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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    A lot of the severe parameters seem to have a cutoff of the Potomac (roughly) on a lot of the runs.
  2. Kmlwx
    Yoda - LWX does have grounds to issue the *watch* but the amounts certainly have been cut on some of the recent guidance. Also the strip of maximum is going to be REALLY narrow as shown on a lot of guidance. Some places might get 0.25-0.5 and a few isolated spots in the jackpot corridors may get 3. But this is not going to be a widespread 2-4 inch flood event. The watch is probably because flooding WILL occur but it's not going to be prolific area-wide flooding like EJ wants So the watch is warranted - but it's not likely to be a major river flooding event or anything of that nature.
  3. Kmlwx
    Clarifying my above post - I still think there's a severe risk - but best will be south of the Potomac and especially closer to SEVA and such.
  4. Kmlwx
    The severe risk is non-zero but I'd put local odds of it being better than Sunday evening pretty low. This looks like a bigger event in the Carolinas.
  5. Kmlwx
    Old GFS on the 12z run is less aggressive with warm temps than the NAM - consequently has much more meager looking instability and thus a much lower severe risk implied.
  6. Kmlwx
    Ditto for the 3km NAM as well.
  7. Kmlwx
    12z NAM looks better for severe prospects. Temperatures nearing 80 in spots and good dews.
  8. Kmlwx
    @wxmeddler found the meteor on GOES-16! Off the coast in reality
  9. Kmlwx
    Meteor(ite) sighting area wide around 10:57pm. Was caught on at least one dash cam. Unconfirmed report of brush fire (now looks like that report was unfounded)
  10. Kmlwx
    I don't necessarily favor either one at this point. In my anecdotal experience - GFS does tend to downplay severe parameters around here at range. NAM maybe goes a bit too gung-ho as the event closes in but then comes back to reality as it hits.
  11. Kmlwx
    Going to be kind of funny if this past Sun night ends up being the better of the two and it was in the middle of the night. This one is during the afternoon/evening and might be the dud. Weather is fun(ny).
  12. Kmlwx
    The 18z NAM at range gets DC to like 78 degrees on Friday. That's quite a bit different than the GFS twins.
  13. Kmlwx
    Flooding (even minor) is "interesting" around here (or anywhere) because there's always the idiots who decide they can make it through feet of water. If 1-3 inches verifies I'm sure there will be water rescue calls...probably some idiots with kids in the car too. "I have four wheel drive so I can make it through this washed out road" "This appointment I'm driving to is very important...therefore the flooding won't stop me"
  14. Kmlwx
    Yoda - right now I'm more sold on the flooding threat. Models are in great agreement of 1-2 inches of rain - and the Euro drops even more than that in a strip running (thin) from Stafford up towards mappy-ville. 2-3 inches of rain is going to cause some problems if that verifies. GFS bullseyes Westminster area with over 3 inches. That being said - even sub-severe winds could then do some damage given the saturated ground.
  15. Kmlwx
    They also say "dewpoints well into the 60s" - which the GFS twins certainly do not show. Low 60s at best for most of us - and even lower for some of us. Well into the 60s would definitely aid in the instability department. Better heating would also help - but cloud cover looks ample. Of course if the front is strong enough that can also help us to offset meager instability. If the GFS starts helping us out with the dews and temps a bit more I'll be more likely to bite. We still have plenty of time.
  16. Kmlwx
    Temps up a touch on the 12Z GFS but dews dropped a bit. Instability still looks like the limiting factor. GFS has overcast skies pretty much all day Friday which is probably a big reason why this is the case. FV3 looks pretty similar at this point.
  17. Kmlwx
    Took a look at the GFS - it gets dews into the low to mid 60s into the area. It looks like maybe temps are keeping a lid on the instability, though. It has a good chunk of the area getting into the upper 60s to right around 70 but not higher. Would think that to juice the instability up more we'll need mid 70s or higher. System looks very dynamic and 850mb winds are easily 55-60kts or higher. Don't think shear will be the limiting factor here. If we can juice CAPE up a bit more I don't think we'll have any trouble having some severe. Not biting on a decent event yet - and definitely not biting as hard as DT seems to be. In our area - we will always find a way to fail at severe. GFS tends to never look that good at longer ranges, though. It's just now coming into NAM range and long range NAM = lol. At 500mb this looks more impressive than the last system. CIPS is not that enthused either at this point - there are one or two decent analogs but a whole lot of nothing showing up as well.
  18. Kmlwx
    15% (we are at the northern extreme still) remains on the new Day 4 outlook from SPC. Looks like a dynamic system - though GFS/FV3 instability isn't all that high which seems like it might be a main limiting factor. Then again, the GFS/FV3 were low on that stuff as well for the past event - once it got into NAM range things looked juicier. We'll see how this one plays out.
  19. Kmlwx
    So are we now looking a bit earlier than the earlier thoughts of like 2-4am?
  20. Kmlwx
    Winds suck for flights (especially crosswinds) but most non-severe winds won't cause ground stops etc
  21. Kmlwx
    Is it delayed due to the inbound flight though? That's different than being delayed due to weather on your leg of the flight. A takeoff at 7pm could still easily get you into the area.
  22. Kmlwx
    Probably not lol - at least not for us
  23. Kmlwx
    Enhanced is not that uncommon - it used to be included in the slight category. But semantics.
  24. Kmlwx
    Enhanced! First of the year.
  25. Kmlwx
    That is a heck of a write up - One of the best I've seen from LWX regarding severe weather in recent memory.
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