Kmlwx

Lots of LSRs showing up. This will be a hefty report/ground truth day.

LWX has a big gap between expiration and issuing the new warning.

Radar certainly has that training look to it - thinking first round has the severe stuff and then a lot of hefty rainfall with the stuff forming behind. Going to be a rocky evening for many.

Some VERY nice claps of thunder already in Colesville, MD

Cell in Montgomery is looking better and better. Hail marker increasing on it - and looking at the cell in GR2AE it is looking intense.

Revising this now - seeing some good wind above the surface on velocity. Looking better with each scan.

Not terribly impressed with the warned storm so far. But it's also very close to the radar site.

I've used it! I actually have used Cyonara 9.7 for years as well. Seems to work well against the spiders and crawling - but the wasps always find a way through. They do die off within a day or so of entering - but a day is a while to have a wasp flying around.

Down to 77.5 here!

@coolio - replying over here. I've heard GREAT things about mini splits (ductless). But from what I've heard they can be even more expensive than that. Haven't done a ton of research, though. Reduct work sounds like such a pain. This house was built in the 60s and it was sort of the "fixer-upper" of the neighborhood. There is like a single vent that gets any air movement on the top floor (and it's a bathroom!).

They will probably be sub-severe, though. Boundary just went through here.

One of the best defined outflow boundaries I've seen on radar this year.

It was a long time coming. I've done some research and it just sounds like even with the best designed window units they just can't seal 100%. Just so happens that I get wasps on the front of the house that love to find ways in. Main A/C cools the lower floors fine, but has a ton of trouble getting to the upper floors. (banter, I Know). ZERO wasps or even ants so far this year... Fans, fans and more fans have been working OK so far. But the past few days have ben brutal getting to sleep. Based on radar I'm cautiously optimistic. @high risk - over in the severe thread says they'll likely lose their punch as they come east. A quick shower or storm would do wonders.

If nothing else I'd love to get the outflow through here tonight. Been getting pretty brutal in my bedroom (removed my window A/C this year because in past summers I was getting wasps and bugs through the non-airtight foam seals).

Would love to get a cool down from an outflow boundary tonight. My bedroom is running 83 or 84 degrees these last few nights. I removed my window A/C as I decided to pick no bugs instead of cool air

The 12z GFS in fantasy land (post 300hrs) dumps a sizeable EML into our area. That would be a game changer. It wasn't on the 0z or 6z, though - so it's probably going poof by next run. And even on this run, it focuses any threat well north and west of us.

The HRDPS is also pretty similar to that 12z NAM nest run. I'm in for tomorrow. There's a decent amount of guidance supporting the idea.

The slight is along and then south and east of the metro areas. Western areas marginal.

Looks like it's going to be a slight risk for tomorrow as of the 1730z outlook. Text/discussion is already out.

Here's a little sample from over on Pivotal - la la lock it up

Heck of a 12z NAM nest run for the close-in metro area - Blows up a huge cell or line segment - good UH swath and sim IR frames

Of course.

If the criteria is a heat index of 105 and it's not breaching 100...why would they issue one? Everyone knows it's hot out - I sort of get why LWX has a tendency to over warn on severe weather - but heat advisories are definitely an area they can afford to be conservative on. They have communicated the heat/humidity well enough - and so has the local media. I'm not saying heat isn't dangerous (especially for sensitive groups) but it's one of those things (unlike certain severe wx situations) you don't need an advisory to tell you about to understand the risk/danger. If the general public needs a big orange advisory to tell them "drink lots of fluids when it's hot out" - they might have an issue.

Late in the 6z GFS run the model tries to send down a bunch of great mid-level lapse rates but they go from north to south well to our west. But something to keep an eye on if the flow is different as we get closer.

June 4, 2008 has been showing up in some of the analogs around the 96hr mark.