Kmlwx

DCA is gusting to 35kts

I've seen flurries at 50 when the warm layer was very shallow. But I'm in Silver Spring and it's just pouring.

Starting to hear the wind roaring up in the top levels of the trees. Nice movement of the trees too. Going to be a lot of tree down calls coming in throughout the evening. Stay safe!

Maybe not. Earlier it seemed more of the conservative guidance had beefed up winds. At a larger scale I doubt it will be prolonged HWW criteria winds...but that semi-convective element/line could bring down a brief period of winds meeting the criteria. The general background will still probably be 45-50mph gusts outside of that period. But with soggy ground, and to increase awareness, probably fine to go with the HWW.

And of course as soon as you get the repairs done the Nino firehose will shut off and we'll go bone dry.

Still probably safest to bet against 60mph winds inland away from the bay...but poking around the various models it does look like many of them now seem to "agree" on a swath of the higher end winds sweeping across the Central Maryland area...probably coinciding with that forced line later this afternoon/evening. Maybe we mix down a brief period of 60+ on a wider scale than expected. Otherwise, probably 40-50 tops still.

The 12z HRRR seems pretty robust on wind. Haven't followed the past few runs but I seem to recall it had much lower gusts than the outlandish models showing widespread 60+ ETA: RRFS is robust now as well.

With wind that strong they'd probably rip apart the updrafts lol

Viewing on mobile is alright - but it's a lot easier when images load directly in the thread.

This. There's a difference between being concerned about 70mph winds and being concerned about wind damage. Classic setup to have a good bit of damage reports even if the wind is relatively tame compared to our biggest gust events. For "ground truth" there's often not a ton of difference from a 45mph wind event with saturated soil versus a 60+mph event in normal soil conditions. Sometimes people forget that just because the criteria isn't met for a HWW that it won't still be high impact. Compare it to a few hundredths of an inch ice accumulation impacting roads same if not more than a 5+ inch snow event.

Problem is that some trees come down if a person farts. PEPCO/BGE/Dominion will find a way to stack outages up I'm sure.

Yes - there's probably going to be widespread 45mph gusts - but it's not going to be the crazy gusts a few models runs have printed out. Unless you're in a favored spot for wind, it will likely be an advisory level event. However, with potentially soggy ground and such - I'd be more trees than usual come down.

It would be awesome to have some remaining snow cover to keep things cooler ahead of the Tuesday storm. Now we root for a colder trend for more of a front end thump!

Let's get together and build a 5000ft tower for snow obs. We can take slant stick measurements from the top for our official obs.

For those of you that want to nailbite even more about elevation - this is the Maryland LiDAR viewer https://geodata.md.gov/topoviewer/ Cool tool if nothing else - REALLY high-res data there. I think @mappy might have been the one to post it a long while ago. For map geeks, can get lost for hours in just scrolling around.

Razor thin line for the fall line - but in this type of setup just have to accept it. Will be a nail biter for the folks riding that line - but suspect this is going to be a "classic" elevation winner storm of the past. I sure as heck won't jackpot in the eastern half of Montgomery County - but I'm okay with where I sit...for now. If it bleeds N/W again I'll be screwed. What a terrible hobby for us to all have

That's a different WFO

I thought the OP went to 90 but the EPS went out farther at the off-hour runs. Maybe I'm wrong!

The mood in here can swing hourly (or even less!). We weather geeks are a really weird bunch. If only more of us could take the @Bob Chillmentality.

Even at fantasy range - a low in that position is not going to be good for most of us

I usually lurk in the long range threads - and what I am about to say is purely "gut feeling-esque" but this upcoming period while it may not be the "peak climo" or "best odds" - has the feeling of a period of time that might define the remainder of winter. In other words, if we can find a way to make snow work with a less than perfect pattern a time or two in the next 2+ weeks, it feels like something bigger might come "easier" (term used loosely). Similar to how Bob and others say some winter it just "wants to snow" If we get skunked through like January 10th, it may still be game on for later in the month and into Feb, but it'll have a whole different feel if we can back into or have a few events sneak in before primetime.

If they came over a short enough period with sustained cold it could be a "cumulative HECS" lol.

The 6z NAM has a short period of like 90kt+ winds in the area at the 850mb level. Doesn't seem any of the other guidance has it this high at all.

Just drove from Odenton over to Colesville. Rain 100% to start the trek and then raindrops on the windshield started to take on a mangled flake consistency. By the time I was on the ICC (MD-200) near New Hampshire Ave it was seemingly mostly/all snow and coming down nicely.