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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    I'll cross my fingers and hope for persistence - good storms lately so hopefully our luck continues.
  2. Kmlwx
    Looks like NAM nest keeps our area pretty much in the clear despite parameters being nice. NEPA looks ominous, though.
  3. Kmlwx
  4. Kmlwx
    One more
  5. Kmlwx
  6. Kmlwx
  7. Kmlwx
    Radarscope has a TVS on the most intense part of the line
  8. Kmlwx
    Yeah it looks like the evening stuff is getting going. Let's see how it does with lowering instability/loss of daytime heating.
  9. Kmlwx
    Starting to think we'll have to wait for the stuff that the HRRR is insistent will come through around 1-2z
  10. Kmlwx
    Just fired up a spare smartphone running a hyperlapse video capture looking north (and a bit west) of Columbia. Hoping to catch any CU growth and subsequent storm formation.
  11. Kmlwx
    Latest HRRR (12z) run in progress has some pop up storms for the I-95 corridor around 19-20z and then a big line coming through later.
  12. Kmlwx
    LWX is very bullish it seems for Tuesday. SPC is less enthused. But that's not a concern...I just went back for nostalgia and was re-reading outlooks leading up to the June 2012 derecho and we weren't even in a risk from long leads.
  13. Kmlwx
    SLGT risk for tomorrow now - SPC indicates supercell development possible.
  14. Kmlwx
    Of note - the 12z CIPS analogs have a big signature for severe potential at the hour 132 mark
  15. Kmlwx
    STALKER I honestly wouldn't have recognized my building from a panoramic photo with that lighting. I would have killed to watch the storm from my building...work sucks
  16. Kmlwx
    I don't know what's gotten into me
  17. Kmlwx
    I have no opinion yet. But it's been there a bit off and on - on the guidance. Wouldn't expect anything like today at this range.
  18. Kmlwx
    Don't get me wrong - June and July can still be fierce...but the fail potential is a lot higher. We tend to do pulse severe (isolated) in later June and July. The time of year we are in right now is great for severe if we can get the stars to align. We still benefit I guess from shorter wavelengths and somewhat more potent low pressure systems. Absolutely NO scientific backing here - but after today I feel pretty good about some good chances at severe as we head towards summer. Now if only we can track some Mid-Atlantic tropical trouble in fall. Add a decent December snow and we'll have had it all
  19. Kmlwx
    100% agree. There were definitely similarities. That one was (as you said) way more intense/widespread but this one definitely had shades of that. That one (rightfully) was a moderate risk in our area.
  20. Kmlwx
    The one thing about earlier season events is they can have a lot more shear to work with.
  21. Kmlwx
    Yeah - I mean beyond the two wind cores (Columbia and Downtown DC) this wasn't a widespread derecho-style damaging wind event. Nonetheless, it definitely wasn't as meager as it could have been. Really decent event considering the bust potential. SPC was a bit too north with their enhanced perhaps. Great work by them though maintaining the 30% wind when they could have dialed it back to 15%. This event was a "win" - glad there were no injuries in the Columbia house.
  22. Kmlwx
    Heard on the news the storm survey team will be out there.
  23. Kmlwx
    Almost looks like serial bow echos (not using the D-word as it doesn't meet the criteria) - but with the Columbia bow and now the DC one. Cool radar signature.
  24. Kmlwx
    This is going to stabilize us pretty good. HRRR says nothing after. Which is fine by me - this was a GREAT event for our area.
  25. Kmlwx
    It BLEW up once it hit the instability tongue. Good shear, halfway decent lapse rates - What a day. This is going to go down as one of the better events in recent memory. Lots of damage reports into EOC?
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