Kmlwx

Haven't read back in the thread yet - but it sounds like the LWX radar had a pretty serious failure.

0z GFS vs 0z Euro at hr144 lol

Euro is like comically slower than last run.

GFS is slower again and appears to be more amped again.

Last 8 runs of GFS.

Man...the 12z Euro looked robust at H5

CMC and ICON also look to have stepped a bit in that direction too. Lots to change but this is one to watch.

12z GFS looks deeper with the trough. Could be trending towards the Euro. Big implications if that's the case. I was surprised CIPS was so hefty given the big difference in the modeling.

Knowing our luck it will slow but only to Wed AM and ruin the entire event due to bad timing.

Sept 18 2012 is showing up in CIPS. That was a day 2 hatched to day 1 moderate day for us. 10 percent tor and 45 percent wind. Lots of reports too. The SE sector does show 2001 at the number 2 analog spot. I'm officially interested. And CIPS is based on the GFS not even the Euro.......

Also of note, CIPS is really lit up for the 120hr mark on the 00z suite. Bullseye maybe a touch NE of some of us, but right in our backyards.

Don't have a lot of time right now, but the 00z Euro H5 maps have a ln overall resemblance to the reanalysis maps from Sept 24 2001. Mainly in that they both have a deep trough axis cutting through the TN area and ridging out west.

Oh snap. I thought we might be done for the year

FFW always has triggered my CMAS. I'd turn on your test notifications to see if you get the test ones. I have a coworker that wasn't getting about 50 percent of the CMAS notifications

There are 3 to 4 water rescues in progress in Montgomery County with plenty of heavy rain still occurring. Is that not a valid CMAS activation for a FFW?

There is lightning showing up on Radarscope - so there must be thunder somewhere in the storms!

Sun angle still melts the snow with alarming speed even in late December if the sun is out right after a snow event. Definitely not challenging you - so hope you're not taking it that way. My point is, the only tried and true way to get "long lasting" snow cover is either to get a huge quantity of snow, or some sort of "cap" on the snow cover like a sleet or ice layer. I've even seen snow melt during the day with temps at like 25 or below if the sun is out. Give me January, big snow storm, no big warm up right after and a sleety storm to top it off. 1-3" will be gone quick unless you time a vodka cold airmass right after it.

My target for snow is Jan-Feb. Sun angle is not the huge deal that many people make it out to be. January is our climo coldest period, and February has a higher probability of the huge HECS type storms. Don't get me wrong, I love December snow too - but we can accumulate fine in January and into February with heavy snow - and it will even stick around for a while if it's a big enough storm and isn't followed quickly by 60-70 degree temps. Helps if there's a nice crusty layer on top of course. Not directed at you - but I think people forget easily that lowest sun angle does not equal climo coldest. Just like how June 21st is not our climo warmest day of the year.

My guess is this will end up being remembered for lightning instead of severe - not seeing any LSRs even yet.

They may just be warning broad rotation. But that MoCo one did look pretty good on a few of the TDWRs. It doesn't look great right now.

Is LWX in SAILS? Would think they'd use it during this.

Interestingly - I was hearing thunder WAY out ahead of this storm. Farther than usual.

It kind of just looks like one of those "bookend vortex" type things.

We'll see if it is transient or more substantial. It looks like it might spin up and then die off pretty quick. But who knows.

I'm seeing rotation on the MoCo cell near Darnestown perhaps.