoun cell looks like it might be splitting or bowing out.
  2. Kmlwx
    I thought they might go higher on the hail in that MCD. Still seems like they are a bit uncertain about the ultimate outcome.
  3. Kmlwx
    Clouds are moving in from the west. That could be a wrinkle to things...or it could provide a focus for activity perhaps.
  4. Kmlwx
    No changes for our area on the 1630z SPC D1 outlook. I guess SPC still has big questions about initiation and coverage. The subsequent HRRR runs will be interesting to see if they keep that trend of convecting in that afternoon timeframe.
  5. Kmlwx
    My gut feeling says no with so many funding cuts. But we are the DC area...so who knows. The more boundaries the merrier! Shows clear as day on LWX coming south.
  6. Kmlwx
    It's definitely fueled up out there. Would be a good day for a special 18z sounding... Sitting at 84 degrees and dew of 74ish but I think it's running a bit high. It's been bouncing between 72 and 75 on my PWS.
  7. Kmlwx
    Also of note - overnight CSU MLP wind graphic put the red over us.
  8. Kmlwx
    12z sounding from IAD/LWX
  9. Kmlwx
    Many of the CAMS really are not enthused about the overnight stuff locally - perhaps for southern portions of the area. That will be interesting to see if they are correct.
  10. Kmlwx
  11. Kmlwx
  12. Kmlwx
    Nice little cell to start the day is passing just to my north along the MC/HC line. Hopefully we clear out and don't deal with remnant clouds all day. Satellite behind this stuff looks fine. Places that get a little precip (even if not storms) could "benefit" for storm chances later via the additional moisture on the ground for higher dewpoints.
  13. Kmlwx
    I'm yet again spam posting...but this thread isn't generally SUPER active so who cares I think if that MCS up in PA can "die" or fade out somewhat near the area - it could spit out/lay down some boundaries to aid in the less clear forcing for later on. Then it will be a question of seeing if the cap holds, or if we can get some isolated activity to pop in the region. The other possibility is (as we've discussed already) - that the upstream convection from the moderate risk could surge through some part of the area later on tonight. Similar to winter...the more chances that are presented - the better the odds of at least one working out. We failed on the morning MCS this AM up in PA. Next we'll see if there's any afternoon initiation (maybe higher terrain?) and then the eyes will be on the overnight stuff. While NONE of these are certain to get any of us...I do think the highest overall odds would come with the MCS activity tonight from the west/SW. The question at that point would be whether it becomes elevated convection or remains surface based/severe.
  14. Kmlwx
    One unscientific note on the MCS up in PA - previous model runs yesterday had that coming through shaped like a long NW-SE stretching "arm." In reality it looks like a reverse L shape. Had that horizontal part of the L been straight downward like in the prior model forecasts, it likely would have been a closer call for parts of our area. Let's see how the afternoon plays out in terms of instability etc. I'm not "out" but I have tempered my expectations until I see a legit/more certain threat.
  15. Kmlwx
    Entirely possible some of us get completely missed today. The NAM nest is a snoozefest for many of us. The 6z HRRR had the good line tonight for mainly southern portions of the area it seemed. It will all come down to how the upstream activity develops and propagates. I sound like a winter weather weenie...but it'll ultimately come down to nowcasting. I'm doubtful ANY model is going to 100% nail the development and movement of any MCS coming from the W or SW
  16. Kmlwx
    The 12z runs of the NSSL-MPAS triplets all have a robust MCS/line coming through Fri night into Sat AM.
  17. Kmlwx
    Also - spam posting but oh well... Not saying it WILL happen - but some of our higher end days have come when there's a higher risk a day or two ahead to our west/NW and then SPC adjusts in real time to extend the threat into our region. If instability doesn't wane too much after dark tomorrow night - I think the overnight period into early Sat AM could be some really rough weather. Again...NOT the same setup but remember June 2012 I think the day before we had a 5%... ETA: Yes...DC proper didn't even have a slight risk on the DAY 1 1630z outlook that day. Talk about "that escalated quickly"
  18. Kmlwx
    One mostly non-scientific thing is we tend to have "streaks" So a cluster of 2 days of decent severe threat would be fitting with EML influence. As @Eskimo Joe has said for years...the EML/MLLRs really can allow for more wiggle room in the other parameters. Also...it could be the start of a stretch when maybe we get some more storm events. Not saying back-to-back but perhaps not going weeks between storm threats.
  19. Kmlwx
    The complex that arrives after dark reminds me of a way toned down June 2012 lol. Obviously temps nowhere close to that. But a line surging across the mountains.
  20. Kmlwx
    Many of the CAMs are pretty underwhelming in terms of sim reflectivity. It will all be a question of whether there is enough forcing and the cap being weak enough to break. I still think the thoughts of the threat being isolated but intense are solid. Wherever a cell develops/tracks could get really hefty hail... I think for the majority of the area this could be a dud. The other thing I saw at least one model showing was a pretty good "leftover" line coming into the area Saturday AM from the west.
  21. Kmlwx
    My guess is WaPo has some sort of partnership with the provider (Foreca) and the editing staff forces them to use it. I highly doubt that Ian, for example would use that given his own choice. I would even take the HRRR on one of it's bust days over a radar tool like that.
  22. Kmlwx
    The CWG "forecast radar" should really not be shown. It's garbage. It doesn't seem to take into effect the forward speed of storms. If you look at it right now, for example - it indicates the storms/rain in Southern Maryland are just going to rocket northward magically. It also doesn't morph the storms realistically at all...it just takes a snapshot and a general motion and essentially copy and pastes it a increments.
  23. Kmlwx
    It seems to have that pocket of upper 70s dewpoints to the south of DC in the area surrounding the Tidal Potomac. The dewpoints outside of that little pocket seem more realistic - and subsequently CAPE values seem more realistic as well (and even then may still be on the high side.
  24. Kmlwx
    I'll go with the under lol...by a lot.
  25. Kmlwx
    If there is in fact morning activity on Friday, it could be one of those days where the morning stuff lays down boundaries to serve as focuses for afternoon storms to trigger. I wonder if Friday is an example of a type of day where coverage may be quite low but the storms that do form will have A LOT of energy all to themselves. Narrow swath of serious hail under a supercell sort of day? It's seeming like by Saturday the front might be too far beyond most of us to serve as a 2nd severe day - maybe for eastern areas?
×
×
  • Create New...