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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Looks like LWX is going with the huge polygons for warnings this PM.
  2. Kmlwx
    It looks like a fair amount of areas will see at least a few peaks of sun based on the visible satellite trends. How long those peaks last remains to be seen - but of course...the more sun the higher the chances of storms is.
  3. Kmlwx
  4. Kmlwx
    Visible satellite does seem to show a some breaks in the clouds to the south and west in the mountains. I question whether that will actually make any progress into the metro area, though.
  5. Kmlwx
    I'm not enthused on Today. It could be a garden variety thunderstorm day. Like I've been saying - still super early for the meat and potatoes stuff.
  6. Kmlwx
    If this bias applies tomorrow - the entire subforum would be out of the game
  7. Kmlwx
    The GFS has pretty paltry CAPE values for most of the metro area. The NAM looks pretty meh as well - but the NAM nest does send a healthy line through. If it were me at the SPC desk (thank god it isn't) I'd probably trim the hatched area to remove DC proper. Severe weenies near Fredericksburg are seemingly better positioned.
  8. Kmlwx
    Latest guidance seems to want to get the best activity to the south and east of the DC area. Not surprising - and certainly inline with the overall SPC outlook area. NAM and the nest don't look quite as impressive as they did for the immediate metro area as they did yesterday.
  9. Kmlwx
    People start paying attention when you pop in.
  10. Kmlwx
    18z NAM continues to look decent for Sunday. It does look slightly less robust in a few regards - but really it's noise. Seems the potential is still solidly on the table.
  11. Kmlwx
    LWX mentions next Wednesday as another potential strong thunderstorm threat - but says it could be more of a high shear/low CAPE kind of setup due to timing and limited warm air advection.
  12. Kmlwx
    That map is just comical!
  13. Kmlwx
    Seems the model biases are always this way. NAM always tends to show bonkers soundings/parameters and GFS is more muted. Could be the first "true" threat of the year - will it also be the first bust?
  14. Kmlwx
    I was kind of surprised to see the hatching for a D3 outlook. The outlook text reads less like a hatched day and more like a higher end SLGT day. Could just be because it's out in range for now. It looks like the NAM nest focuses the best parameters just to the west of the metro area, the 12k version had it in the immediate metro area and east. It looks like it still has that little meso-low type feature.
  15. Kmlwx
    The 12z NAM (12km) is kind of insane for Sunday now. It looks like it tries to pop a little low right along the Mason-Dixon line which really ramps up the potential. Supercell composite is very high for Sunday PM for a decent chunk of the area. Remove that little meso-low feature and things maybe aren't as robust. Will be interesting to see what the 3km looks like (at range of course). For March...this has some higher end potential.
  16. Kmlwx
    Take a look at this frame from the latest SREF on the SPC maps for 18z on Sunday............wow. That's some drool worthy stuff for @yoda
  17. Kmlwx
    Yeah the NAM looks pretty decent for Sunday around 18-21z. Let's see if it pans out. We are fringed by the hatching on that SPC outlook...but it's also day 3.
  18. Kmlwx
    Ummmm - did not expect that
  19. Kmlwx
    Looks as if we will keep waiting. Not much of anything of interest on the long range GFS either. Not surprised - but we'll see what April brings.
  20. Kmlwx
    The NAM is too fast for Friday as well. Would be too early in the day to maximize heating.
  21. Kmlwx
    Worth reminding the less frequent severe posters - it is still VERY early for our severe season. Anything this early is usually bonus gravy (sort of like November accumulating snow). April is even a bit early but can definitely have some beefier setups. May/June can be what either makes or breaks our severe weather season as a whole.
  22. Kmlwx
    That discussion does a good job of summarizing the potential outcomes. Anything from nothing to some severe weather. Covers all the bases
  23. Kmlwx
    I'll watch it with one eye for now. Not too shabby for March.
  24. Kmlwx
    This is the time of year when I start giving CIPS analogs some general glances to see what kinds of threats may be coming down the pike. It's still VERY early for our region. Patience.
  25. Kmlwx
    So many of our events are razor thin margins with timing or other factor. And 12 hours is often on the higher end of how we bust. Often it's the difference of just like 5-8 hours that kills us.
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