Kmlwx
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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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LWX in their early AM discussion seems very bullish despite them also mentioning uncertainty for late next week. Too far out to say anything for now.
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Luckily it's 8 days away.
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Way out there - but the GFS has a decent setup it seems for next Friday...
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Instability will be the question mark with Friday. Shear should be more than sufficient. Looks like a chance later in the weekend maybe too. (Sunday?)
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Friday will probably be all about the CAPE. If the CAPE is too low it'll probably be a pencil thin line of gusty showers.
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Wow - you're right it looks really nice.
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We are still pretty early season. Though I guess La Plata was an April event. Friday would seem to me to be the better option for now.
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Meh
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Still looks like Monday holds some marginal potential for severe. Probably a good shot at a few rumbles of thunder at least. LWX mentions storms in their PM forecast discussion. Nothing looks particularly robust - so certainly no outbreaks or widespread severe for us.
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I'm not in yet - just making that clear
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The only times it is acceptable for dews to be above 60 is when it will bring a severe risk. #ChangeMyMind The setup doesn't look super robust but at least it's something to track.
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The old GFS has some severe risk maybe next week.
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I had hail in Columbia just before 9pm. Smaller than pea sized - a few good CG strikes too. That's a win in my book.
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NAM 3k was pretty dry if not completely dry for a lot of locations in our area.
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Well south and east appears to be the site for any action this PM.
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Been busy at work all morning - what a disaster. Maybe we can eke out a rumble of thunder.
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Even in low activity years - it only takes a single day/event to really make a or break our severe season around these parts. A region-wide significant squall line can make a season pretty memorable. Though I'd like multiple storm days ideally. Thunderstorms are one of the few redeeming qualities about triple H weather around here.
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It's March...and even though we probably have a few more winter weather threats ahead...it's time to launch the 2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx thread. Pattern stuff can go in here, discussion leading up to events and more. Same guidelines as past years. Thread will probably idle for a month or two - let's hope for some general excitement this year.
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Yeah - I think CWG is about as good as it gets in terms of communication. Agree 100% Meanwhile - back over to snow here in Colesville, MD. Now plow yet on our dead end street.
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They didn't explicitly have an 8 inch range. They use the probability system. This might be an unpopular opinion - but I think a forecaster is good if they communicate to the public well. I don't think a good forecaster necessarily is the one that nails a forecast to a 2 inch range. The best forecasters these days are the ones that do not hype - and show the range of possibilities. Yeah - a nailed 2 inch forecast range is great - but some of that is also luck. Banding in this area generally precludes any sort of broad brushed uniform amounts anyway.
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Sleeting here still - just did the 2nd clearing of the driveway/walkway and it's definitely not as fluffy as it was earlier. Distinct wet layer and then sleet on top. Harder to shovel.
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4" but after some compaction in Colesville, MD Also it is sleeting here right now.
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Just wait until our rockin' March.
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Neat feature coming in from the west -
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Amazing that I drove down to Colesville/Silver Spring to my parent's house around 4:30 this morning and it was like a typical drive. Woke up again around 7:45 to a complete blanket of snow. Just finished shoveling the driveway and walkway - haven't measured yet.
