Kmlwx

Well...when I walked out to my car a little while ago (Arundel Mills area). All my windows were frozen over, a bottle of water inside had frozen and the washer fluid froze on contact. I'm just going to take the weenie approach and assume that I have a local cold dome that will make me invincible to the changeover. Might head back to my parent's place in Colesville to watch this one. Probably similar totals overall...

No. It was the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension. It was awful.

Silly @mappy - You really think people here can be rational? Big reason I just stay quiet during most model run style threads - I know I'll read something wrong...I'll stick to spamming the forum during severe season.

Remember though - surface temps are not the sole determining factor for ratios. You can have temps in the teens and be getting poor ratios if other factors like the snow growth zones are not lined up.

It's 5 days away and you are in a climo less favored part of the area.

I've stayed at one hotel during COVID and the precautions they were taking were pretty good. Sealing the room after cleaning with a seal, glass barriers in front of the counter, keycard returns in a slot instead of to an actual person, distancing enforced. I felt safer at the hotel than I do when I go into the office one day a week. The hotel appeared to be occupied less than 20% from what I could tell.

If only that was inches.

I actually heard thunder as that stuff passed by. I'll consider that a win on November 30.

Little notch maybe near ADW

There's a few areas on radar I'm watching. I think I'll be just a smidge too far north and west here in the Hanover/Severn area. But Charles County, MD looks interesting right now. ETA: Velocity scans have that typical "spin up" kind of look.

The NAM twins have been improving the last few runs. The long range 18z HRRR looked good for DC and east as well.

NAM has 85 knot winds at 850mb over the bay on Monday. Dynamic storm system!

It's essentially December - so we shouldn't expect much of anything. But we'll all keep an eye on it I'm sure

Record is 74 for today at DCA.

Yeah - SPC does have a mention of that window in the D4-8 outlook. One exception may be near the end of the period (days 7-8/23rd-24th) in the upper Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, if a more intensely amplified northern-stream cyclone, as forecast by operational ECMWF (but not deterministic GFS/CMC nor several EC ensemble members), verifies over the southern ON/lower Great Lakes region. Such a scenario would strengthen frontal forcing under intense flow aloft for potential low-topped convective band(s). However, at such a long time range, predictability is very low for such a solution.

Hefty rain and some good gusts with this activity in the Severn/Hanover area right now.

Big polygons showing up - typical with this kind of a setup to warn essentially the entire line - regardless of radar velocity it seems. Line looking nice - especially the area near the Mason-Dixon line. It's too bad we don't go right from severe season into blizzards. Imagine having something to track almost every week all year. Dec-Mar = Winter storms Apr-Aug = Severe thunderstorms/wedges Sept-Oct = Less severe but still some and tropical Nov-Dec = Synoptic wind rippage

I think they have to then declare the growing season as over. It's possible they had a warning but NWS determined it didn't hit it.

The PVC is a great idea! Couldn't a local government issue a curfew?

Could be. But most will realize that the candy will touch other people's hands prior to being received in your child's candy bag. Doubtful many homeowners are going to go to the lengths of wearing gloves. And you have to be within 6ft to get candy unless you're tossing it into a bag. I know a few counties are already "strongly discouraging" it. I'd assume the more lax jurisdictions will completely allow it and likely the more rural locations as well. I think people will still try - but far less households are going to open their doors. Perhaps the unattended bowls.

I doubt there will be many trick-or-treaters at all. And most events are probably off the table. Lots of bars already shuttered again.

This is the most H20 comment I could have woken up to. Now you have to change your username to FogBoobz

Long range 6z GFS is funny.

SPC has been throwing out mention of the *chance* of severe potential towards next weekend in the D4-8 outlooks the last day or two. Too far out.

Bull-gear went bad. That's about the longest repair that the radar can have to endure. Add that to the fact that ROC (Radar Operations Center) is busy rebuilding the Lake Charles site. Bull-gear requires upwards of 15,000 pounds of equipment to be lifted into the radome and then for the entire unit to be lifted up so the gear can be serviced/replaced.