Kmlwx

16z HRRR buys into the 2nd line later being the dominant one. But it's mainly for I-70 and north.

Though at this moment I'd tend to agree with the doo doo assessment. We'll see how things play out for the remainder of the afternoon. I see a warning up in PA now.

And...cells won't look particularly beefy in a setup like this. Even the stuff in PW and Loudoun right now could produce even if reflectivity doesn't look like textbook severe.

TDCA has a nice tiny cell just south of Alexandria. I know models yesterday were focusing any 2nd line on the northern parts of the area.

I know there was some work done on that area of piping last year - but not sure if it was that exact part where the line comes into the house. It may have been pretty darn old. The amount of water that was coming in was definitely more than a little. I'm pretty sure had we not had the water alarms we'd have woken up in the morning to a decent amount of flooding in the basement. We haven't had anything like the rain from that night since then - but a few downpours and there's been zero leaking. We've got a dehumidifier running now to dry things out. Added two more water alarms to other parts of the basement. For $11 and a 9V battery - it's so worth it. House is near our street (up on a hill though) - but it's a dead end street. Probably fewer than 10 cars a day drive on it.

Little tropical shower here in Colesville, MD now.

That's certainly the dominant cell right now. The little cluster north in Loudoun has lost a lot of its punch. This is a pretty classic looking tropical remnants radar depiction for us. There's a lot of junk east of that primary corridor, though - wonder if that may serve to dampen instability a bit. Though - it's not one of those events we need 3K CAPE for. 500-1000 will probably be sufficient. The stuff south of Bowling Green also bears watching as it gets further north.

That corridor is looking better with time.

This is probably the corridor to watch. One thing to note - we won't be looking for towering supercells today. This type of setup could produce little/brief spinnys even from cells that don't look terrible impressive in terms of base reflectivity.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=822&yr=2021

It's what sells clicks and follows though.

Gotta love the all caps and danger red font.

That Baltimore cell even looks a little interesting.

Radar still is pretty tame. We'll see how the next hour or two unfolds. There is a warning NW of us up in PA.

Interesting that it tends to be the HRRR that is lackluster due to the low dews on that model.

The trend is our friend. In all honesty - that member is pretty strong even once it gets into the metro area. It brings the center almost over MBY. Would be an ugly setup for the western side of the bay.

That member is even just a hair west of the Bay. Imagine that.

I'm already semi intrigued by the cell near CHO.

Maybe you can score a tail-end charlie

You're now Eskimo Joe.

There was a tear in the seal it sounded like. Plumber resolved without issue. Although...we can't be for sure until it pours rain again I guess. But there has been no leaking all day. We added a few more water alarms just to be safe. Probably will be a little on edge for the first rainstorm or two after the repairs. Neighbors house we are watching had some plumbing issues as well - what a week!

FFG is probably pretty low in parts of SE MoCo and Fairfax at this point. There's already renewed radar returns near Standardsville, Stafford/S of Manassas. Wouldn't take much to get flooding again. Further, The NAM 12km might miss smaller scale features that could still drop heavy rainfall.

This. There's always someone

Sounds like the plumber will be here semi soon. Hopefully it's just that seal/boot and we can call it a day. Glad I'm not working in the office today.