Kmlwx

That watch box is HUGE

DCAPE very good as well.

For the moment - my dewpoint is a soupy 72. Let's see where that goes into the afternoon.

the NAM nest is depicting some pockets of nearly 5000 SBCAPE today.

And yet another thing to add to my "wall of text" above. A factor I didn't even think about when writing that post... You'd have to assume that more densely populated areas will report larger numbers of severe reports in a comparable event versus a more rural area. Thus...that could bias those percentage maps to show a more "honking" kind of look when it might look much more toned down in less densely populated areas. I'm not aware (but I haven't checked) to see if there's any population adjustment to those maps. So you'd wonder if a "corrected" map of what I posted earlier might look a lot less impressive. ETA: Just look at the relative minimum in the percentages on that map in WV.

Another note on the CIPS stuff for those who aren't familiar with it. The severe stuff on there usually has a tier for "Percent of analogs with at least 1 severe report within X number of km" and then a tier for the same thing but for 5 or more reports. It makes it a quick way to see 1) Are the analogs hinting at severe potential and then 2) Our garden variety severe or something a bit more substantial. If you notice the percentages for 1+ report are lighting up like a Christmas tree, but the 5 or more is pretty lackluster...can be a good indication that the analogs are suggesting a decent shot at a window of severe potential but not anything on the higher end. And of course...the range and such all come into play - we've seen things fizzle from way closer in than 168 hours. I also like to poke around to look at the different domains they have available. Sometimes the analogs from one domain will show a big swath of potential for us, while the domain over the Mid-Atlantic will show nada or very limited potential. And of course...analogs are just that. Rough guides on what happened when certain aspects of the pattern/atmosphere were in a similar state. Doesn't mean it will match up on a subsequent "match" in conditions. AND FURTHER - CIPS uses the NAM for the shorter range stuff, and then GFS for the longer range stuff. There's not (to my knowledge) any factoring in of the Euro, CMC, ICON etc. So you'll get the American models - but if they are vastly wrong it won't mean s**t. During severe season (I guess during winter too) - I usually do a quick glance at CIPS to decide if I want to do a more indepth look at any of the modeling from overnight. If it's pretty dead on CIPS, I'll usually peak on the forums in case there's something that the mets here are watching - and if not...usually safe to go mow the lawn or enjoy the day.

We should of course expect it to fade out with time - or if not that, the timing will suck when game time arrives. There's some signature way out at 312hr too. I feel like I've become the king of over using CIPS - but I mean...it's the "quickest" way to get a sense of what the GFS is showing out in range without doing the analysis yourself That's one of the more robust signatures I think we've seen this year. And having it honk that hard at 168 is pretty eye opening. I think tomorrow afternoon could have some decent storms - Tuesday looks dead right now.

Extended range CIPS has a pretty good signature (especially by this year's standards) out at 168 hours.

Suspect there will be a rogue cell or two. But my hopes are pretty low.

Getting some limited sunshine here now. Could help uncap things.

Pretty gloomy here at the moment...

Will be interesting to see if the HRRR is out to lunch or onto something. 00z NAM will be interesting to see as well to see if it aligns with those thoughts at all.

They made a bit of a comeback today - more audible in the trees in the Silver Spring area. But nowhere near as loud as before. There were a lot of almost dead ones falling out of the trees today too - and then struggling to fly.

The 12z GFS has a really nice looking cluster coming through tomorrow around peak heating. It's tough to evaluate how exactly it goes down with the 3 or 6 hour panels. It seems to be on its own right now - would love to see that trend similarly on the CAMs - most look snoozy for now.

That is the absolute story of our severe chances here in the Mid-Atlantic - I'm obviously still watching...but think it's more of just with a one toe in for right now. Tuesday is wayyyy too far out to do any higher end analysis on at this point. The superstitious part of me is happy we are still only at a marginal for tomorrow - we do better when SPC increases last minute lol

Many of the CAMs look pretty lame for Saturday. We'll have to wait and see what the trends look like as we get close. LWX is still honking about Tuesday's potential.

12z NAM (at range, of course) puts the best parameter space to our north up in PA for Saturday. Again, still early - and will be interesting to see where the target shifts around.

Oh I didn't think you were lol

The 12km NAM does show a decent amount of sunshine for Saturday morning. But the GFS says no. I agree - it's too early. I'm out mostly for now.

Glad the whole idea of them staying strong until early July wasn't the case. They were cool for a bit - and then quickly became annoying.

Peaceful quiet here in the Silver Spring area as well. Thinking the heavy rain the other night may have been enough to really thin the herd - and they were already past peak anyway.

It kind of makes you wonder how a 2021 DC/Baltimore area would handle that.

Having it be on the left side of that envelope would, of course be better for the action-seekers around here. The op Euro track would probably be decent for a little wind and heavy rain, but not so much for any severe weather threat. Honestly, though...ANY tropical threat to us mid-June is a win.

Euro tracks the remnants right through our area next week

The Latest HRRR is seemingly a bit more scattered with the sim reflectivity. We're probably in chips fall mode now.