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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    10z HRRR sends a legit looking supercell over Central Maryland this PM
  2. Kmlwx
    Are we looking at the same NAM? I don't see much of anything to get excited about on the NAM (18z OR 00z)
  3. Kmlwx
    Tomorrow's threat appears to now be focused NW of the area by the longer range HRRR and the 3km NAM
  4. Kmlwx
    Long range 12z HRRR (lol) has a streak of very nice UD helicity across the area tomorrow PM. Both today and tomorrow look good on simradar
  5. Kmlwx
    Days and days and days of MRGL
  6. Kmlwx
    To be honest- hearing my friends (non weather enthusiasts) and coworkers - most people still do not understand which is worse (watch vs warning). A lot of this is ignorance - watches don't trigger CMAS so it should be fairly obvious to the public that "TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY" is more serious than "CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE"
  7. Kmlwx
    The latest (11z) HRRR has essentially nothing
  8. Kmlwx
    I'm right around 270 and Montrose - evil looking clouds but no tornado of course. Then heavy rain.
  9. Kmlwx
    And he's back
  10. Kmlwx
    You seem awfully bullish. Who are you?
  11. Kmlwx
    That frontal analysis on the meso discussion map indicates warmfront nearby. That will definitely enhance tornado risk.
  12. Kmlwx
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0451.html
  13. Kmlwx
    Temps vaulting to 70+ in areas under the sunshine.
  14. Kmlwx
    Empire State Building sized hail right now in Potomac.
  15. Kmlwx
    Sounds like Sterling may do a 16z balloon launch per the 13z SPC outlook text.
  16. Kmlwx
    SIGTOR!
  17. Kmlwx
    I mean LR really only goes out to 16 days and even that can be wildly inaccurate. We still have all of May for something to pop up. Some of our events don't present themselves until they are inside of 5-7 days. Plenty of time left - I'd say it's been a fairly active April compared to some other years - even if last night was relatively tame.
  18. Kmlwx
    Last Sunday was significantly more exciting (even though I slept through it). The season is still pretty young. Check back in May - and June.
  19. Kmlwx
    Weak couplet went right over my parent's house in Colesville. Nothing heard/seen. County police 4D air indicated maybe something was on ground but nothing heard after that.
  20. Kmlwx
    Moderate for DC or I'm not interested
  21. Kmlwx
  22. Kmlwx
    A lot of the severe parameters seem to have a cutoff of the Potomac (roughly) on a lot of the runs.
  23. Kmlwx
    Yoda - LWX does have grounds to issue the *watch* but the amounts certainly have been cut on some of the recent guidance. Also the strip of maximum is going to be REALLY narrow as shown on a lot of guidance. Some places might get 0.25-0.5 and a few isolated spots in the jackpot corridors may get 3. But this is not going to be a widespread 2-4 inch flood event. The watch is probably because flooding WILL occur but it's not going to be prolific area-wide flooding like EJ wants So the watch is warranted - but it's not likely to be a major river flooding event or anything of that nature.
  24. Kmlwx
    Clarifying my above post - I still think there's a severe risk - but best will be south of the Potomac and especially closer to SEVA and such.
  25. Kmlwx
    The severe risk is non-zero but I'd put local odds of it being better than Sunday evening pretty low. This looks like a bigger event in the Carolinas.
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