Kmlwx

Pouring here now in Colesville, MD

Mesoanalysis begs to differ on instablity. Plenty of CAPE

No - it will likely curve southeast and south with time.

Hell of a derecho going through the Midwest right now. One measured gust was to 106mph!

Just looked at the CFS and Cansips on the TT site for giggles. Both seem to show positive height anomalies over us for all of winter. Next.

We've settled into a bit of a boring stretch post-tropical - other than some pop up shower/storms here and there. @losetoa6 - let's see if the supposed active pattern can net us something more than a MRGL risk day. All eyes on the tropics too in the coming weeks to see if they wake back up. Getting two tropical systems to impact the area in one season would be pretty sweet. Actually - let's just go big - 5 or bust.

That cell near Bath has some spin in it.

How can you not...it's just so perfect. Honestly - it hasn't been terrible with at least outlining where storms may be in the anecdotal times I've watched it. NAM nest is a snoozer for most of us today.

I'd feel pretty good about being in Northern Virginia this afternoon if you like storms. Especially from like Sterling to La Plata and SW of there. DC proper and MBY is more of a question mark.

The Herderps still really likes DC proper with a blob.

I re-positioned to my parent's house over closer to Silver Spring for today. I think I might still be just a hair too far east based on what the HRRR is showing.

The ARW and ARW2 both have that same supercellular looking thing for NoVA and the La Plata area. HRDRPS is pretty nice for DC and a swath of the area tomorrow.

The good news is that it's the HRRR at extremely long ranges. The bad news is...well...you know.

The long range 18z HRRR crushes La Plata... That thing is a beast of a cell on the model - and a long tracker too.

So much attention being given to Isaias that it was beginning to look like I was talking to myself in here - Even @yoda was gone! What do you think for Sunday?

Sneaky sneaky - Slight risk posted for areas from DC and to the west for tomorrow.

The latest NAM sort of peaks our instability too early in the day on Sunday. It has a swath of good CAPE over the area around 12z before it shifts north and east of the area. We still have instability of course, but it demonstrates that the best alignment of parameters is likely (at least for now) to be to the north and east. This is what SPC is showing in the area outlined in the marginal risk. HM on Twitter (posted above) indicated VA northward - but I'd be a lot more cautious about including the DC area in that right now. I think it could yield some interesting storms - but any "significant severe" risk is likely to not be in our backyards. Mappy is well positioned I suppose. Of course, caveats apply like it being the NAM at range - and it's just now coming into view of the NAM nest. However, GFS has shown similar solutions. Was hoping for a sneaky event to slide in while we all watch Isaias.

The trend has definitely been to continue favoring north of us for Sunday's potential severe event. Marginal risk from SPC - but honestly...you can even see in their map and discussion how the threat is north of us. Not sure we'll get a win on this one.

Don't worry everyone - we'll find a way to get nothing from the Sunday severe and then whiff on Isaias.

CIPS is lit up for Sunday.

I think we might end up being just a BIT too far south for the meat and potatoes. But we'll continue to monitor. Maybe it shifts around.

SPC and the GFS seem to like Sunday afternoon. It looks like the best threat/parameters may reside to our north, but we are at least close enough to monitor now.

Important to remember that surface wind doesn't necessarily indicate what's going on higher up...and vice versa I suppose