Kmlwx

Next hour or two should be interesting to watch on radar.

My dewpoint has come back up to around 65, and GAI has recovered to 63. My mini-meltdown earlier is over. I'm feeling decent.

East of I-95 is probably a better statement.

Yeah - it seemed like the HRRR and some of the other CAMs wanted to push a little tongue of instability and better moisture up right to around DC proper - or even a bit north. Seems like where that gets to or sets up will determine. I still overall like where I am in eastern MoCo, but if I was in Poolesville or even Gaithersburg, I'm not sure I'd feel super warm and fuzzy about a higher severe threat tonight. Meanwhile, if I was in Annapolis I'd feel really nice.

This map tells a pretty interesting story. You can tell where the lower dewpoint air has gotten to. Looks like right around I-95 may be the dividing line. Will have to hope I'm on the right side of that line to see some action.

One thing I'm not sure I like seeing so close to the metro areas - is GAI's dewpoint has dropped to 57. Even CGS is down to 59. The immediate DC stations like DCA, ADW etc are still in the 60s, though. My (potentially not the greatest) sensor here in Colesville has gone from the mid-upper 60s down to 61.7 for the dew. We'll ideally need to advect some of the higher dewpoint air back in for my liking. I don't think we are going to get it done with 50s dews. That potentially could be why some of the CAM runs have shown the activity really getting going only once east of I-95. Could be a little razor thin margin for those in places like MoCo and western half of Howard.

Severe T'storm Watch for western portions of the area. It seems to be less frequently as of the past few years for them to segment the area in events like this. Perhaps a more strongly worded watch for us later if the trends continue towards a decent severe event? The probs on the watches so far have bene pretty low.

18z HRRR might be a smidge earlier again - but it's tiny adjustments at this point.

Could be a bit later given the timing even. Nighttime severe should make for a heck of a lightshow!

17z HRRR looks to focus the threat around Baltimore proper. Kind of amazing how far NWP has come. The complex has mostly been shifting around like a 50 mile or less range in placement.

Can't be mad at this map....

I remember we went through a stretch after 2012 when everyone was calling every line of storms a derecho. That got old quicker than TWC naming winter storms!

Nope. That's just a line of storms. Perhaps it may become a QLCS.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0965.html

No real changes to the 1630z SPC update.

Same general timeframe on that HRRR run - maybe more like 2z-3z for you. It looks like cells pop ahead of the original complex.

Latest HRRR might have even sped it up again. Has cells breaking out ahead of the complex during the 1-2z timeframe.

Noticed this as well. Looks decent. If we can nudge the timing even another hour or so earlier, I'll feel even better. Could be a fun night for lightning pictures.

The new 12z run of the NAM nest is perhaps an hour or so faster. If we add in that storms tend to clear the area faster than expected in most cases - that could bode well. Still bad timing - but a touch better.

Some of those tracks (if the low is still decently discernable) could be good for a tropical remnant TOR threat as well. Would be fun to see both the severe and tropical threads be hot at the same time.

12z HRRR sends the complex towards us and then pops new cells almost right over the area. But they don't crank until they are a bit east. I like the general idea of the panels, though. Keeps me interested (for now).

The wet ground is a good point. I'm really not sure what to think about this one - it seems the short range guidance is pretty consistent with having a little tongue of instability (despite the late night timing) match up with the shear. But timing is one of the primary things that likes to kill our chances around here (that and being socked in with clouds). I did notice SPC introduced the 2% tor probs with the last outlook update. Not much mention to go with it in the discussion, though. Probably as good of a look as we'll see during the doldrum periods of summer. Funny that you mentioned we'd already gotten beyond our severe season and this event kind of sneaks up.

You got one foot in on this one? Or are you going for wedges in MoCo?

NAM nest has the line arriving in the midnight timeframe tomorrow night. That's pretty poor timing. BUT - as I said above, we do tend to get things a bit earlier/faster than expected. Nonetheless, midnight is a pretty late window. Even an hour or two earlier might not be enough to get things done. If the timing on this was like 4-6 hours earlier, with the shear progged things would be really interesting. We'll see what the early morning runs show - and 12z will be useful as well...heck - with that timing even the 18z suite tomorrow will be useful

And FWIW - the long range 0z HRRR is still bullish - bringing two decent UH tracks over the area tomorrow evening.