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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    LWX going with the mega warnings
  2. Kmlwx
    Mesoanalysis hail parameters have been increasing the past few hours as well. Matches up with the hail portions of the warnings ramping up.
  3. Kmlwx
    Saving the most meh for last!
  4. Kmlwx
    ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1780 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...MARYLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 281608Z - 281815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WHICH IS LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS, A FEW AREAS OF MORE BROKEN CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR FILTERED HEATING , WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-45 KTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AND THE COLD FRONT TO WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND BUT A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS MAY POSE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO. ..THORNTON/HART.. 07/28/2026 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
  5. Kmlwx
    La Plata UH track maximum....
  6. Kmlwx
    That being said...satellite doesn't look as bad as I thought it would a few hours ago
  7. Kmlwx
    The 0z CSU guidance has a large area of 30% now as well. So that has upticked. Though the usefulness of the AI guidance is probably less on the day of.
  8. Kmlwx
    Lots of cloud cover with it, though. I know @high risk indicated we may not need ABUNDANT sunshine - but I can't help feeling like we've seen this movie a million times.
  9. Kmlwx
    That radar looks like a nuke went off....holy crap
  10. Kmlwx
    I still would generally favor south of DC for tomorrow. But the NAM nest and HRRR do get activity (some seemingly severe?) into all areas tomorrow. After shrinking the 15% contour to the south of us yesterday, CSU guidance has it back north of the M/D line. So that's good. We'll see (as always!)
  11. Kmlwx
    CSU MLP guidance favors south of the area for Tuesday. CIPS is not enthused really. NCAR which normally is overly bullish is not terrible but given its normal...is under enthused as well.
  12. Kmlwx
    Dueling models
  13. Kmlwx
    Take notes people. EJ is interested
  14. Kmlwx
    Seems the GFS has a remnant EML in the vicinity for next week.
  15. Kmlwx
    Just heard thunder from that!
  16. Kmlwx
    Though - look at the storm track at least at the moment. Even that one may be on track to go well south. Closer for you regardless. Maybe some of the more local stuff can grow upscale. There's still a chance!
  17. Kmlwx
    IF (big if) that were to hold intensity...the track could be in your area - but I feel like it will have a tendency to go more south.
  18. Kmlwx
    Echo tops almost 53,000ft on that stuff.
  19. Kmlwx
    Isn't part of that because the storm is largely perpendicular movement in regards to the LWX radar? Where in the case of BWI/DCA they have a bit more of a rear/front view of the velocities?
  20. Kmlwx
    I'm getting sunshine in Colesville despite radar returns being over me lol
  21. Kmlwx
    @yoda
  22. Kmlwx
    The other thing to consider is that cell @yoda mentioned is in an area and continuing ito areas that the blob of precip has been impacting...so if it holds/intensifies it could be a good indicator for downstream. My only concern is that by the time that stuff shifts closer, we will be well beyond peak heating. We will have to rely on better forcing to continue the threat. Though....it does remain QUITE soupy out there.
  23. Kmlwx
    I mean - my rational side says that all the junk around is going to lessen our threat substantially - but the Morgantown cell plus that one entering WV from OH does have me intrigued as those are heading in our general direction.
  24. Kmlwx
    Good lord yes it is. Certainly for this part of the country. "large and extremely dangerous tornado" text on it.
  25. Kmlwx
    Honestly at this point if that precip blog survives the mountains maybe we can just get a few hours of soaking rain...
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