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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Got to give the HRRR credit here...it consistently (for many runs in a row) showed a cell like this cutting through the area in this timeframe.
  2. Kmlwx
    Area near Centreville may be trying to cycle up again. It's got a severe thunderstorm warning on it now. Worth watching.
  3. Kmlwx
    I'm not high risk - but it depends on the model output you are referring to. Some maps are 6hr precip, some are 24hr etc. Some are also simply "total precip" If it was total precip - then certainly yes any rainfall already down would count.
  4. Kmlwx
    The last few runs have seemingly brought some sort of cellular/cluster activity over DC or nearby areas. Some of the runs have shown a decent UH track as well. It honestly wouldn't surprise me...tropical stuff can do weird off-hours stuff for us. Not sure it'd be enough for a tornado watch...but if we do get one - it could be one of those rare days where we have 2+ tornado watches in a single day.
  5. Kmlwx
    HRRR definitely seems to indicate there could be a predawn threat as well
  6. Kmlwx
    10% TOR
  7. Kmlwx
    They did it!
  8. Kmlwx
    Eh - with the water "incidents" you and I have both had recently...thinking we can pass on the rain if it means having some exciting radar watching for spinnys. Even on the dry days our lawn has been like a saturated sponge when you walk on it.
  9. Kmlwx
    I'm definitely a little more "pumped" than I was for our last tropical event. Seems we are in a better position for some activity.
  10. Kmlwx
    For giggle - This is the 18z NAM (12km) for Wednesday PM.
  11. Kmlwx
    And this is all assuming there's even a storm that resembles that in 10 days
  12. Kmlwx
    I'm not him...but yeah - that's a pretty vigorous trough as depicted. But it's also 240 hours out. So....
  13. Kmlwx
    Worst wind just missed me. Traffic cams really shaking around on US 29 in Silver Spring
  14. Kmlwx
    Looking better each scan it seems. Looks to head in my general direction. Kensington to White Oak look to be pummeled
  15. Kmlwx
    Wind core becoming apparent on most of the TDWRs and LWX radar near Kensington/Garrett Park
  16. Kmlwx
    Except it'll probably cycle 5+ times before we actually get to actual fall. We'll be lucky to see "fall" before Halloween :'(
  17. Kmlwx
    Just saw a tweet about a major outbreak of lightning (and positive strokes) near the center. Could be about to take off.
  18. Kmlwx
    Gotta wonder if any remnants for us could take an Ivan-esque approach to our region (not including the odd loop Ivan did back to the Gulf, of course).
  19. Kmlwx
    Some nice velocity scans on the DC cell(s) from the TDCA radar.
  20. Kmlwx
    Yep - cannot wait for the first strong cold front to break the back of summer. I know late August is still pretty early...just hoping it's not one of those years where we wait until early October to truly knock down the temps. I'm sure a big front will come through in September - but we can rebound behind those if the return flow and H5 pattern is "right"
  21. Kmlwx
    September 2097
  22. Kmlwx
    Definitely one of those events where I remember exactly (with stunning detail) what I was doing when it hit. Derecho in 2012 was another one - as is June 4, 2008.
  23. Kmlwx
    I heard on WTOP the other day that for 100% completion it could be "another 10 years"
  24. Kmlwx
    This thread is my signature claim to fame.
  25. Kmlwx
    It's kind of sad that we could get a day or two relief even during peak heat back in July - but here we are in August with just endless soup air.
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