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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    That complex of storms is looking really nice. Some nice wind velocity on it too.
  2. Kmlwx
    Watch probs are pretty low - but that's not unexpected given the parameters today. Two severe days in a row is always fun, though. Not super common (and we could make it three tomorrow).
  3. Kmlwx
    the ARW and ARW2 12z runs are really nice.
  4. Kmlwx
    Will be interesting to see where SPC coordinates the blue box. Wouldn't be surprised to see some of the Maryland counties included despite the meso discussion being primarily for VA.
  5. Kmlwx
    Now we countdown to the pity MD and potentially the pity watch.
  6. Kmlwx
    And of course on the latest mesoanalysis update they've come down a bit
  7. Kmlwx
    Mid-level lapse rates are better than we normally see around here. That should check at least one box for @Eskimo Joe
  8. Kmlwx
    13z HRRR is a little less robust until you get south of DC and then SE of DC. But still a good signal for something popping this afternoon.
  9. Kmlwx
    Yeah those images are potato quality. I always just wait for the survey. Although - based on the radar presentation I'd assume something along the TOR warned path will be found to have been a tornado.
  10. Kmlwx
    Further...the super long range HRRR has some nasty cells mainly to the south and east tomorrow.
  11. Kmlwx
    The NAM nest has come around to showing some activity this PM now.
  12. Kmlwx
    The latest run of the HRRR has some good cells erupting right over the area from 20z and after. This has been a change from the 06z run. So the 7, 8, 9 and now 10z have shown a similar progression of storms. Let's see if it holds.
  13. Kmlwx
    Glad you didn't end up like the witch in the Wizard of Oz!
  14. Kmlwx
    It's got the supercell look for sure.
  15. Kmlwx
    Still not really any signs of them other than some holes under select trees here in Colesville, MD. No sound of them yet either.
  16. Kmlwx
    Definitely a lot of bouncing around going on with the NAM and NAM nest. The sim reflectivity looks decent for tomorrow on the NAM nest now - even looks okay for Wednesday. Could we pull the rare 3 in a row for storms?
  17. Kmlwx
    There have been some decent sim reflectivity panels for this afternoon and evening. But yeah - tomorrow looks kind of cooked.
  18. Kmlwx
    Our best events come when SPC plays catchup Remember...we were only in a 5% area for most of the day on the 2012 derecho day.
  19. Kmlwx
    The parent NAM is really going gung-ho on Tuesday afternoon. Even the sim reflectivity looks good on the NAM nest but for mainly Virginia. There are some hefty SARS analogs showing up on the parent NAM as well.
  20. Kmlwx
    Getting pretty lucky in terms of damage IMBY right now. Just some twigs and small branches. PEPCO numbers look good - they've seemingly gotten a lot better in the last 10 years or so. Used to be 6 hour outages if a person farted.
  21. Kmlwx
    Any ground truth from the next batch of precip coming through the mountains now?
  22. Kmlwx
    I like how the "storm" motion in the warning is faster than the wind gusts
  23. Kmlwx
    JYO gusted to 60mph
  24. Kmlwx
    It's always the sneaky events! Tree down at the bottom of the street doing all kinds of creaking. If it falls it's taking the pole at the dead end out with it.
  25. Kmlwx
    REAL nice gust just now. Was standing on the front walkway watching and a bunch of little twigs started raining down and blowing out of the trees. They sting!
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