Kmlwx

Does Horst have plans to get that updated to a cleaner interface?

Sweet! Thanks! Not sure how I had no idea about this.

I miss the locally run LWX models for the weenie factor. We had like 3 extra models to look at for severe.

The trend definitely seems to have been to bump CAPE values up a bit. I'm seeing numbers of 500 to almost 1000 in some soundings. I might be in - depending on model runs today.

Lol...from the 12z HRRR.

In practice - I feel like these lines tend to speed up even if just by a bit with time.

Whoa...who are you?

3k NAM gets MLCAPE to 500+ into the area. Not bad.

I think there was also a day (was it that one?) that had tornado watches for all or part of the area for like 24 straight hours or something. And I think a day in June 2013 that had a long track EF-0 tornado in MoCo.

For as much crap as we all love to talk about DC failing at severe - we've had some pretty memorable days to track around the area - even if everyone didn't get hit. 9/24/2001, 4/28/2002, 6/4/2008, 6/29/2012 have all been truly special severe days around the DC area. There are some others as well.

I think even with it coming in during peak heating it'll probably have very limited instability to work with. Ultimately it'll probably turn out very similar to the other day...tough for us to get anything of significance this late. November 16, 2006 had a 10% hatched tornado locally. It was exciting but not a whole lot happened. I remember rushing home from school. I think there was some isolated flooding. The reports from that day are very anemic on the SPC archive. ETA link for reference: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20061116

The timing looks pretty poor for now. 3km NAM and GFS seem to bring any sort of line in here at bad times in the diurnal cycle. I know this time of year the cycle matters a little less than it would in summer. But that doesn't bode well for having a peak of instability. Would like to see it either speed up to arrive Thursday afternoon - or slow down and nudge into the day on Friday. Shear looks excellent as you said. Assume we'll just get a pencil thin squall with no thunder/lightning with some gusty winds. Sub-severe would be my guess.

We'll see how it looks when we get to the midweek timeframe. GFS has the timing pretty bad right now.

It's about as good as we can get for this time of year short of a massively dynamic storm. I can recall a decent severe day in mid-November back when I was in high school. Maybe 2006?

It had been in the "severe" category. 2 inches still leaves a deficit. That map is typically a slow adjustment too since hydrology can be a trickle down effect at times. If we don't revert to a super dry pattern, you'll see that improve more next week.

Dreary morning - decent little shower activity in the area of Potomac, Rockville.

@Wow - Thanks for the update! Site seems to be running A TON better.

Clearly it's proof of aliens. Contact your local FBI office.

Started clearing out when the outflow started pushing through. Maybe you're right - either that or just airmass related due to the front. Weird look for sure.

LWX radar is really messy - guessing it's in clean air mode or something.

Interestingly enough - mobile is fine for me if I'm using the Chrome browser. But Chrome on the desktop is awful. I wonder if other boards using Invision are impacted.

Still very, very bad performance on Google Chrome. Seems mostly okay (a bit slow at times) on Firefox. Chrome is so bad with the forum that videos playing in other tabs stutter while the forum is open. Mouse movement also becomes choppy.

Not according to the 12z GFS in fantasy land We'll see every solution in the coming week.

Awesome thanks! I will mention that performance for me in Firefox has improved pretty significantly. Chrome seems as bad (if not worse) as before. Have tried on multiple devices including one with the latest graphics card updates and latest Windows patches.

Holy crap - my windows are open in my apartment and I didn't hear a thing.