Kmlwx

That's certainly the dominant cell right now. The little cluster north in Loudoun has lost a lot of its punch. This is a pretty classic looking tropical remnants radar depiction for us. There's a lot of junk east of that primary corridor, though - wonder if that may serve to dampen instability a bit. Though - it's not one of those events we need 3K CAPE for. 500-1000 will probably be sufficient. The stuff south of Bowling Green also bears watching as it gets further north.

That corridor is looking better with time.

This is probably the corridor to watch. One thing to note - we won't be looking for towering supercells today. This type of setup could produce little/brief spinnys even from cells that don't look terrible impressive in terms of base reflectivity.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=822&yr=2021

It's what sells clicks and follows though.

Gotta love the all caps and danger red font.

That Baltimore cell even looks a little interesting.

Radar still is pretty tame. We'll see how the next hour or two unfolds. There is a warning NW of us up in PA.

Interesting that it tends to be the HRRR that is lackluster due to the low dews on that model.

The trend is our friend. In all honesty - that member is pretty strong even once it gets into the metro area. It brings the center almost over MBY. Would be an ugly setup for the western side of the bay.

That member is even just a hair west of the Bay. Imagine that.

I'm already semi intrigued by the cell near CHO.

Maybe you can score a tail-end charlie

You're now Eskimo Joe.

There was a tear in the seal it sounded like. Plumber resolved without issue. Although...we can't be for sure until it pours rain again I guess. But there has been no leaking all day. We added a few more water alarms just to be safe. Probably will be a little on edge for the first rainstorm or two after the repairs. Neighbors house we are watching had some plumbing issues as well - what a week!

FFG is probably pretty low in parts of SE MoCo and Fairfax at this point. There's already renewed radar returns near Standardsville, Stafford/S of Manassas. Wouldn't take much to get flooding again. Further, The NAM 12km might miss smaller scale features that could still drop heavy rainfall.

This. There's always someone

Sounds like the plumber will be here semi soon. Hopefully it's just that seal/boot and we can call it a day. Glad I'm not working in the office today.

During all the heavy rain storms this house has been through - never had this happen before. I know the main water line in the front yard was completely replaced due to a leak when I was a youngster. We are crossing our fingers it is not the supply line. I would think if it was pure rain water going through the ground it would be more discolored than it is. I don't think it's even brown...

It looks like that point where it enters that reddish wall in the picture is PVC with a boot sort of thing before it goes over to the copper style piping shown in the picture. THe leak has finally slowed to just an occasional drip - telling me it's definitely rain related. We are still waiting for the plumber though. What a night - hoping the rain stays away until this is fixed. Thanking past-me for insisting on sticking a few battery operated water alarms down there.

Replying here even though it's banter (I posted an image over in there as well). I managed to get a few hours of shut eye. Good news is the leak pretty much stopped/slowed now that the rain has been gone for a while. One of the neighbors was here just now and said it seemed like it might just be where the service line meets the internal piping. There's an area that looks like PVC style piping where it comes into the basement and then it goes back over to copper - he thinks the "boot" might just be loose. We are still waiting for the plumber - hopefully we can avoid anything new until he gets here. I'm wishing the rain away for now. A water alarm saved our butts...I heard it going off and we managed to scramble to figure out the cause.

Taken last night -

Peaked just above flood stage and is now back down into action stage. ETA: Looks like highest crest since 12/2018. Provisional data is around 9.31ft crest.

Well - main water line is leaking into basement, tree is down blocking entire road. Glad this latest batch mostly missed MBY. CLAM2 (Colesville stream gauge) hit flood stage.