Kmlwx

One "Radar Watching Hand Wringer" thread and one "It's Snowing!" thread.

Off the DE/MD border coastline isn't going to do it for us. Would like it a decent bit south and east of there with the tuck. I glanced at a bunch of the models earlier and they seem to be focused in that area. Down off Norfolk or even a little north of there would be much better IMO.

Can we temporarily ban the word "dryslot" in the main thread

I don't think the RGEM is a "terrible" model - but when it was the only one showing the banding arcing all the way back for the DC-Balt corridor I knew it was probably going to cave. That's when I tempered my expectations and buckled in for the WAA.

Funny random story.... When I switched schools in college - I managed to be home in Silver Spring during all three of the biggie storms in 2009-2010. My parent's still claim to this day that I planned my withdrawal process from my first college around the snowstorms

I think there needs to be a bigger understanding that there's a big difference between "disappointment in an underperforming storm" and hand wringing over models while the storm is actually happening that you forget to step outside and actually experience the snow. Similar to the people that go to a concert and spend the entire thing pointing their phone trying to get the best angle for their Snapchat or FB story. I used to do that with 4th of July fireworks - when I finally decided to put the darn camera down and watch - things were a lot more relaxed. Once you're taken one firework picture...you've seen them all. Unless of course you're @Ian - who somehow manages to make every new photo some beautiful masterpiece that puts everyone else's work to shame.

If anyone else is using GR2Analyst - I had the program crashing on me a ton this morning when start polling - I'm terrible at keeping the software up to date. Head over to the owners forum and download the latest update. That solved the crashing for me.

Meteorology Therapists should be a thing

It's the internet...it's done a huge disservice to the hobby in a lot of regards. I love CWG but having a group like that make "modelology" semi accessible for the general public has probably also made things worse. Now everyone wants to be an armchair met and it mixes with all of us weenies on here for a nice little fondue of hand wringing weenies and arm chair mets. We always had the "sad" folks in the obs threads - but it's definitely worse it seems now. It is what it is I suppose. I'll enjoy my snow.

My parents and other adults always used to say "you're growing up so fast!" when I was a kid (I feel like all kids hear this...) and I never really understood or saw it. Now being 30 and seeing kids on my parent's street and some of my cousins kids shoot up like bamboo is insane. Bob Chill's 6ft kids would tower over me (I'm 5'7") - WHAT IS HE FEEDING THEM?! It's been a heck of a last year or so...lots of adjusting and "winging it" - hopefully some sense of normalcy will return later this year. With how rough the past 12 months or so have been...and with how much last winter sucked...that's why I really am grumbling a bit more than usual at all the hand wringing. Fluffiest snow I've gotten in a while. If it shut off right now it would of course be a disappointment...but it's gorgeous out there. I won't try to force people to see things the Bob Chill/me way - but it sucks that so many people are all down in the dumps about snow.

Roads were partially covered here in the 8am hour. Looks like our side roads are now completely covered. Closing in on (or perhaps at) one inch at this point. A poster above has it right - kind of "drizzling" pixie dust right now. Already ran the shovel down the driveway. Very dusty snow - super easy to shovel.

I hear you - we all are chasing HECS storms. But of course not every storm is going to be a HECS or MECS. For me it's all about the scenery - get the grass blades covered up completely and I'll Jebwalk and enjoy the snow. Unfortunately, the advent of the internet and widespread distribution of snow maps and weather models has really hurt the enjoyment of snow for weather weenies everywhere. We could be having another winter like last winter - so I try to look at the bright side. It's snowing and it's sticking (for the most part).

Tried to DM you. Clean out yer darn groupie mail! Can't believe your youngsters are that old. I'll be 30 later this year and I still feel like a kid sometimes. My metabolism sure tells me I'm not 20 anymore...

It does seem it might be a legit drier area - but I'm not too worried about it. In a bit of a lull right now but it looks "bandy" in NoVA heading our way. I've already been on a Jebwalk™ this morning. If we completely fail on the deform tomorrow I'll still chalk this up as a good storm. It's powdery goodness out there right now. I'm taking the Bob Chill approach. Hand wringing gets us nowhere.

Enjoy the snow! Don't worry about a potential dry slot. It's pretty out there! There's patchy radar coverage in that area and it always shows less snow than is actually there. Just look at the LWX radar you can even see the beam with a little slice cut out of it. If we spend all day hand wringing about dry slots we'll miss the great powder falling now. Take the Jebman approach!

You must have a microclimate. It's been pretty good so far here in Colesville. You've been pretty down on this event the entire time it seems...not just today.

Even the RGEM/HRDPS are decently NE of the area basing off the earlier runs. I'm sure we'll get light stuff Monday but I think this is the main show for a lot of us (the today stuff). It's gorgeous out there so I'm certainly not complaining. Looking over at the long term thread it seems we may not be done either. Pretty Sunday!

Great snow scene out here in Colesville. It looks like the majority of the guidance has adjusted the banding to the north and east of us. Need that low to tuck/stall farther south than it is shown on models. Still seemingly within the margin of error - but I'm thinking we better live in the moment and enjoy what we are getting today. Not sure we'll max potential on part 2 tomorrow.

Ditto what Bob said over here in Colesville, MD at my parent's house. Slipped out just in time for a coffee run. Pretty slick on some of the neighborhood streets already.

Not a complaint - more of a reassurance/observation. I'd think a lot of folks may mix - perhaps not during the early parts of the WAA thump - but as it transitions to the lull period sleet is probable.

Decent amount of folks concerned about sleet/mixing. I'd think some sleet or mixing is possible for many areas outside of the favored all-snow locations. Don't the bigger storms always tend to mix? We've discussed this extensively in the past.

Well now I'm definitely opening the Copper Fox bottle I have in storage. The legend is back! I don't even want to know how old your kids are now....that telescope night feels like it was an eternity ago! Hope you and your loved ones are are well!

Or at least not the full headers. It does sometimes end up being helpful if anybody is every reading through the thread in the future - as those links will die. Though I guess watches/warnings are available via archives too.

What is it with those select few users popping up in the main thread with absolutely no additions to the discussion and no citing of evidence or backing of their points of view?

I'd say that's VERY reasonable. Better to start low and increase with confidence as you get closer. If the CCB fails, 6-10" will be a tall task to hit for widespread areas. Going from 6-10" downwards is a bad look. Remember that CWG is geared towards lay people and not us weenies on a weather forum. They are operating under a different approach than pure weenies.