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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Seems likely we'll get there. Sunshine still seems to be ample.
  2. Kmlwx
    Good news is sunshine appears to be plentiful.
  3. Kmlwx
    Latest NAM nest rolling in doesn't look half bad on the satellite view.
  4. Kmlwx
    The HRDPS goes pretty bonkers for this afternoon/evening
  5. Kmlwx
    Pattern does seem to look good for multiple days of storms at least within the general area as a whole (not speaking specifically about severe). I don't see any elevated odds for anything like a derecho or big outbreak. CIPS does seem supportive of a severe threat for the next 4-5 days or so, though. Give me a nice cluster of storms forming a cold pool.
  6. Kmlwx
    June can still be friendly to us - if we can get some decent cells to fire today it could be okay for some area. But yeah - region-wide event today looks unlikely.
  7. Kmlwx
    Day of Destruction
  8. Kmlwx
    Wow look at NAM nest for tomorrow PM
  9. Kmlwx
    Are you bullish on this threat window?
  10. Kmlwx
    CIPS was down from around late afternoon yesterday until this morning. Looks like the 0z run did not come out properly. We'll have to wait for the 12z run for any new information from that side of things. The severe weather CIPS page (which only runs at 0z) won't refresh until tomorrow morning it seems.
  11. Kmlwx
    Nice to see GEFS being so robust on that.
  12. Kmlwx
  13. Kmlwx
    120hr mark is honking hard on CIPS.
  14. Kmlwx
    Long range 12z HRRR has a bow echo type thing come through the area tomorrow afternoon.
  15. Kmlwx
    CIPS appears to be suggestive that things may be flipping back to active for us WRT severe. 120hr has some severe risk and then the extended analogs also show some spikes.
  16. Kmlwx
    Crank the LLJ and give me a high wind event. I love synoptic wind events. Severe would be icing.
  17. Kmlwx
    Mall wedge or bust.
  18. Kmlwx
    NAM nest bullseyes DC Thur PM.
  19. Kmlwx
    I'm out until I'm in.
  20. Kmlwx
    Why are you doing this to us - now I'm going to dream of severe.
  21. Kmlwx
    @yoda - Remember though that shear can't be too strong is instability isn't that great as the updrafts could get ripped apart. Plus...NAM at range disclaimer as usual.
  22. Kmlwx
    You got me REALLY excited and then I got totally deflated as I kept reading
  23. Kmlwx
    Deb
  24. Kmlwx
    Here's the one for exceeding ONE severe report within 110km
  25. Kmlwx
    % of top 15 analogs with severe reports exceeding 10 severe reports within 110km of a point. This is from the 0z CIPS suite. Hour 120
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