Kmlwx

The sound has gotten louder and louder the last few days. I drove through Laurel this morning and could hear it even while in the car with all of the windows up.

The GFS beyond 300 hours kind of has the ring of fire look to it. Big ridge in the center of the country/midwest and us on the eastern edge.

Today was the day. In the last hour or two I'm seeing increases in the hundreds it seems under the trees in the front yard. Can definitely hear a few singing already - but mostly it's tons of them coming up out of the lawn and crawling towards the trees. Here we gooooo

*Think* I can hear one or two. And found a small-ish shell on a tree. But definitely not major emergence here today. But between that and I did see one flying earlier. Probably going to go big here tomorrow with the warmer night and closer to 90 tomorrow.

It could just as easily be into June that we are waiting to see anything decent.

We'll see if today is finally the day around here in Colesville, MD. As of this morning still nothing showing. But it was another cool morning - full sunshine and 80 today should do it - and if not that - the forecast high of 86 and 89 for the following days should.

CIPS signal at 168hr

CIPS is showing some signal around the 240hr mark. Something to keep an eye on. Way out there, though.

Every time I see a picture or video of them coming out of the shells - I think of the movie Alien

My parent's house sits on the edge of NW Branch Park in the Colesville, MD area. If you're familiar with the area near Kemp Mill Rd and Randolph - they are sort of in that general area. My memory from 2004 is pretty spotty I'd assume. I remember it being a big deal and them going splat on the car windshield while driving - but I'm struggling to remember how prolific (or not) they were in the actual neighborhood. Their house was built in the 60s, and there really hasn't been new construction of homes at all in the past decades. I do seem to remember the noise being so loud it was creepy back then.

Have to imagine the cooler weather played at least some role in the splotchy emergence. Still really not much evidence around here. I've yet to see my first shell OR live cicada. Thought i Heard some of the singing in the distance the other day - but may have been imagining it. I've only been able to find one or two trees on my parent's property that have any holes. My condo up in Hanover/Arundel Mills is in a new-ish development so I'm doubting there will be any emergence there at all (it was all bulldozed/dug up in the years leading up to the neighborhood being built).

Extended CIPS at the 312hr mark looks much better.

Just took a short walk into the woods by my parent's house (Northwest Branch Unit #4) and couldn't find a single trace of cicada activity other than a few sporadic holes. I don't remember if 2004 was so splotchy with the early emergence.

It really depends on what kind of 80s - if you mean 80s with 40-50s dews - yes please. 80s with 70s dews nooo thank you. You know me - only time 60+ dews are acceptable is if they bring us woo storms!

I don't remember cicadas peeing on me in 2004 - but I was a real youngster so maybe I was just ignoring the fact that I was being showered by pee.

The low dewpoints depicted mostly throughout the run lately on the GFS have been impressive. Other than a short window of 60s dews in the middle of the run (near the 180hr mark) the dewpoints remain low for this time of year. Very non-soupy.

Do the air temperatures have a big impact on them? I'd imagine unless we are down close to freezing - once they are out they will be fine. Is it just the soil temps that impact the emergence and then after that not much to hold them back?

Just a very rudimentary analysis - but we are cooked for a while it seems on severe potential (outside of a sneaky surprise or an isolated threat). Looking at the CIPS run from overnight, most of the US is devoid of major swaths of severe analog probs through the 120hr mark. Then...the extended range does show some promise - but mainly to our west and south and very late in the run. Looking at the GFS - the juicy dewpoints do try to make a run at us but get shunted largely to the south and then we get dry dewpoints again. Excellent look for comfortable weather through the run...not so nice if you're straining at the bit for more storm chances. I could see this being a bit of a rubber band style pattern - we go weeks and weeks with not a lot to track - and then something changes and bam we go on a heater for a week or two (or longer). Either that or we just have a very, very quiet later spring/early summer severe season.

Would think that the cool temps *could* delay the emergence a bit. But it would seem to me that on a very sunny day, even if the air temp is relatively cool, the soil temps can still rise with the baking sun.

Surprised it's even at 20%. This is a 5% kind of day IMO. At least until you get east of the bay.

Dewpoint down to 55 at JYO. If anything else is going to pop it'll probably be with that line of activity coming through the higher terrain now. Dews are still 66 at ADW, DCA, CGS

One thing that may kill chances - dews are already falling pretty close-in. Martinsburg, Winchester and Leesburg are all already into the upper 50s. GAI is still at 66 but the drop is probably starting there as well. It's possible that line going through Baltimore is the show today.

Lots of sunshine here now. Still think along and east of I-95 is the play here. And not anything too severe. After @George BM - mentioned Friday I took a look - does look promising for some small hail that day.

Mesoanalysis already has some pockets of 500 SBCAPE around. Not expecting anything too severe today. But a stronger cell or two if we can get some heating would be within reason. Mesoanalysis also shows a bit better shear parameters than yesterday. Satellite has some good clearing to the west - still pretty cloudy here in Colesville, MD.

Nothing significant - but it does look like the 0z ARW, ARW2 and NMM sweep a narrow line across some areas between 16z and 18z.