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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    CSU MLP page agrees with an area of 5% TOR
  2. Kmlwx
    I don't expect anything - more just saying under the right conditions it could lay a boundary down or moisten us better.
  3. Kmlwx
    Weenie comment - but I know we've had some events where early showers/precip gave us some REALLY soupy air and if clearing happens it could intensify fuel for later.
  4. Kmlwx
    This likely will reduce/preclude any significant threat later except for areas that see more sun and do not get stabilized early.
  5. Kmlwx
    Pretty robust stuff for the time of day.
  6. Kmlwx
    I wonder if that's a factor of the larger nature of tropical systems and them being more susceptible to the larger scale upper-level pattern(s). With severe, so much is dependent on much smaller scale factors that are below the "resolution" of a broad AI model that might just look at the overall pattern.
  7. Kmlwx
    12z CIPS guidance is a bit more enthusiastic. One analog that has been persistently showing up in some of the domains on CIPS is 6/21/21
  8. Kmlwx
    Ehhh - with severe I'll keep watching until morning of. Always surprises since storms are smaller scale than snowstorms generally.
  9. Kmlwx
    I've also noticed the "FengWu" ones seem to be more bullish than the other one. Maybe it's just not well calibrated or something?
  10. Kmlwx
    CSU MLP is pretty garden variety (15% in a big, broad area). CIPS is pretty unenthused. NCAR is still heavily bullish. I think most of us know this at this point is not going to be an outbreak in our region. But let's see how things evolve with Wednesday convection and timing and such.
  11. Kmlwx
    Also not that it matters a ton (also it's being sunset soon) - the SREF maps over on the SPC page are already showing a mean Derecho Composite of 3 for part of Thursday afternoon/evening.
  12. Kmlwx
    I *will* say that the NCAR AI maps are VERY robust for Thursday - but they do tend to look at lot more serious than CSU and CIPS in general. So take with a grain of salt.
  13. Kmlwx
    Truth! Severe weather around here is a perfect example of what tiny factors can change about an event...no two events are the same even with seemingly nearly identical parameters. Snow gets all the glory of forecast busts - but I really think severe weather busts are MUCH more finicky.
  14. Kmlwx
    Even despite the factors this potential even has going for it - I'm kind of "meh" on it for now. Not necessarily truly meh - but I'm just not feeling it so far. Will see how things look once it gets closer in time. I suspect we won't really have any SOLID clarity until 11am the morning of lol.
  15. Kmlwx
    Garden variety heavy rain in Odenton.
  16. Kmlwx
    The cell NE of CHO might try to get into your area - not sure about me though.
  17. Kmlwx
    Minimum of activity for the DC region so far
  18. Kmlwx
    Well per the TBWI radar, the bay breeze has made it west of me here in Odenton and it continues to push west a bit. So if that will be the dividing line/focal point for severe storms vs more garden variety stuff - then a good chunk of the area will be east of that.
  19. Kmlwx
    It seems no enhanced with the 1630z outlook.
  20. Kmlwx
    As @high risk indicated I am watching dewpoints like a hawk. The HRRR really mixes things out which it is prone to do - but even some models that keep things moist don't produce much today. We'll see - but I still think somebody is in for decent storms.
  21. Kmlwx
    Mesoanalysis showing strong CAPE tongue building into the areas east of Frederick or so.
  22. Kmlwx
    2008 and 2012 both had a "heater" period where things just wanted to pop off more often that year. Obviously it's probably due to persistence and various patterns wanting to repeat for a little while (same as in winter for us sometimes!). 2011 as well - heck....looking back that was a HOT period of years clustered together.
  23. Kmlwx
  24. Kmlwx
    This has the feeling of being one of our "runs" of severe risk. Been a while. When this happens it can last a week or two anecdotally
  25. Kmlwx
    Anne Arundel Co FD has a crap ton of calls
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