Kmlwx

The NAM twins have been improving the last few runs. The long range 18z HRRR looked good for DC and east as well.

NAM has 85 knot winds at 850mb over the bay on Monday. Dynamic storm system!

It's essentially December - so we shouldn't expect much of anything. But we'll all keep an eye on it I'm sure

Record is 74 for today at DCA.

Yeah - SPC does have a mention of that window in the D4-8 outlook. One exception may be near the end of the period (days 7-8/23rd-24th) in the upper Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, if a more intensely amplified northern-stream cyclone, as forecast by operational ECMWF (but not deterministic GFS/CMC nor several EC ensemble members), verifies over the southern ON/lower Great Lakes region. Such a scenario would strengthen frontal forcing under intense flow aloft for potential low-topped convective band(s). However, at such a long time range, predictability is very low for such a solution.

Hefty rain and some good gusts with this activity in the Severn/Hanover area right now.

Big polygons showing up - typical with this kind of a setup to warn essentially the entire line - regardless of radar velocity it seems. Line looking nice - especially the area near the Mason-Dixon line. It's too bad we don't go right from severe season into blizzards. Imagine having something to track almost every week all year. Dec-Mar = Winter storms Apr-Aug = Severe thunderstorms/wedges Sept-Oct = Less severe but still some and tropical Nov-Dec = Synoptic wind rippage

I think they have to then declare the growing season as over. It's possible they had a warning but NWS determined it didn't hit it.

SPC has been throwing out mention of the *chance* of severe potential towards next weekend in the D4-8 outlooks the last day or two. Too far out.

Can you imagine this vort pass in prime winter? This is for the Tue/Wed event.

I'm having a hard time remembering what the cloud cover/precip situation was just ahead of the Sept 2012 event. Based on the SPC events page, it looks like that might have been an event that started earlier in the day. We had mesoscale discussions by mid morning it seems. It seems the guidance wants to track the low nearby or even to the southeast. The low being SE of us is going to probably nix any severe potential. We'll need to see if that trends back north and west a bit.

CIPS has backed way off - par for the course.

CIPS is still highlighting this analog - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120918

0z GFS vs 0z Euro at hr144 lol

Euro is like comically slower than last run.

GFS is slower again and appears to be more amped again.

Last 8 runs of GFS.

Man...the 12z Euro looked robust at H5

CMC and ICON also look to have stepped a bit in that direction too. Lots to change but this is one to watch.

12z GFS looks deeper with the trough. Could be trending towards the Euro. Big implications if that's the case. I was surprised CIPS was so hefty given the big difference in the modeling.

Knowing our luck it will slow but only to Wed AM and ruin the entire event due to bad timing.

Sept 18 2012 is showing up in CIPS. That was a day 2 hatched to day 1 moderate day for us. 10 percent tor and 45 percent wind. Lots of reports too. The SE sector does show 2001 at the number 2 analog spot. I'm officially interested. And CIPS is based on the GFS not even the Euro.......

Also of note, CIPS is really lit up for the 120hr mark on the 00z suite. Bullseye maybe a touch NE of some of us, but right in our backyards.

Don't have a lot of time right now, but the 00z Euro H5 maps have a ln overall resemblance to the reanalysis maps from Sept 24 2001. Mainly in that they both have a deep trough axis cutting through the TN area and ridging out west.

Oh snap. I thought we might be done for the year