Kmlwx
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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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Rotation near Hedgesville is trying hard.
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That cell in Fairfax looks suspicious again.
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We are going to miss that stuff along I-81 unless it starts extending south. Looks like the discrete stuff out ahead is the bigger tornado risk - QLCS style stuff maybe in the line later.
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My camera looking north from the apartment back in Columbia got something - looks like a lowering.
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Is that rotation near Clarksville. Whoa.
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The conditional prod of sigtor probabilities are really on the rise locally.
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Tagged with the TOR possible too.
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They were also in a radar "dead zone" of sorts. Stuff does tend to look better as it rolls off the mountains.
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It's always something - watch flooding become the primary threat.
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The wind? Or severe weather? Synoptic wind definitely busted here. Severe is more uncertain.
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750 SBCAPE isn't bad for having no sun so far. The clearing should help boost that at-or-above 1000. Things are looking a bit better compared to earlier. It definitely feels muggy out there.
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I'd imagine it will be a relatively low probability watch.
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More showery junk in VA and running up into SCentral PA to keep our temps from warming. Blech
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Chance for something isolated perhaps. But we'll need some support and it's not likely to be as widespread as earlier thought possible.
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HRRR did kind of hint at that on a few runs with stuff getting going in like northern and northeast Maryland. Though - I can't imagine PHL and SEPA will get much more than us if the clouds don't start booking it out of here.
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Normally a south wind would be helpful - but there's no warm air south of us to advect in. Dews look okay at least...
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The RAP has dialed back instability figures for today.
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Typical Mid-Atlantic severe day.
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It's breezy here at times - but certainly nothing to write home about for now.
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What would be really nice is if the back edge of these clouds we are under now started to erode while concurrently moving out. Not seeing that so far.
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There's also not a whole lot of a gap between the current clouds on satellite and the clouds forming behind. Needs to hurry up and get here.
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The forecaster for the new D1 was Thompson and Kerr - are they known to be bearish?
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Did the 12z IAD sounding get abducted by aliens?
