Kmlwx
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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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I'd say based on the number of damage reports, this is going to be a verified ENH. A bit south of where the main area was outlooked. Any ground truth from Columbia?
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This is reminiscent of the "classic" solid lines of storms that some of us have discussed as being less common than in the 90s and earlier 2000s.
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UMD did something similar a few years back. Turns out they didn't use NWS warnings but used the Accuweather service instead.
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Well..if that was a TOR on the ground it went right over my apartment
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Howard County cell might have 80mph winds with it based on velocity. Looks like easily 65mph+ based on velocity.
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Howard County is getting pounded according to radar. I'm seeing sime 60kt+ readings.
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Radar shows big wind nearing Dayton, MD
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Doesn't look all that wound up so far.
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Is that a hint of a notch south of Point of Rocks?
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Echo tops have really started to come up.
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If you believe the HRRR past two runs, the warned part of the line could grow upscale and deliver a decent hit to the area between DC and Balt. But HRRR could bust from 1-4 hours out.
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First warning out.
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0750.html
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60 percent chance of a watch for portions of the area and to the north.
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Tracking something like June 4, 2008 again would be a treat. I remember watching the event start to unfold at lunch and in my 6th period class where I had access to a computer. Sprinted home through the woods (I lived close) after school to fire up all of my radar programs (I had StormLab at the time). I was a total weenie back in 2008...
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CIPS still is suggestive of more chances at severe coming. Pretty good analog signal for some severe at the 168hr mark on the extended analogs. There should be chances over the next week or two...whether they result in anything of significance remains to be seen.
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Yeah - everything is far too conditional today for a shot at a moderate I think. In fact, if there was a gun to my head I'd actually learn more towards shrinkage of the ENH or elimination of it.
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Clouds have thickened up here in Potomac, MD - need to get these out of here. My feelings on today are heading downward not upward at the moment.
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Hoping to end up somewhere between Yoda and you. Maybe I'm already there.
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SPC seems to hint at a chance of an outlook upgrade later pending trends.
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Just a little humor - the CIPS analogs from the 0z run for the 24hr mark have 5/31/2008 as an analog. I mention this because a few days later that year on June 4th we had one of our more impressive severe weather outbreaks in the last 15 years. That was a lot of fun IMBY. SET THE TABLE
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I think I might slowly be turning into you...should I be worried?
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Dews need to come up in a hurry. We are still in the low to mid 50s for dews at best. That'll help a lot with instability. Hopefully we can advect some juicy dews in.
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Yeah the most recent HRRR runs pretty much suck - just isolated activity.
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Sun is out here with thin clouds around. On my way to work (currently between Silver Spring and Rockville)
