Kmlwx

If nothing else I'd love to get the outflow through here tonight. Been getting pretty brutal in my bedroom (removed my window A/C this year because in past summers I was getting wasps and bugs through the non-airtight foam seals).

Would love to get a cool down from an outflow boundary tonight. My bedroom is running 83 or 84 degrees these last few nights. I removed my window A/C as I decided to pick no bugs instead of cool air

The 12z GFS in fantasy land (post 300hrs) dumps a sizeable EML into our area. That would be a game changer. It wasn't on the 0z or 6z, though - so it's probably going poof by next run. And even on this run, it focuses any threat well north and west of us.

The HRDPS is also pretty similar to that 12z NAM nest run. I'm in for tomorrow. There's a decent amount of guidance supporting the idea.

The slight is along and then south and east of the metro areas. Western areas marginal.

Looks like it's going to be a slight risk for tomorrow as of the 1730z outlook. Text/discussion is already out.

Here's a little sample from over on Pivotal - la la lock it up

Heck of a 12z NAM nest run for the close-in metro area - Blows up a huge cell or line segment - good UH swath and sim IR frames

Of course.

If the criteria is a heat index of 105 and it's not breaching 100...why would they issue one? Everyone knows it's hot out - I sort of get why LWX has a tendency to over warn on severe weather - but heat advisories are definitely an area they can afford to be conservative on. They have communicated the heat/humidity well enough - and so has the local media. I'm not saying heat isn't dangerous (especially for sensitive groups) but it's one of those things (unlike certain severe wx situations) you don't need an advisory to tell you about to understand the risk/danger. If the general public needs a big orange advisory to tell them "drink lots of fluids when it's hot out" - they might have an issue.

Late in the 6z GFS run the model tries to send down a bunch of great mid-level lapse rates but they go from north to south well to our west. But something to keep an eye on if the flow is different as we get closer.

June 4, 2008 has been showing up in some of the analogs around the 96hr mark.

Hr 120 is lighting up on the 0z CIPS run. Of note is that it's highlighting the potential threat on multiple domains - gives me some higher confidence it's picking up on something.

Definitely cool to see that some trees have been left almost untouched while others have the top 1/6th or so completely browned at the tips.

Hasn't been an audible song here in multiple days. Dead ones around, though - and a few zombie-like ones trying unsuccessfully to fly near the ground.

The southern end of that northern piece just missed me here in Colesville.

Might as well tear it down now.

Pretty anemic radar now.

And there you go...warned for 70mph.

Another core of strong winds may be forming near Middleburg. That's the next area to watch as it heads east. Already some 55kt+ pixels in there

Some sort of interference. There has been a lot of talk about it during prior precip events going back a year or so (or more).

Gotta say - I'm not a fan of the huge warnings LWX puts out in cases like these. The wind core is likely to be pretty small - and having such a large warning doesn't allow them to localize a small portion of the warning to indicate higher winds. Suppose that core of winds cycles back up in a later scan - with a warning update you'd have to either warn the entire polygon for wind that only a tiny part will see...or keep the warning winds lower. Smaller warnings allow you to more precisely communicate potential.

I feel like we all anecdotally feel this way (myself included). I'm easy of you (north of Silver Spring) and I feel like they do the same thing here.

The trajectory of that wind core looks good for me - but it's still early...any deviation could mean a vastly different outcome this far east. It'll get at least a swath of MoCo. Remains to be seen which parts.

We will have to see whether the outflow runs too far out ahead of these. They are heading into some very juicy/unstable air. But if outflow rushes out, that could dampen severe chances behind it (and increase the heavy rain risk).