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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    One thing that may kill chances - dews are already falling pretty close-in. Martinsburg, Winchester and Leesburg are all already into the upper 50s. GAI is still at 66 but the drop is probably starting there as well. It's possible that line going through Baltimore is the show today.
  2. Kmlwx
    Lots of sunshine here now. Still think along and east of I-95 is the play here. And not anything too severe. After @George BM - mentioned Friday I took a look - does look promising for some small hail that day.
  3. Kmlwx
    Mesoanalysis already has some pockets of 500 SBCAPE around. Not expecting anything too severe today. But a stronger cell or two if we can get some heating would be within reason. Mesoanalysis also shows a bit better shear parameters than yesterday. Satellite has some good clearing to the west - still pretty cloudy here in Colesville, MD.
  4. Kmlwx
    Nothing significant - but it does look like the 0z ARW, ARW2 and NMM sweep a narrow line across some areas between 16z and 18z.
  5. Kmlwx
    Pretty much a snoozer for you and me (I'm in Colesville today). Just a little rain. Modeling has us getting missed to the south and east tomorrow as well. Ugh.
  6. Kmlwx
    That new warning for Loudoun and Fairfax is pretty meh on LWX radar.
  7. Kmlwx
    The HRRR seemed to keep the main show along I-66 and then through DC proper but not a lot north of there. Would like to see just a bit more northerly motion with the activity. It's more messy looking on radar lately - but wonde rif part of that is the higher terrain
  8. Kmlwx
    It's the entirety of Brood X coming to murderkill us all.
  9. Kmlwx
    Replying to myself but also @WxUSAF - Gotta wonder if it's something related to VA-267. At least roughly if you follow on Google Earth an imaginary line running from the radome to the ESE along 267 and then continue that line - it would end up somewhere near/just south of Easton...maybe traffic?
  10. Kmlwx
    I actually hopped over to Twitter to see if the person who kept mentioning it was mentioning it this time. Would be interesting to look at the path of the beam and the nearby terrain and buildings to see if one could identify a source. Definitely seems more common when there's actual returns coming in from the west.
  11. Kmlwx
    It's broad for the time being. Will be interesting to see how that cell/complex evolves as it comes out of the Blue Ridge areas. My personal prediction is that it'll get close to the metro area and gust out into the typical outflow and heavy rain
  12. Kmlwx
    Echo tops on that complex have been steadily increasing as well. Over 40kft now.
  13. Kmlwx
    Lots of clouds around now.
  14. Kmlwx
    Pretty much the entire CWA other than the extreme far NW counties.
  15. Kmlwx
    If it can grow - it's already kind of looking like one of those mythical long lines of severe storms that we've anecdotally all said we remember being more common in the 90s and 2000s.
  16. Kmlwx
    That complex of storms is looking really nice. Some nice wind velocity on it too.
  17. Kmlwx
    Watch probs are pretty low - but that's not unexpected given the parameters today. Two severe days in a row is always fun, though. Not super common (and we could make it three tomorrow).
  18. Kmlwx
    the ARW and ARW2 12z runs are really nice.
  19. Kmlwx
    Will be interesting to see where SPC coordinates the blue box. Wouldn't be surprised to see some of the Maryland counties included despite the meso discussion being primarily for VA.
  20. Kmlwx
    Now we countdown to the pity MD and potentially the pity watch.
  21. Kmlwx
    And of course on the latest mesoanalysis update they've come down a bit
  22. Kmlwx
    Mid-level lapse rates are better than we normally see around here. That should check at least one box for @Eskimo Joe
  23. Kmlwx
    13z HRRR is a little less robust until you get south of DC and then SE of DC. But still a good signal for something popping this afternoon.
  24. Kmlwx
    Yeah those images are potato quality. I always just wait for the survey. Although - based on the radar presentation I'd assume something along the TOR warned path will be found to have been a tornado.
  25. Kmlwx
    Further...the super long range HRRR has some nasty cells mainly to the south and east tomorrow.
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