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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Having the TDWRs is so nice in these cases. Though it often seems the TDCA and TADW have trouble seeing up my way in terms of velocity.
  2. Kmlwx
    Something may be trying to organize right along the river crossing into DC. Suspicious on velocity.
  3. Kmlwx
    About as high as I've seen that CIMSS prob severe product go in our area. This supercell is outlined with 92% wind 39% tor probs.
  4. Kmlwx
    Some of the higher tilts velocity scans are showing nice rotation a bit off the deck SW of Falls Church. Wow.
  5. Kmlwx
    The TOR probs on the CIMSS product @Eskimo Joe - shared a while back are really ticking up on this complex. It looks legit... For those that don't have it - here is the placefile (can be used in GR) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE
  6. Kmlwx
    I set my alarm for 2:15 - probably could have snuck another hour or so in at least IMBY. Probably wise to go back to sleep after this stuff passes. Southern end of that cluster is worth watching too.
  7. Kmlwx
    Got to give the HRRR credit here...it consistently (for many runs in a row) showed a cell like this cutting through the area in this timeframe.
  8. Kmlwx
    Area near Centreville may be trying to cycle up again. It's got a severe thunderstorm warning on it now. Worth watching.
  9. Kmlwx
    I'm not high risk - but it depends on the model output you are referring to. Some maps are 6hr precip, some are 24hr etc. Some are also simply "total precip" If it was total precip - then certainly yes any rainfall already down would count.
  10. Kmlwx
    The last few runs have seemingly brought some sort of cellular/cluster activity over DC or nearby areas. Some of the runs have shown a decent UH track as well. It honestly wouldn't surprise me...tropical stuff can do weird off-hours stuff for us. Not sure it'd be enough for a tornado watch...but if we do get one - it could be one of those rare days where we have 2+ tornado watches in a single day.
  11. Kmlwx
    HRRR definitely seems to indicate there could be a predawn threat as well
  12. Kmlwx
    10% TOR
  13. Kmlwx
    They did it!
  14. Kmlwx
    Eh - with the water "incidents" you and I have both had recently...thinking we can pass on the rain if it means having some exciting radar watching for spinnys. Even on the dry days our lawn has been like a saturated sponge when you walk on it.
  15. Kmlwx
    I'm definitely a little more "pumped" than I was for our last tropical event. Seems we are in a better position for some activity.
  16. Kmlwx
    For giggle - This is the 18z NAM (12km) for Wednesday PM.
  17. Kmlwx
    And this is all assuming there's even a storm that resembles that in 10 days
  18. Kmlwx
    I'm not him...but yeah - that's a pretty vigorous trough as depicted. But it's also 240 hours out. So....
  19. Kmlwx
    Worst wind just missed me. Traffic cams really shaking around on US 29 in Silver Spring
  20. Kmlwx
    Looking better each scan it seems. Looks to head in my general direction. Kensington to White Oak look to be pummeled
  21. Kmlwx
    Wind core becoming apparent on most of the TDWRs and LWX radar near Kensington/Garrett Park
  22. Kmlwx
    Except it'll probably cycle 5+ times before we actually get to actual fall. We'll be lucky to see "fall" before Halloween :'(
  23. Kmlwx
    Just saw a tweet about a major outbreak of lightning (and positive strokes) near the center. Could be about to take off.
  24. Kmlwx
    Gotta wonder if any remnants for us could take an Ivan-esque approach to our region (not including the odd loop Ivan did back to the Gulf, of course).
  25. Kmlwx
    Some nice velocity scans on the DC cell(s) from the TDCA radar.
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