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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Aw shucks - I'm not THAT smart with this stuff. Most of my strength is anecdotal past stuff. I defer to the red taggers mostly, though. I'm closer to @yoda's copy and pasting than I am to the @high risk analysis. As much as I like snow - and hate 85+ degree weather, I do prefer spring/summer on the forums to winter. Much more of a cordial environment. Seems us severe weenies are way more able to accept that we just don't go big on severe very often versus the winter weenies who are seemingly "entitled to" all winter storms
  2. Kmlwx
    I was looking mainly at the 3z to 6z period on Thur night-Fri AM.
  3. Kmlwx
    The American models seem to be a bit more gung-ho on the wind threat. But really it's only a difference of 5-10mph. American models would (except the long range HRRR) get us close to High Wind Warning criteria at least in isolated spots. But seems like Wind Advisory criteria is a good bet for a pretty wide swath of the area. There were some 60mph pockets of gusts on the GFS and NAM - but most guidance seems to be in the 45-50mph range.
  4. Kmlwx
    I think local media uses it with a decent amount of regularity as well. Maybe in NWS discussions as well. Though not in the zones.
  5. Kmlwx
    Measuring snow on PAVED surfaces is about as wrong as it gets. Paved surfaces retain heat. I don't think I've ever seen snowfall qualified in an official measurement as "slushy" or any other descriptor.
  6. Kmlwx
    He didn't ask for flash flooding
  7. Kmlwx
    Looks like most guidance is 45-55mph gusts. Euro oddly enough seems to be on the lower side of the range.
  8. Kmlwx
    the 6z NAM has 80-90kt winds at 850mb overnight Thur into Fri. Imagine having something like that in the warm season with beefy CAPE. It even places a little pocket of 1-2 supercell compositive paramter in the area - but at 12z Fri AM. Timing sucks.
  9. Kmlwx
    Probably this knowing our luck -
  10. Kmlwx
    I'm in denial every spring!
  11. Kmlwx
    As shown...the timing sucks in terms of the diurnal cycle on the 6z GFS. But timing I feel is less important in these cool season events since we can still advect in warm temps even at night. It's going to be a marginal CAPE environment no matter how you look at it (even during the day). GFS still gets 850mb winds into the 70-80kt range for a time Thur PM into Fri.
  12. Kmlwx
    Woohoo - pencil thin lines of gusty showers
  13. Kmlwx
    Some of the CFS and CanSIPS stuff seem to have a bit of a ring of fire style pattern possible in the warm season.
  14. Kmlwx
    Might as well...
  15. Kmlwx
    Mid February is usually when the early peeks at severe can sometimes start showing up. Judging by the models and the long range thread, looks like maybe a marginal threat for Thur night? General severe discussion, remembering past events, and all that usual stuff that goes in here each year can go in here again. Hopefully we get some good thunderstorms this spring and summer. Looking forward to plenty of copy and pasting from @yoda, downer posts from @Eskimo Joe, great analysis by @high risk, and plenty of sun obs that turn into nothing. Giddy up! And for humor sake - see below
  16. Kmlwx
    This is around when I make the severe thread every year
  17. Kmlwx
    It's all the angles that are murdering us. F angles. The cold air angle, the sun angle - we can't catch a break.
  18. Kmlwx
    The blazing sun angle will kill this threat before it even starts
  19. Kmlwx
    Normally I'd say maybe it's the increased resolution - but the HRRR being in line with the other guidance tells me maybe the 3km NAM is smoking something.
  20. Kmlwx
    You should switch to doing pbp of the 250mb level without telling anyone. Would be some confused weenies in here.
  21. Kmlwx
    @Maestrobjwa - Definitely want to echo what others have said. You do seem to honestly want to work on it - and that's great!. But if weather makes you legitimately want to throw things in anger it might be crossing from being a hobby to being something unhealthy. I don't mean to sound funny - but what @Ji has sort of turned into his "thing" on the board - you genuinely seem to be experiencing for real on your side. Of course everyone has different interests/hobbies etc - but I've picked up a bunch of new stuff to occupy time between various weather events. It makes things way more tolerable. Anything from fossil hunting at Calvert Cliffs to getting a board game group together. Just things to bridge the gap. Get yourself into astronomy events or something - that way things like the Perseids meteor showers or cool eclipse events get you excited as well. Weather as a hobby should be fun - sure there's some disappointment built in - but it's like seeing your favorite team lose in playoffs. It stings and you keep moving to the next hobby or season. I hope snow/weather can go from being a stressful hobby for you to being one that you enjoy more wholly.
  22. Kmlwx
    It almost sounds like some rain mixed in here in Colesville. BUT it's 31.8. Thinking it may just be water dripping off of trees and branches. Definitely not as pretty as the snow earlier in this lighter stuff.
  23. Kmlwx
    Radar shows that deathband cycling up again. Down to 33.5 here now. Could start to see accumulation soon!
  24. Kmlwx
    Deathbanded.
  25. Kmlwx
    Steady light snow here now in Colesville, MD. Temp right around 35.
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