Kmlwx

HRDPS loves tomorrow at least based on the precip panels.

Next couple of days could be interesting. We'll see. Only thing we've got to track for now.

Just got back from my work department's annual fishing outing. Captain took us wayyyy north and we ended up right around Shell Point in the Bay. Only two striped bass for almost 3 hours. And then a brief flurry of activity once we got some distance from the traffic jam of boats up there. Got our limit.

I'd like to throw all my eggs in this basket!

We need to hope for a ring of fire style ridge. I had some nice rumbles on thunder last night. It's been a pretty "odd" spring IMO. But maybe the combination of still coming out of the COVID funk and the cicadas have thrown me off. Other than a few isolated spots - this has been a pretty low-key severe season.

I'm not seeing much of anything to get super excited about severe weather wise. Other than general thunderstorms it looks like nothing big is on the horizon.

Ugly dewpoints out there today.

Up until Saturday or so - I wasn't having much of an issue with them hitting the car while driving. That changed over the weekend - they are dumb little creatures. They appear to be flying harmlessly over the car and then dive into the windshield - splattering and dying. I'm ready for them to be gone for another 17 years. Car is a mess...

Also remember that is a decent distance from the radar site. So if that is the 0.5 degree tilt, the beam is pretty high at that point.

Just remember that's doppler indicated by the algorithm. Ground truth would show up as a LSR.

Radar definitely has the "training" look to it.

It's muggy out there - gross!

Best part about the HRRR is if you don't like the output you just have to wait another hour!

I was just playing around with the SPC Severe Event Archive. Something I did not realize is that if you put in MD as the selected state. The September 24th 2001 event (College Park TOR) is the event immediately before April 28th 2002 in the archive. Not terribly impressive since September is a fair timeframe for our last severe event of the season, and April for the first. But to have two such memorable events right next to each other in the archive stood out to me.

I seem to remember a few sporadic severe days in our area over the years that had them really using ominous language for a rather "standard" event.

The UH tracks EJ was talking about are focused down in the favored area for TORs. One of the area's mini tornado alleys.

Let it be known - EJ is predicting wedges over the metro area. SPC just has us in general thunder - so we have that going for us for Friday as well...

I'd be willing to endure 100 degree + 70+ dew weather if it meant we got a legit shot at some area-wide severe to track.

And it's probably wrong too.

That NAM nest run is better for Friday than Thursday

The NAM nest is so bad for tomorrow. It would be a close the blinds day.

Agreed for the most part. I think there's a few ways we can score still - 1) Super high heat, ring of fire ridge type derecho event (June 2012 esque) 2) A high instability day where a lone cell or two can really blow up and cause a stripe of hail/very damaging wind (but large enough to not be considered super isolated) I'm holding out hope that we can get a strong front still at some point with some sort of EML type airmass and having the warm front nearby but north of us. That's very wishful thinking though. We are probably into summer pulse season for the most part.

And naturally, it completely vaporizes even before precip gets to DC for the most part - would not be shocking to see that happen.

There seems to be a lot of junk around to muddy things up earlier in the day. My guess is somewhere gets a severe report or two - but we'll keep waiting for our uber-outbreak.

There's enough for Thursday that still looks semi-ok that I'm still watching. I don't think anybody should be expecting a higher end event, though.