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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    The 3km NAM skunks us. The HRRR is more robust.
  2. Kmlwx
    The white "barriers" at Gringos and Mariachi's in Potomac blew over (and a chair went into the middle of Park Potomac Ave). Pretty good storm. Hoping the commute isn't too bad by the time I head east around 5:30. For tomorrow/Wed the models and SPC want to favor SW of us...but as we saw today - the models waffled a lot. So I think a lot of us remain in the game.
  3. Kmlwx
    Some useful terms for everyone to remember: MCC = Mesoscale Convective Complex (a specific type of MCS) MCS = Mesoscale Convective System (of which a derecho is one type of MCS). Derecho = a very intense MCS with damaging wind (long track and wide swath)
  4. Kmlwx
    be tough to bust at this point (famous last words)
  5. Kmlwx
    Updated Day 2 looks angled too far south for many of us. But these things can be VERY finicky to predict (case in point - June 2012). And if you watch the June 29, 2012 radar loop, that sort of was angled more SE but drove east for us.
  6. Kmlwx
    Everything "feels" juiced today. At least for heavy rain. Was driving from Odenton back to my folk's house in Colesville and it started lightly raining and I wasn't even under any returns on the LWX radar.
  7. Kmlwx
    The GFS seems to be pretty insistent that something might pop and at least get close to the CONUS before a recurve.
  8. Kmlwx
    The GFS has been pretty insistent something develops and heads at least in the general direction of the CONUS. We'll see.
  9. Kmlwx
    Stats are funny/cool. One thing I've always considered is that on some potential severe weather days, the CIPS guidance will often have a locally higher "bullseye" of probabilities roughly centered over the DC area. I do not think that is necessarily purely authentic. Since it is correlated to storm reports in the analogs it finds, it is reasonable to assume that it will highlight areas where there are more storm reports in an analog....and of course, a heavily populated urban area is going to have a higher concentration on a comparable severe event that happens over a rural area.
  10. Kmlwx
    Looking at the ensembles and other guidance, I do think if the overall 500mb pattern is true...we might get a shot at more NW flow-style severe events beyond the first week of August. While not perfect matches, I do see an similar angle to the 500mb flow from some of our notable severe events from the past.
  11. Kmlwx
    Meanwhile all the PEPCO hate from the 2000s and 2010s has largely faded. Their tree trimming program and preventive maintenance has been absurd the past 10 years or so. An event like yesterday in the earlier 2000s could have easily have 250K+ customers without power in the region.
  12. Kmlwx
    Looking ahead, the various AI guidance is pretty darn quiet (quieter than I've seen in a while) for the next 8+ days. Beyond that, we'll see. I know we have some heat lovers...but I personally am glad we are at least beyond the peak climo heat period in the area.
  13. Kmlwx
    Yeah I just saw that on PulsePoint! Power outage counts from BGE are surprisingly tame given that wind. Looks like some wires down on Patuxent Rd down near Woodwardville as well.
  14. Kmlwx
    Heck yeah it was! Those winds were impressive. And then the area of rotation went right over us! You have any damage? I don't see any from the windows but the power was flickering a ton. I wonder how the Waugh Chapel Substation fared.
  15. Kmlwx
    There might be something trying to form near Ashton/Cloverly in MoCo. Seems like a bow trying to get a notch.
  16. Kmlwx
    The terminal radars are going to be very useful as always during this. We are VERY spoiled by having this sort of radar coverage in our region. TDCA has an intense wind signature showing up in MoCo just N of Gaithersburg. It might be trying to form a little "notch" too.
  17. Kmlwx
    That always shows up during precipitation/storms
  18. Kmlwx
    LWX going with the mega warnings
  19. Kmlwx
    Mesoanalysis hail parameters have been increasing the past few hours as well. Matches up with the hail portions of the warnings ramping up.
  20. Kmlwx
    Saving the most meh for last!
  21. Kmlwx
    ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1780 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...MARYLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 281608Z - 281815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WHICH IS LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS, A FEW AREAS OF MORE BROKEN CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR FILTERED HEATING , WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-45 KTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AND THE COLD FRONT TO WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND BUT A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS MAY POSE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO. ..THORNTON/HART.. 07/28/2026 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
  22. Kmlwx
    La Plata UH track maximum....
  23. Kmlwx
    That being said...satellite doesn't look as bad as I thought it would a few hours ago
  24. Kmlwx
    The 0z CSU guidance has a large area of 30% now as well. So that has upticked. Though the usefulness of the AI guidance is probably less on the day of.
  25. Kmlwx
    Lots of cloud cover with it, though. I know @high risk indicated we may not need ABUNDANT sunshine - but I can't help feeling like we've seen this movie a million times.
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