Kmlwx

All I'm hearing is "That activity is going to lay down some nice boundaries and we are going full on derecho mode"

12z HRRR is rolling in and it likes Fairfax County and then the Bay and Eastern Shore. Pretty much meh in all other areas. I'm tempted to say the fat lady is singing for places from Loudoun/Frederick, MD and west. Right now I'd probably draw a polygon for best chances running from Baltimore proper WSW back to Gaithersburg, SSW to Fairfax and then perhaps down to EZF and then including everything south and east of that line.

I think even my area (just north of DC/Silver Spring in Eastern MoCo may even look okay for right now. I might be right on the edge of the better stuff - but somebody will probably get a cool surprise today. Hail isn't one of the things we normally do well - there's a select few cases in the records of days when hail is an elevated threat even over wind gusts. Going to be an afternoon of radar watching. Have zero desire to drive through hail with my semi new car - but had plans to head to Annapolis this evening.

10z and 11z HRRR looked decent. Again, best chances south and east - but looked a little better perhaps for DC proper. But yeah - that 6z NAM nest run was pretty meh. We'll see.

Yep - was going to say this as well. HRRR and NAM nest have been pretty consistent with the threat being south and east. The Bay area could be positioned nicely.

Yep - just looks rainy to me now.

Wonderfully pink.

18z NAM nest was pretty aggressive with a severe threat in the metro corridor for Thur afternoon. Looks like a small window - but it's definitely there.

We always seem to end up getting a squally threat - or some sort of high shear/low CAPE event later in Oct/Nov as well. Something with a very strong cold front that has a thin tongue of 50-60 dews ahead of it. But yeah - perhaps the last of the warm season style severe potential.

Not to mention the plentiful other factors like how much sunshine we get, lapse rates - so many ways to fail around here. Some of it is probably anecdotal as you mention. I think for a day like the June 2012 derecho - you're absolutely right - that HOT, stagnant airmass fueled the maintenance of the storms as they plowed east.

Radar is pretty empty other than the stuff approaching the Northern Neck. Seems the guidance had stuff kind of later than usual for us (0-2z). May be waiting for an MCD for a while.

Would think it's not just about wind speed - but more important wind direction. Consider a breezy south wind bringing in humid/unstable air with a warm front passage. That would be an indicator of potentially higher severe potential versus a stiff NE breeze bringing in a wedge in the cool season or spring/fall.

Waking up and heading to work tomorrow with mid 50s dewpoints is going to be amazingly refreshing. Looking at the mid to long range - it looks like the sustained weeks on weeks of 70s dews may be done. Sure...they'll surge back but for shorter periods. Here's to hoping the fall dewpoint regime is arriving or here to stay. Right on time for meteorological fall.

Why would that be the secretary's fault even if it was for COVID...? Not her choice. My mom was an attendance secretary in MCPS for years and would get calls like "WELL WHEN IS THE SNOW STARTING?" "HOW DARE YOU CLOSE I'M INCONVENIENCED" - it was the most unpleasant part of her job. Thankfully she's retired now. Feels like that's similar to getting pissed off at the hostess for the chef poisoning your food...

Probably have a slightly elevated threat in spots where there's localized wind direction enhancement (near the Potomac, the Bay, etc).

TOR watch remains for MoCo and places east. Would seem to indicate the threat is still there for spinnys for now.

Really not sure what to think about later. Looks pretty lame - but with perhaps some rejuvenating sun between rounds, some of those storms could be gusty.

There could be some clearing in the wake of the tornadic activity earlier based on satellite. The stuff to the west and southwest definitely bears watching for now.

Nothing really stands out on radar for the moment. The most "interesting" thing locally is that cell near TADW. Stuff to the west just looks like rain for now. We'll see how the next couple hours plays out. Bogged down with listening to AACoFD feeds right now. They are BUSY.

Surprisingly - SPC keeps the ENH and 10% tor for the same area. Mentions a confluence band potentially providing more severe potential.

Cell near Mount Vernon needs watching.

AA Co Fire is reporting roofs off, poles down etc. High tension lines also down.

AACo dispatch just dispatched something sounding like a building collapse assignment. But then the collapse unit was put in service. Regardless - sounds like significant damage.

Debris from Annapolis storm was lofted to 4700m per Tony Lyza on Twitter. Holy crap.

By our area's standards - that may have been a fairly long track tornado. The couplet is exiting the Annapolis proper area now. Ground truth from there is going to be interesting. Hope everyone is okay.