Definitely a lot of bouncing around going on with the NAM and NAM nest. The sim reflectivity looks decent for tomorrow on the NAM nest now - even looks okay for Wednesday. Could we pull the rare 3 in a row for storms?
The parent NAM is really going gung-ho on Tuesday afternoon. Even the sim reflectivity looks good on the NAM nest but for mainly Virginia. There are some hefty SARS analogs showing up on the parent NAM as well.
Getting pretty lucky in terms of damage IMBY right now. Just some twigs and small branches. PEPCO numbers look good - they've seemingly gotten a lot better in the last 10 years or so. Used to be 6 hour outages if a person farted.
It's always the sneaky events!
Tree down at the bottom of the street doing all kinds of creaking. If it falls it's taking the pole at the dead end out with it.
REAL nice gust just now. Was standing on the front walkway watching and a bunch of little twigs started raining down and blowing out of the trees. They sting!
Velocity scans look pretty impressive on that radar activity coming over the mountains now. We will start to battle less mixing from the sun going down - but my guess is there's a good surge of wind damage with that precip.
Looking at the NAM nest and HRRR wind gust product over on the CoD site - you'd not expect a HWW...both are relatively tame with gusts outside the ridge tops.
Looking like the immediate DC-Balt corridor may be out of the game completely at this point. Thinking east of the Bay is where it's at. Oh well. We keep waiting for severe season!