Kmlwx

It does seem there will be a lull (no backbuilding at the moment) behind this stuff and ahead of the next wave to the south (if that stuff survives up here, that is)

For archival sake -

What a deluge out there - NWS posted a flash flood warning now. Well warranted if this keeps up. I'm keeping an eye on the USGS gauge on NW Branch near Kemp Mill Rd. EDIT: The gauge hasn't updated since 0245z (about an hour ago at this point). It does generally lag a bit - but normally only by 30-45 mins. Suspect that the next update will show rising water at this point. Link below for both of you as it should be fairly representative for any creeks in our area. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/md/nwis/uv/?site_no=01650500&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060,62615,62620 https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph_to_xml.php?gage=clam2&output=tabular

Dumping here in Colesville, MD. Power is out as well.

Fred is having a big blowup of convection right now...

Not surprised, honestly. Given how quickly they got drenched the other night...not going to take much to get those torrents of water rising again. There's been some really neat radar depictions the past week or two as well.

Pre-emptive FFW out already.

For the GEFS versus the GEPS - the GEPS would be much more likely to bring us impacts locally (available on TropicalTidbits).

18z NAM takes the center of the remnants on a pretty different track compared to the 18z NAM nest. NAM nest is pretty far north and west with the center around our region...12km NAM would seemingly be better for a closer in pass.

Decent amount of rain on radar between Stafford and the US-22 area east of Culpeper. Suspect the splotchy radar we've seen the past few days will continue.

That was crystal clear in the new normals data

No risk area on the D3 SPC outlook. So that means at this range we are absolutely in business

The good old fashioned "rubber band theory" - snap back far in the other direction!

Certainly not expecting an Ivan-esque outbreak - but there seems to be some decent agreement now that the remnants will post an iso tor threat (as well as some isolated flooding risk as well). What a wet pattern lately!

NAM is solid for the Fred remnants.

A little further east could bode well for impacts up here I'd think.

My questions are - how much of a defined center will remain - and whether it will pass too far to the west for any severe threat.

Prior to the last day or so - KLWX was blue like that but all the TDWRs were grey and wouldn't return any data. Can confirm it's not due to a GR update as both machines were on 2.92 before and after it popped up.

Either something changed with my data feed or they finally lit up the TDWRs on GR2AE (I use the IA State feed). But they had been greyed out for me until yesterday.

Backlick Run is showing at flood stage now.

Raining pretty good here now. May be shorter lived than the stuff @H2O went through. Radar is a bit more splotchy right now.

Credit to the folks at LWX. They saw the potential and went with the decision to issue the watch earlier. Certainly seems to be verifying.

It's been patchy - but this past week or so has been pretty wet in parts of the area. We just keep tacking rainfall onto the totals. Could be ugly if something of tropical origin comes through with extra moisture in the coming weeks.