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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Long range 6z HRRR looked pretty good, actually lol.
  2. Kmlwx
    LOTS of thunder with this stuff. Long, rolling stuff too. Not bad for a day I expected to yield nothing.
  3. Kmlwx
    Predator satiation theory as well. Fascinating - albeit kind of creepy looking creatures.
  4. Kmlwx
    Something can always sneak up on us (just like snow in winter) but nothing "big" is showing up at this point. CIPS extended analogs don't show any signal for our region either. Late April is probably what we are looking at for now - or even early May. That's not atypical either. La Plata 2002 wasn't until late April. Still early for us.
  5. Kmlwx
    GFS is pretty lackluster on parameters. We'll see.
  6. Kmlwx
    2007 had the major glacier sleetbomb. That was VDay 2007.
  7. Kmlwx
    Huge swath of the country is lit up on the extended CIPS analogs from last night's 0z runs for the 168hr timeframe.
  8. Kmlwx
    Looks like we'll be waiting longer for a legit threat. CIPS isn't enthused on anything really on the extended analogs. Something could sneak up, of course.
  9. Kmlwx
    NWS wasn't kidding when they said "low topped" and "shallow" - echo tops are completely unimpressive.
  10. Kmlwx
    The watch probs are very low.
  11. Kmlwx
    I find it semi humorous that the strongest part of the line is in the northern parts of the area - farthest away from the ENH risk to the south and east. Rest of the line looks paltry for now.
  12. Kmlwx
    We'll see how these storms do as they roll off the higher terrain.
  13. Kmlwx
    Looks like LWX is going with the huge polygons for warnings this PM.
  14. Kmlwx
    It looks like a fair amount of areas will see at least a few peaks of sun based on the visible satellite trends. How long those peaks last remains to be seen - but of course...the more sun the higher the chances of storms is.
  15. Kmlwx
  16. Kmlwx
    Visible satellite does seem to show a some breaks in the clouds to the south and west in the mountains. I question whether that will actually make any progress into the metro area, though.
  17. Kmlwx
    I'm not enthused on Today. It could be a garden variety thunderstorm day. Like I've been saying - still super early for the meat and potatoes stuff.
  18. Kmlwx
    If this bias applies tomorrow - the entire subforum would be out of the game
  19. Kmlwx
    The GFS has pretty paltry CAPE values for most of the metro area. The NAM looks pretty meh as well - but the NAM nest does send a healthy line through. If it were me at the SPC desk (thank god it isn't) I'd probably trim the hatched area to remove DC proper. Severe weenies near Fredericksburg are seemingly better positioned.
  20. Kmlwx
    Latest guidance seems to want to get the best activity to the south and east of the DC area. Not surprising - and certainly inline with the overall SPC outlook area. NAM and the nest don't look quite as impressive as they did for the immediate metro area as they did yesterday.
  21. Kmlwx
    People start paying attention when you pop in.
  22. Kmlwx
    18z NAM continues to look decent for Sunday. It does look slightly less robust in a few regards - but really it's noise. Seems the potential is still solidly on the table.
  23. Kmlwx
    LWX mentions next Wednesday as another potential strong thunderstorm threat - but says it could be more of a high shear/low CAPE kind of setup due to timing and limited warm air advection.
  24. Kmlwx
    That map is just comical!
  25. Kmlwx
    Seems the model biases are always this way. NAM always tends to show bonkers soundings/parameters and GFS is more muted. Could be the first "true" threat of the year - will it also be the first bust?
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