Kmlwx

The 18z GFS has the mythical up the bay track for a tropical system

It's funny that it's kind of following the corridor where the earlier cluster mostly skipped around. I barely saw any rain from the earlier stuff. Looks like a new cell may be pulsing up on the front end of the dying stuff now.

Loudoun storm has departed the earlier warning. Severe probs are going way down now.

Severe wind probs are increasing again on that Loudoun cell after reducing a bit earlier. It may be cycling back up.

Lightning struck an apartment complex in Germantown. 2nd alarm.

Good wind signature on that Loudoun cell. Thinking it will gust out long before it gets to me in Eastern MoCo - but for now it looks dang good. Storms doing a great job of splitting around me for now.

Radar is pretty widespread. Probably some isolated flooding in places tonight.

Thunder from the storm over the MoCo/Fairfax line already being heard here in Colesville. Another wet evening on tap it seems.

Pity meso discussion is out. 5 percent odds of a watch. I'd keep a closer eye on storm motions and heavy rain threat. Some areas really got walloped last night.

https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov/app/nwd/?region=lower48&aoi=default Specific site I mentioned - https://waterdata.usgs.gov/md/nwis/uv/?site_no=01650500&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060,62615,62620 I somehow didn't realize there was a gauge right near my parent's house. Been there since 1920s!

I am not surprised at all. That report is centered right in an area that had substantial training. NW Branch near Kemp Mill Rd and Randolph Rd went from 3cfs of flow to 706cfs during the height of it. Will be interesting to see where any storms fire and how fast the movement is today. If there's any sort of redveloping/training over the same areas today it could be a lot worse!

Relatively pedestrian here in Colesville, MD. Looks like the biggies went north and well south. Somebody in the MoCo/PG cell will get some good gusts I assume. Turned out to be an active day! Wish I'd been around to track it more - work got in the way.

No severe here IMBY but some nice rumbles of thunder. Hopefully an appetizer for tomorrow.

Just walked out and heard a rumble of thunder - surprised at the radar right now.

This seems like a likely option. (I'm the new you)

Honestly - at least from my weenie eyes, I think a ton of the CAMs are a snoozer for most tomorrow around here. Good parameters on some of them - but a relative min on the reflectivity panels. We'll see how that complex evolves tonight. Sure it'll screw us over.

Long range 18z HRRR seems to contaminate/stabilize our airmass with leftovers from the complex from today.

Uber-high risk and super-PDS watches then. I'm very greedy and needy with weather. Though...I'd trade no more severe for the rest of the calendar year for a single 36 inch snowstorm IMBY this winter.

Meh - high risk or bust - with PDS watches and a continuous bow encompassing the entire region.

Smart money is on us failing tomorrow - but those parameters are beefiest I've seen in a while for us.

Not in terms of setup - but purely the SPC map itself - the day 2 outlook reminds me of Jun 2012

I like how SPC issued a mesoscale discussion that is almost entirely offshore

Radar looks pretty lame at the moment.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2021/md1323.html

@Maestrobjwa - It's important to remember that return periods are averages - they aren't always exact. I agree we do seem to be getting less frequent big snows - but it varies. You could go 2 or 3 years in a row with HECS and then nothing for a decade - just as easily as you could go 6 without one and then just have one. It's not something that fits a mold every time. If science worked that way, we'd probably be staring down the barrel of a Yellowstone eruption (on geologic timescales at least) - as some science indicates it can go off once every 600K years and hasn't in 640K.