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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    For all the crap people give the HRRR - it really did nail this supercell in terms of time of day AND location for the most part. Whether it was a blind squirrel finding a nut or a legit win who knows.
  2. Kmlwx
    It's continued to look pretty decent. However, LWX hasn't warned it at all. The rotation at times has been pretty broad and not "tight" - we'll see
  3. Kmlwx
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1667.html
  4. Kmlwx
    Radar estimates somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5-2.3 inches fell during that storm IMBY. That's almost as much as some of the models had for me for the entire even - just goes to show you that while global and even mesoscale model output is a good guide - individual cells/clusters can boom or bust your total pretty easily. Add in whatever comes later today (and any showery stuff in between) and we could easily get some beefy rain totals even though guidance had the worst flood threat NW.
  5. Kmlwx
    We've seen LWX warn similar storms. If it keeps up another scan or two I bet it'll get tor warned. Looks decent on the TDWRs AND the KLWX radars.
  6. Kmlwx
    Area near Glenarden, MD showing signs of cycling up. We'll see if it can sustain this time. That may warrant a TOR in short order if it continues.
  7. Kmlwx
    Having the TDWRs is so nice in these cases. Though it often seems the TDCA and TADW have trouble seeing up my way in terms of velocity.
  8. Kmlwx
    Something may be trying to organize right along the river crossing into DC. Suspicious on velocity.
  9. Kmlwx
    About as high as I've seen that CIMSS prob severe product go in our area. This supercell is outlined with 92% wind 39% tor probs.
  10. Kmlwx
    Some of the higher tilts velocity scans are showing nice rotation a bit off the deck SW of Falls Church. Wow.
  11. Kmlwx
    The TOR probs on the CIMSS product @Eskimo Joe - shared a while back are really ticking up on this complex. It looks legit... For those that don't have it - here is the placefile (can be used in GR) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE
  12. Kmlwx
    I set my alarm for 2:15 - probably could have snuck another hour or so in at least IMBY. Probably wise to go back to sleep after this stuff passes. Southern end of that cluster is worth watching too.
  13. Kmlwx
    Got to give the HRRR credit here...it consistently (for many runs in a row) showed a cell like this cutting through the area in this timeframe.
  14. Kmlwx
    Area near Centreville may be trying to cycle up again. It's got a severe thunderstorm warning on it now. Worth watching.
  15. Kmlwx
    I'm not high risk - but it depends on the model output you are referring to. Some maps are 6hr precip, some are 24hr etc. Some are also simply "total precip" If it was total precip - then certainly yes any rainfall already down would count.
  16. Kmlwx
    The last few runs have seemingly brought some sort of cellular/cluster activity over DC or nearby areas. Some of the runs have shown a decent UH track as well. It honestly wouldn't surprise me...tropical stuff can do weird off-hours stuff for us. Not sure it'd be enough for a tornado watch...but if we do get one - it could be one of those rare days where we have 2+ tornado watches in a single day.
  17. Kmlwx
    HRRR definitely seems to indicate there could be a predawn threat as well
  18. Kmlwx
    10% TOR
  19. Kmlwx
    They did it!
  20. Kmlwx
    Eh - with the water "incidents" you and I have both had recently...thinking we can pass on the rain if it means having some exciting radar watching for spinnys. Even on the dry days our lawn has been like a saturated sponge when you walk on it.
  21. Kmlwx
    I'm definitely a little more "pumped" than I was for our last tropical event. Seems we are in a better position for some activity.
  22. Kmlwx
    For giggle - This is the 18z NAM (12km) for Wednesday PM.
  23. Kmlwx
    And this is all assuming there's even a storm that resembles that in 10 days
  24. Kmlwx
    I'm not him...but yeah - that's a pretty vigorous trough as depicted. But it's also 240 hours out. So....
  25. Kmlwx
    Worst wind just missed me. Traffic cams really shaking around on US 29 in Silver Spring
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