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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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Nice outflow/gust front winds but pretty mundane with the precipitation itself. Still will be nice to drop the temperatures tonight...still will be soupy but it was brutal out today.
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I'm surprised it wasn't a touch higher, honestly.
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I can't imagine their page is hosted onsite - but I may be wrong. Probably just coincidental.
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Actually even see a 75-76mph pixel on the LWX base reflectivity tilt.
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DCA is going to get rocked in a sec. Wind core almost heading right for the airport/Arlington. I see 70+mph pixels on LWX
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Any reason that it seems to be more prominent this season than prior ones? Or is that just recency bias?
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Our vantage point looks super similar - I could probably yell our "SNOWFAN" and you might hear it.
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It seems like LWX will warn a huge swath and then if an area of considerable or destructive nature shows itself they will put a warning inside of the warning. I can see it from both sides...I think they do it because of the metro corridor honestly.
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It's interesting because anecdotally we have seen them bring through robust lines only for relative minimums to occur in swaths of our area. But yeah - this has been an interesting season of modeling.
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The shape of the velocity signature sort of makes me think there's a slight chance of a little kink or enhanced area that may be prone to spin briefly. But certainly not a strong tornado risk or anything - maybe more like a gustnado if that keeps up.
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Next segment of the area warned now. can see the profile of the storms looking west from Odenton, MD right now. Looks cool!
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The LWX specialty warning size lol
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The timing may be after daytime heating is subsiding - it's possible that instability could become more elevated versus surface based is my assumption.
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The HRRR which had looked impressive for tomorrow afternoon no longer does with the 12z run - unless you are south of DC.
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Heck…even June 29, 2012 was one LOL
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Some of my most memorable severe days started out as SEE TEXT lol. Bring it.
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I was actually just thinking that this is likely more a factor of the new categorical risk areas/percentages than anything. Especially now that they can go even higher on percentages on wind...30% at day 3 is nothing to sneeze at - but I think it will become a lot more common with these new outlooks. Also no CIG hatching at all.
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Not fully shocked but that’s pretty robust from SPC at range
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Quite a bit of initiation happening on the higher terrain to the west.
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Someone (or a few people) in the next few days - will get microbursted I think. But probably not a region-wide event.
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HRRR actually has something coming through Central Maryland this afternoon.
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@Ian was always overrated - meh. All kidding - missed you, dude!
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Friday is getting more robust on the CSU MLP page as well - area of 30% showing up.
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