Kmlwx

46.2 according to my shaky La Crosse thermometer (not a full station). This is in Colesville, MD

Received. Thank you!

Channeling your inner @ravensrule

It's probably a combination of factors. Consider that 10 years ago everyone was high on the miracle of 2009-2010. Snow weenie hearts were replenished and fresh and moods were higher overall. I think the widespread dissemination of weather models and data is helping AND hurting. Of course, I'll never argue to restrict data from the public - but social media has allowed people who have no business throwing their two cents in the ability to spread their opinions and "analyses" far and wide with very little effort. The issue then becomes that anybody who has a mild/armchair interest in weather can very quickly become "the go-to person" in their friend group/family group. In the 2000s - to get some credibility - you had to do so without the use of easy-to-access snow maps etc - you actually had to have a brain. Twitter and Facebook have done a lot of harm to this field. Places like TT, WeatherBell, Pivotal etc now make it so easy for any average Joe to go around flaunting their snow maps and pretending to be somebody worth listening to. It's probably incredible frustrating for the people with actual weather knowledge to have to scream at the top of their lungs to try (unsuccessfully) to drown out the wannabe people. I encourage anybody who is interested to go into STEM...but weenie proliferation is a real thing - and it doesn't help the field.

That's not how forecasting really works. You can't say "In this pattern we expect 10 inches of snow in the next 4 weeks" - the exact same/similar pattern can yield vastly different results. As PSU has said - a lot is luck. Then add in chaos as well. Nobody can guarantee anything - not even "one storm" based on longwave H5 patterns. Just not how it works. All we can say is "X pattern looks good going into the next 2-4 weeks" - beyond that it's pretty much the unknown. ETA: You seem to want to apply short-term forecasting abilities to long term patterns. There's not some metric that says "H5 pattern = X, therefore Snow > 6 inches in region" - BIGGEST word that will derail you in your post was "EXPECT" - you should never "expect" any snow

TDWRs have something interesting near Bowie. I'm in Annapolis tonight.

We always seem to manage some sneaky gusty shower event in November or December. I just want something other than grey, boring skies to track.

A few flurries here in Colesville, MD.

That's also only out to D10. There are indications that the warmer pattern may be in place until late month. Would not expect anything prior to the end of that chart - and more likely even a bit longer.

Welcome to the watch list

Doesn't really look like the bird/insect stuff we are used to. Is there a fire/explosion out that way? That was weird.

Get out.

Door is open for some gusty showers this weekend. If it can't snow - let's go for severe!

Weather weenies sure know how to beat a dead horse

Let's perhaps get through the Torchember period and then we can look at setting something up if psu is back to not being as busy. There's no rush.

Family comes first. Doubt this will be enough to get a Zoom call going, anyway - especially since we haven't had our "get to know each other" call for the group. I'm guessing less folks would have been available on a weeknight as well. Hope the kid has a speedy recovery!

"When will they hoist warnings?" "I'm one county away from a warning...weather knows county boundaries"

We should have a contest for best virtual Zoom background

More likely is that we'll all have thrown our computers into the streets and the subforum will be a raging dumpster fire with Yoda wandering aimlessly around vacant streets and Ji rocking back and forth in the fetal position in a dark alley.

psu has been busy I believe. I was on the initial list of folks who sent emails to him - as long as you sent to the right address all should be well.

I mostly figured as much - my main point being is that you're not on here posting about how we are F'd because of La Nina and omg no snow - omg it can't snow anymore. You're just quietly resigned to it. Every last one of us is still peeking at the models every day even if we don't admit it

This is true on literally every internet website. It's the web - there's going to be more abrasive people and less abrasive people. Don't let things get to you so much and it will get way more tolerable. If you feel like you need to reply to everything - you're doing something wrong. Gotta take a breath and just let the world unfold. It'll be okay for all of us.

Let's just be honest - it could be July and it could be like this with the right combination of users and posts.

OT - but just a few friendly tips. I generally enjoy you as a poster - but you've gotta just chill a bit. There's a big difference between being in the crowd of "assuming it'll be a lower end winter - and being happily surprised if anything nice happens" and being an absolute deb at every opportunity. @mappy - just quietly sort of makes one comment and it's more of a "let's see what happens and it is what it is" Your posts tend to come across as much more of a "omg it really won't snow ever - we just need to throw in the towel because it's over and won't ever snow this winter" I know those aren't your exact words - and I know you're trying to learn about meteorology (as we all are from the pros on here) - but I'd lean towards the mappy approach. You can definitely absorb what the pros are teaching us without needing to necessarily have a response. I've seen you post questions like "well there has to be an explanation as to why it doesn't snow anymore" and similar. There's rarely a single, catch-all answer to things in this field and it sometimes feels like you're assuming it's all down to one thing. Post counts aren't everything. I think we all have been through phases of panic over no snow and angst. I get it. Moderation is the key. I was really, really similar to you back in the EasternUSWX days. Just remember that the weather is going to do whatever the weather is going to do. As much as we joke about things like the snow blower curse, or cursing things with radio shows - there's so much in this field that is still unknown. It is what it is.