Kmlwx

Some of those tracks (if the low is still decently discernable) could be good for a tropical remnant TOR threat as well. Would be fun to see both the severe and tropical threads be hot at the same time.

12z HRRR sends the complex towards us and then pops new cells almost right over the area. But they don't crank until they are a bit east. I like the general idea of the panels, though. Keeps me interested (for now).

The wet ground is a good point. I'm really not sure what to think about this one - it seems the short range guidance is pretty consistent with having a little tongue of instability (despite the late night timing) match up with the shear. But timing is one of the primary things that likes to kill our chances around here (that and being socked in with clouds). I did notice SPC introduced the 2% tor probs with the last outlook update. Not much mention to go with it in the discussion, though. Probably as good of a look as we'll see during the doldrum periods of summer. Funny that you mentioned we'd already gotten beyond our severe season and this event kind of sneaks up.

You got one foot in on this one? Or are you going for wedges in MoCo?

NAM nest has the line arriving in the midnight timeframe tomorrow night. That's pretty poor timing. BUT - as I said above, we do tend to get things a bit earlier/faster than expected. Nonetheless, midnight is a pretty late window. Even an hour or two earlier might not be enough to get things done. If the timing on this was like 4-6 hours earlier, with the shear progged things would be really interesting. We'll see what the early morning runs show - and 12z will be useful as well...heck - with that timing even the 18z suite tomorrow will be useful

And FWIW - the long range 0z HRRR is still bullish - bringing two decent UH tracks over the area tomorrow evening.

I'm not sure that's a big ask either - things do tend to come through a bit quicker than forecast on our severe events. Not totally buying into tomorrow - many of the CAMs are pretty lackluster...but I'm intrigued at least. IF things can line up I could see somebody getting a legit report out of this event.

DMing you

18z NAM nest is lameeee for tomorrow. The 18z long range HRRR was pretty wild for Central Maryland tomorrow night. The timing isn't the best (overnight hours into Tuesday). If we can speed things up a bit maybe?

Frostburg had an F4 that day apparently.

CIPS for the 36hr mark (on the 12z run coming out now) is fairly bullish. Jun 2, 1998 is on the analogs lol

It's also possible that current complex of storms could lay down some boundaries to focus later activity - again - most likely west of the most populated areas.

HRDPS loves tomorrow at least based on the precip panels.

Next couple of days could be interesting. We'll see. Only thing we've got to track for now.

Just got back from my work department's annual fishing outing. Captain took us wayyyy north and we ended up right around Shell Point in the Bay. Only two striped bass for almost 3 hours. And then a brief flurry of activity once we got some distance from the traffic jam of boats up there. Got our limit.

I'd like to throw all my eggs in this basket!

We need to hope for a ring of fire style ridge. I had some nice rumbles on thunder last night. It's been a pretty "odd" spring IMO. But maybe the combination of still coming out of the COVID funk and the cicadas have thrown me off. Other than a few isolated spots - this has been a pretty low-key severe season.

I'm not seeing much of anything to get super excited about severe weather wise. Other than general thunderstorms it looks like nothing big is on the horizon.

Ugly dewpoints out there today.

Up until Saturday or so - I wasn't having much of an issue with them hitting the car while driving. That changed over the weekend - they are dumb little creatures. They appear to be flying harmlessly over the car and then dive into the windshield - splattering and dying. I'm ready for them to be gone for another 17 years. Car is a mess...

Also remember that is a decent distance from the radar site. So if that is the 0.5 degree tilt, the beam is pretty high at that point.

Just remember that's doppler indicated by the algorithm. Ground truth would show up as a LSR.

Radar definitely has the "training" look to it.

It's muggy out there - gross!

Best part about the HRRR is if you don't like the output you just have to wait another hour!