Jump to content

Kmlwx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    13,441

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Going to wait until 12z models before I do my little write-up for my office. While a ton of people at work (including in management) read my emails - they seldom apply my messaging to their actual decision making - which I don't blame them since I'm a weather weenie. But so far it has burned them a few times (during snow events) when they've closed too late (once people were already at the office) or haven't closed early enough in the afternoon leading to people having 3-5 hour commutes. I've *never* seen them release early for something other than snow...And I'm physically onsite tomorrow until 5:30pm. Great....with no windows too!
  2. Kmlwx
    I do think linear convective systems in our region tend to roll through a bit earlier than even short range models predict. There are exceptions, of course - but with a solid line - it wouldn't shock me to see it bump 1-3 hours earlier as we close.
  3. Kmlwx
    If you do, please be careful. Fast storm motions will make this potentially chaotic.
  4. Kmlwx
    Continuing discussion and eventually observations/nowcast posts for the Monday severe weather event potential can go here. @WxUSAF or other mods please pin this thread if you get the chance. 15% TOR and 60% WIND are extremely rare in these parts. While I am not downplaying anything - I do think the appearance of 60% wind has a lot to do with the new SPC outlook methodology. Nonetheless, an active weather day tomorrow seems on tap. Usual failure modes still exist (stabilizing cloud cover or early day showers) The shear environment is pretty insane.
  5. Kmlwx
    I'll get a separate thread started in a bit!
  6. Kmlwx
    Unrelated - but has anyone else been having serious issues loading the SPC Events Archive pages? Eventually they load - but stuff is missing - and sometimes it just throws an error on the left navigation area entirely.
  7. Kmlwx
    We do seem to go on "runs" at times. 2008 and 2012 come to mind. Also I still can't believe that College Park in 2001 and La Plata in 2002 were less than 8 months apart.
  8. Kmlwx
    @mappy - Do you still have you mod powers? If I bump this event to a standalone thread after the afternoon day 2 outlook tomorrow can you pin it? Or I guess @WxUSAF is a mod too right?
  9. Kmlwx
    Let's wait and see how things look tomorrow. Again - we have traditionally (at least since the past few years) kept things mostly contained within this thread. If there is no reduction in the threat level tomorrow afternoon or evening - perhaps we can do a shorter term obs thread/damage report thread. While the potential for a high end event is definitely there - you'd be crazy to assume we are guaranteed a high end event. There are too many failure methods with Mid-Atlantic severe. Would be silly to have a thread that ends up being for a 50-60mph line of gusty storms. We've seen many events look robust at day 2 to fizzle the day of - heck even some day 1 big dog potentials have fizzled.
  10. Kmlwx
    We will see new tiers of percentages. Remember they now have even higher percentages for wind to account for those days when it's widespread and almost certain - but the max intensity is like 58-65mph. I think 60% wind outlooks will become a lot more common with this new outlook strategy.
  11. Kmlwx
    Downgrade to marginal lol
  12. Kmlwx
    You mean in the discussion or did you hear something more specific? I didn't read it that way - it sounded more like they will continue to watch guidance and see what instability looks like.
  13. Kmlwx
    Discussion leads with mentioning potential future upgrade to MOD risk for SC to MD
  14. Kmlwx
    That is a good write up - and VERY bullish...wow
  15. Kmlwx
    We haven't done that in several years I believe. I think it can stay here for the time being. Or we can just stay here in general. It's up to the mods. We tend to treat severe thunderstorm events differently than winter weather. Also it tends to be much easier to keep track of things and these severe threads don't get out of hand like the winter weather ones do. Main reason for separating winter threads is because of how much junk clogs them up within minutes.
  16. Kmlwx
    Not a fan of Cappucci in general but yeah seems many of the folks on social media are buzzing about this. I remain reserved but it definitely has some bite potential.
  17. Kmlwx
    Logan Giles over on X is honking hard for this event.
  18. Kmlwx
    CIPS has been more anemic than the CSU-MLP page. We'll see how both pages evolve over the next few days.
  19. Kmlwx
    04/19/2013 has been showing up high in the analogs on CIPS for a while now.
  20. Kmlwx
    Yes but if we go by @Eskimo Joe's superstition - these tend to fail. Our best days often are when SPC plays catch up - I think anecdotally this is sometimes true but it's more probably just mental in that when it's hyped up and it's only a middle of the road event, it sticks in our minds.
  21. Kmlwx
    As LWX indicated - the thermodynamic environment will be the big question. It seems like the models are in fairly good agreement that the shear environment is going to be pretty insane. Seeing soundings with like 65+ knots of 0-6km shear. Helicity values even for the 0-1km layer are absurd too. But some of these same soundings have CAPE values fairly low. I agree that linear is more likely with maybe embedded circulations. But my question is whether this ends up being one of those pencil thin lines with limited lightning if instability is meager. We'll see - but with those shear numbers I think updrafts could get obliterated as well - we've seen that in similar events before...
  22. Kmlwx
    CSU-MLP for Monday has wide area of 30% and a max shown of 42.6 right near DC...with hatching showing up in Southern Maryland, SEVA and NE NC. For March - that is extremely impressive....
  23. Kmlwx
    Honestly the orientation if nothing else of the precip on the models reminds me of some dynamic spring systems. Definitely eyebrow raising to get a Day 5 15%. I'm still not convinced it will be anything substantial, though. We'll see how it looks in NAM range.
  24. Kmlwx
    CSU-MLP really lit up for big chunk of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for Monday. Not major - but 15%
  25. Kmlwx
    You're too kind - I'm just the moron who starts the thread ever year. I'll give all the accolades to the pros!
×
×
  • Create New...