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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    And my excuse of "it's still early in the season" gets less relevant each passing day. By April, we often have much better thermodynamic profiles - though May/June would be even better. Though that admittedly won't solve mid-level lapse rates! I will say - yesterday ahead of the storms did feel juicier than the prior few events this year so far. So we are "getting there" in terms of better dew points and temps. One thing I do like is that we haven't had a shortage of "chances" this year so far. While there has sometimes been a week+ between risks, there's been a pretty steady stream of at least potential systems showing up. Thursday has my interest at least for now.
  2. Kmlwx
    NAM and NAM nest seem better with parameters for Thursday now - but sim reflectivity doesn't really have any initiation at least on the panels I've seen (through 0z Fri).
  3. Kmlwx
    TBWI shows outflow moving out ahead of the storms.
  4. Kmlwx
    One nice thing is that the Warn on Forecast domain includes us. More model runs to wring our hands over!!!
  5. Kmlwx
    Well if nothing else the 12z IAD sounding has 754 surface CAPE already. Seems likely many of us will see rain/thunder at a minimum today. Side note - it's weird seeing the swath of missing soundings.
  6. Kmlwx
    1730z D2 is out. Not many changes.
  7. Kmlwx
    Instability for next Monday improved on the Euro it seems. Timing also seems to look a bit better on the GFS.
  8. Kmlwx
    They are just so unusual and finicky - and they often are super cagey at range. And the best we can *usually* hope for is a modified EML that loses a lot of punch as it gets to use. The "big events" are the ones that really have a robust one. I haven't done a deep dive - but I'm guessing June 2008 had one, we all know June 2012 had one. Minus an EML - tropical action going to our west is always a good bet for tornadoes.
  9. Kmlwx
    Way out there of course - but the 12z GFS pushes the system through too early in the day I think,
  10. Kmlwx
    It could be July/August and we'd find a way to cloud over just in time to squash instability
  11. Kmlwx
    That discussion indicates we will have similar issues to our prior severe "threats" this year so far. Thermodynamics likely to be lacking. Though again - the further we get into spring, the "easier" it gets to not get wedged in...though if you ask Eskimo Joe you can probably still count on getting wedged in even into June lol.
  12. Kmlwx
    It would be so fitting.
  13. Kmlwx
    Sub-severe gusty showers possible on Thursday afternoon/evening.
  14. Kmlwx
    Looks like things will be quiet for the next block of time locally. Still worth watching that March 25th timeframe but seems to have trended away from a severe threat.
  15. Kmlwx
    Radar looks decent for those that are near the storms. Still not much locally in the close metro areas
  16. Kmlwx
    Cell near Baseye may try
  17. Kmlwx
    There's been almost no progress east with the line. We are past peak heating. If we get to 8pm or so and it's still lagging out to the west we are probably just going to get some showers and sub-severe gusts of wind. Another case where synoptic wind may end up being the bigger story.
  18. Kmlwx
    SPC is not enthused. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0235.html
  19. Kmlwx
    The HRRR seems to struggle to get the storms to move east (as @wxmeddler just indicated he sees as well) - The 18z NAM nest rolling out now seems a little more compelled to roll the storms east.
  20. Kmlwx
    Yeah that one looks solid right now!
  21. Kmlwx
    Nice to see you chiming in! I wonder if we actually will get some decent instability with the sunshine arriving for many of us. But my main limiting factor at that point would be if the storms arrive too late once the sun has already set. HRRR seems to suggest it could be 0-3z before some of us see that line.
  22. Kmlwx
    The HRRR still brings some UH tracks near the DC metro area after 0z. We'll see...
  23. Kmlwx
    Nah this time I'm legitimately being a deb. We likely are stuck at the Yoda-tier for the system.
  24. Kmlwx
    I could also see a scenario where the stuff coming up through VA into the DC area now precludes any instability from really taking hold and stabilizing us before any later line. That seems pretty likely...
  25. Kmlwx
    Gotta love my interesting weather reverse psychology.
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