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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    That would seem to indicate pulse storms mostly/multicell unless you get a nice cold pool to propagate a line.
  2. Kmlwx
    Like I said before - all my eggs are in today since I won't be around tomorrow So I'm hoping for a regionwide event. I'll be looking at GOES a lot today.
  3. Kmlwx
    Yeah - wedge is holding very well. 60s temps all the way well into VA. We need warmth stat. HRRR runs warm us into the mid to upper 70s.
  4. Kmlwx
    yeah the HRRR would be area-wide raking this evening. Wonder if it has to do with capping on the NAM not being broken. Pretty stark difference. HRRR has been quite consistent...so one of them will bust pretty large.
  5. Kmlwx
    Of note - the HRRRx is pretty much a snoozer except for a few cells.
  6. Kmlwx
    Yeah it's night and day with the HRRR. And the differences on sim radar show up by like 4-6 hours out. Wow.
  7. Kmlwx
    I hope today performs well IMBY. Flying out at 7am tomorrow so whatever happens tomorrow I will miss out on. Also hoping the engine doesn't fall off my plane.
  8. Kmlwx
    Almost looks D-word-ish. But then again...it's the HRRR
  9. Kmlwx
  10. Kmlwx
    Garden variety thunderstorms here. Nice though!
  11. Kmlwx
    Cell in HoCo (along the MoCo line) must be trying - I have a small hail indicator on it.
  12. Kmlwx
    Severe possible along and NE of a line from Westminster to Towson. Garden variety to the south of that line seems like a good call right now at least. Seeimg some little popcorn showers locally around DC now.
  13. Kmlwx
    I'm turning into you. Meh.
  14. Kmlwx
    Some tiny cells going up in Southern Carroll and extreme northern HoCo. From looking at them on GR2Analyst - they look capped....struggling to get very high
  15. Kmlwx
    That said - mesoanalysis is bonkers in a tiny area just ENE of DC. Has very high supercell parameter values there as well as high EHI.
  16. Kmlwx
    Radar trends still significantly favor that tornado watch zone. Looks like the best line will (as expected) go into NE Maryland. Let's see if outflow can trigger anything closer to the DC region.
  17. Kmlwx
    Nice and toasty out there. Radar clear for now. MCD to our west.
  18. Kmlwx
    Still doesn't look particularly noteworthy for DC proper. Good parameters but not a lot ot show until you're north. Maybe it'll adjust south a bit. Or maybe capping is overplayed
  19. Kmlwx
    Most of the hires models like the ARW/NMM etc keep most stuff north of Mason Dixon. They're out at range for now though.
  20. Kmlwx
    We shall see. I'll wait for more data coming in to make an in/out call. Subject to numerous changes
  21. Kmlwx
    I'm not in the enhanced. Sooo I'm out
  22. Kmlwx
    Might even be a low risk day in some parts of the area!
  23. Kmlwx
    Would be an amazing send off before I head down south for vacation. I would be amazed if I got a solid severe day Monday here and then tropical action during the 2nd half of the trip
  24. Kmlwx
    GFS continues to spit out some decent parameters over the weekend and on Monday though lol
  25. Kmlwx
    I'm mostly unimpressed. A lot of the modeling seems to be best south of town and then east.
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