Kmlwx

I was kind of surprised to see the hatching for a D3 outlook. The outlook text reads less like a hatched day and more like a higher end SLGT day. Could just be because it's out in range for now. It looks like the NAM nest focuses the best parameters just to the west of the metro area, the 12k version had it in the immediate metro area and east. It looks like it still has that little meso-low type feature.

The 12z NAM (12km) is kind of insane for Sunday now. It looks like it tries to pop a little low right along the Mason-Dixon line which really ramps up the potential. Supercell composite is very high for Sunday PM for a decent chunk of the area. Remove that little meso-low feature and things maybe aren't as robust. Will be interesting to see what the 3km looks like (at range of course). For March...this has some higher end potential.

Take a look at this frame from the latest SREF on the SPC maps for 18z on Sunday............wow. That's some drool worthy stuff for @yoda

Yeah the NAM looks pretty decent for Sunday around 18-21z. Let's see if it pans out. We are fringed by the hatching on that SPC outlook...but it's also day 3.

Ummmm - did not expect that

Looks as if we will keep waiting. Not much of anything of interest on the long range GFS either. Not surprised - but we'll see what April brings.

The NAM is too fast for Friday as well. Would be too early in the day to maximize heating.

Worth reminding the less frequent severe posters - it is still VERY early for our severe season. Anything this early is usually bonus gravy (sort of like November accumulating snow). April is even a bit early but can definitely have some beefier setups. May/June can be what either makes or breaks our severe weather season as a whole.

That discussion does a good job of summarizing the potential outcomes. Anything from nothing to some severe weather. Covers all the bases

I'll watch it with one eye for now. Not too shabby for March.

This is the time of year when I start giving CIPS analogs some general glances to see what kinds of threats may be coming down the pike. It's still VERY early for our region. Patience.

So many of our events are razor thin margins with timing or other factor. And 12 hours is often on the higher end of how we bust. Often it's the difference of just like 5-8 hours that kills us.

Hopefully April will start to bring opportunities for us. But often we end up waiting until May/June for the meaty stuff.

That doesn't look terrible for a VERY early season thunderstorm threat.

Yeah 37 and rain sounds miserable. Well so does 33 and rain - if we can somehow luck our way into a few inches before we sprint into spring, I'm all for it. Didn't mean to come across as argumentative before (if I did). I'm mostly on the same train as you - but I just love pushing back any sustained heat as long as we can. Summer is long enough here!

In March. Not in April or other months of course. Bring on the 70s and sun in April without question.

March has been a bona fide winter storm month in recent years. And not even like the bold section - like actual accumulation events. If we can luck our way into that - I'd take a few inches of snow (even if it melts quickly) over a 70 degree day.

To each their own - but keep the warmth at bay for now. I'd like to keep my A/C on the sidelines for as long as possible. Before you know it it'll be 95 degrees with a 70+ dewpoint. Now if it stays 65-70 and not humid - I'm all for it. Only time heat is acceptable to me is if it comes with interesting weather.

If you get enough hail - you can count it as a blizzard.

The distribution of users is about as anybody would have expected. No huge surprises! Looking forward to the link! Thank you!

I think for TORs there's two definitions of "big" - there's widespread and then big as in a major tornado (like College Park or La Plata). Ivan was totally next level, though.

For widespread (meaty severe) you are absolutely right. I want to say that @Eskimo Joe has said in the past that our derecho return interval is like 4-6 years. But that 2012 one was not only a derecho but a violent one...so perhaps even less frequent on that. Severe weather around these parts is a real feast or famine type of thing. Where winter wx tends to impact large swaths - big severe is usually in pretty narrow corridors - even when it's a "big" day. Think about the situation where a few big boy cells go up and drop baseball sized hail. 97% of the area likely will feel like they "missed out" but in the realm of severe - it could have been a relatively big time severe day.

I'm in it for fascinating/interesting weather. Ideal year for me would be a ton of tracking of interesting weather with spurts of nice weather for a breather in between (but not too long). Give me a few minor to moderate snow events to track, one or two larger one (or a HECS) in the winter. Then in the spring, give me an active severe season when we still have good shear to combine with instability (low shear/high CAPE days are pulsey and generally very localized). Keep summer from getting too hot and humid (unless we'll fuel big storm complexes) with some tropical downpour days to track and perhaps some pulsey severe events during our lower shear portions of the year. Throw in some tracking of tropical trouble in the late summer and fall and start the cycle over. Wouldn't hurt to toss in a really dynamic March 93 style storm even if it mixed or changed over in the metro areas - would just be insane to watch that unfold on the latest iteration of GOES and with the development of the internet.

Something zoomable could be really nice, I agree! If people were relatively accurate (even if not precise locations) - you could see who your #wxnerd neighbors are!

It'll be interesting tracking soil temps. Apparently mid 60s soil temps are when we should start seeing the invasion. Assuming a really warm stretch could move the timeframe up a bit. Get your screens patched up!