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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Those models seem to indicate some nice supercell potential too. I know it sucks but UD helicity maps look nice. I can see the Columbia Tornado Redux on the NAM nest for tomorrow
  2. Kmlwx
    Yeah things seem to be improving. I think we get a slight for tomorrow too based on the latest data.
  3. Kmlwx
    For laughs - there is a pocket of 30+ supercell composite parameter tomorrow over Central MD. SE surface wind on the sounding I pulled and a NICE looking hodograph. I'm sure it's contaminated.
  4. Kmlwx
    Very soupy out already. Most areas locally are well into the 80s and dewpoints are juicy.
  5. Kmlwx
    MLCAPE (as usual) is much lower but climbing.
  6. Kmlwx
    Straight out of the weenie handbook. I like it
  7. Kmlwx
    Frustrating to keep having stuff be north of us.
  8. Kmlwx
    Newest HRRR run is a little better - but primary focus still appears to be PA. Will be watching nowcast trends this morning.
  9. Kmlwx
    NAM nest and HRRR pretty much give all the big time stuff to PA...again. Gives us some minor scraps. We do get some better storms tomorrow - always the next day... Hopefully we can work on those trends in subsequent runs...
  10. Kmlwx
    I like to build suspense and wait until the run is done. lol
  11. Kmlwx
    How long until Yoda asks if a moderate is possible tomorrow (or me)
  12. Kmlwx
    Storms following similar paths too. Quite the radar image on the KCCX radar.
  13. Kmlwx
    Imagine if our radar tomorrow looks anything close to how PIT looks right now.
  14. Kmlwx
    Cell near Slate Lick, PA is looking FIERCE right now
  15. Kmlwx
    @MN Transplant is also a frequent poster.
  16. Kmlwx
    The cells north of PIT are going to town already. Quick hail markers on them. Should be a fun day in most of PA
  17. Kmlwx
    Yeah - looks like we lull after these next few days. CIPS is much quieter going forward - not much signature for severe to be seen.
  18. Kmlwx
    Also worth nothing the HRRR continues to have essentially NOTHING south of the M/D line for today. (17z run). I'm completely out for today unless you're in mappyville - and even then probably out.
  19. Kmlwx
    12z HRRR run (long range) for tomorrow. Tasty. Meanwhile - the NAM nest seems to have two rounds tomorrow. Looks like it blows up some cells for I-95 and east and then brings a line or cells in from the west later on.
  20. Kmlwx
    GFS might be running too humid at spots. I saw a small blob up near FDK for tomorrow where the GFS was progging like 6K SBCAPE. I looked at the sounding and it has a 76 dewpoint in the area. Doubt it would be that high.
  21. Kmlwx
    I'm telling you - I think I'm getting more pessimistic than EJ. Seems to be working for our storm odds this year...
  22. Kmlwx
    Wow - that's essentially every county in PA except for two three
  23. Kmlwx
    Wonder if the usual spots (around Potomac etc) where winds sometimes get a little more backed due to local factors could enhance a tor threat. Either that or perhaps some factor that could back the winds a bit more isn't being seen yet. Nonetheless, I like the sounds of a day 2 ENH with decent discussion wording.
  24. Kmlwx
    You're closer to the forcing and multiple models carry some sort of cells or complex through your area. SEPA has a little mini tornado allery IIRC.
  25. Kmlwx
    Seems fairly standard - I guess the comment at the end is unusual - but they are saying they don't think we will achieve that given the unidirectional wind.
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