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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Pre-emptive FFW out already.
  2. Kmlwx
    For the GEFS versus the GEPS - the GEPS would be much more likely to bring us impacts locally (available on TropicalTidbits).
  3. Kmlwx
    18z NAM takes the center of the remnants on a pretty different track compared to the 18z NAM nest. NAM nest is pretty far north and west with the center around our region...12km NAM would seemingly be better for a closer in pass.
  4. Kmlwx
    Decent amount of rain on radar between Stafford and the US-22 area east of Culpeper. Suspect the splotchy radar we've seen the past few days will continue.
  5. Kmlwx
    That was crystal clear in the new normals data
  6. Kmlwx
    No risk area on the D3 SPC outlook. So that means at this range we are absolutely in business
  7. Kmlwx
    The good old fashioned "rubber band theory" - snap back far in the other direction!
  8. Kmlwx
    Certainly not expecting an Ivan-esque outbreak - but there seems to be some decent agreement now that the remnants will post an iso tor threat (as well as some isolated flooding risk as well). What a wet pattern lately!
  9. Kmlwx
    NAM is solid for the Fred remnants.
  10. Kmlwx
    A little further east could bode well for impacts up here I'd think.
  11. Kmlwx
    My questions are - how much of a defined center will remain - and whether it will pass too far to the west for any severe threat.
  12. Kmlwx
    Prior to the last day or so - KLWX was blue like that but all the TDWRs were grey and wouldn't return any data. Can confirm it's not due to a GR update as both machines were on 2.92 before and after it popped up.
  13. Kmlwx
    Either something changed with my data feed or they finally lit up the TDWRs on GR2AE (I use the IA State feed). But they had been greyed out for me until yesterday.
  14. Kmlwx
  15. Kmlwx
    Backlick Run is showing at flood stage now.
  16. Kmlwx
    Raining pretty good here now. May be shorter lived than the stuff @H2O went through. Radar is a bit more splotchy right now.
  17. Kmlwx
    Credit to the folks at LWX. They saw the potential and went with the decision to issue the watch earlier. Certainly seems to be verifying.
  18. Kmlwx
    It's been patchy - but this past week or so has been pretty wet in parts of the area. We just keep tacking rainfall onto the totals. Could be ugly if something of tropical origin comes through with extra moisture in the coming weeks.
  19. Kmlwx
  20. Kmlwx
    Strike anything? We've had two houses get hit with fires in MoCo in the past week (maybe more).
  21. Kmlwx
    Light rain is knocking on my doorstep now - with the heavies under 2 miles. Still looks to be continuing creeping north. LWX will probably need another layer of the FFW as it looks like the rainfall is going to start getting outside of the two existing warnings.
  22. Kmlwx
    Four Mile Run at Alexandria is already at action stage and rising.
  23. Kmlwx
    Stuff is still south of me - but I'm getting some pretty good rumbles of thunder the last 10 minutes or so. Still seems that the activity may be trying to push a bit more north. We'll see if it makes it! Stay safe for you guys in the warnings!
  24. Kmlwx
    Still waiting here in the Silver Spring/Colesville area. Looks like some signs of life around Warrenton (other than the ongoing activity NW of Frederick and out in the mountains)
  25. Kmlwx
    L:atest HRRR actually seems to focus the bulk north of most of the watch - maybe starting around 1-2z.
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