Kmlwx

38ish degrees here now.

Absolutely agree. And I think you worded that much better than I did (no surprise there). There is zero doubt in my mind that there's a new "normal" and we'll have to get used to it. And we may not even be done adjusting the goalposts either. That said - I think @Maestrobjwa - (no offense intended) does tend to have pretty high expectations and substantial agony when things don't line up for snow here. I guess it was more of an attempt to walk him back from the panic room than anything else. No doubt we all love snow - not all of us can be in the new @Bob Chill mentality...but we will be depressed messes if we tie all of our happiness to big snow. Give me some more of the Jan 3 storm and I'd be happy. HECS are great - but we can't do them every time. There's definitely something to be said about the proliferation of snow maps making the bar go sky high and people expecting huge storms every time the models hint at something even at long leads.

I think you may have unrealistic hopes/expectations for DC winters. There have been BAD stretches through the records. 6 years isn't too bad. Sure it sucks - but DC/Balt is NOT a snow region. We go on heaters sometimes, but again, we are not a snow town for the vast majority of years. Even our seasonal snow climo is thrown off by years like 09-10 - so it's not a great judge of "you should expect this each year" If you have the means to chase upslope and stuff - that's the way to go. Otherwise you've gotta just enjoy the snow we do get, and track other types of weather while we wait. It's why I'm into severe weather in the spring/summer. Hell...I'll even track wind events. Feeling like "we're owed or we're due" for snow is as futile as waiting on the next major tropical system to come through the area. It's disheartening at times - but that's why you've gotta just distract yourself with other stuff. Take up hobbies that interest you other than weather and fill the time with them.

Yeah - I just checked TBWI and it looked anemic. Seems like it must be virga/elevated. It does show up nicely on the TIAD radar.

Any ground truth from the Severn or Pasadena areas?

This weekend is in the other thread. This is the longer range thread.

I actually will sometimes during severe weather/storms run to my front window and yell HAIL - it always cracks me up. My memory is oddly niche sometimes.

Yep - good old AIM with my "KennyWeather" screen name. Cringe.

I remember a very enthusiastic YouTube video of you (I think it was you at least) during a decent, but all things considered, relatively garden variety storm - and you yelling "WE GOT HAIL. HAIL!"

Don't remind me of the olden days. My weather weenie side was not a time I am proud of

I get what both of you are saying. But I think what he's saying is that the models don't "remember" what they predicted X number of cycles ago. They take in the data ingested for the latest cycle and run math calculations to spit out what it thinks the atmosphere will do. The perception of "trends" is there - but it's in the initialization of the models and our analysis of it... So yes - initilization over several cycles could analyze that a piece of energy is stronger each time. But that's not the model trending in that sense - it's the starting data adjusting in real time.

Can't wait for how unreadable things will be when all the 0z guidance shifts way offshore

Some of the analysis over in the storm thread is lol-worthy.

Good advice! My scrolling finger is going to get a workout...I also hate muting people...because often times even the awful posters sometimes are nice to interact with in the off season. I don't have a single person muted. Snow is DEFINITELY a mood booster - but there's too many other more important things to let it burn bridges on a weather forum.

I mean - I get into ruts when it doesn't snow too. We are missing snowstorms, my Packers are out of the playoffs...but hey - I've got a job and two good doggies that are hyper balls of energy. Ultimately the world is going to unfold as it's going to. People need to take the @Bob Chill approach more and just let things be as they are.

I'm a moderator of a pretty large DC area subreddit...and let me just say lately that has been way more refreshing than watching the drama unfold here. Maybe I'm just crankier than usual...but it really does seem people are WAY more testy than in prior years. Everyone needs to go eat their Snickers. Sometimes we just need a reality check - my dad's in the hospital with a blood infection. Kind of puts things in perspective (he'll be okay - they caught it in time!). Honestly maybe the best thing for some of you is to miss out on this storm completely as a reality check (not directed at you @mappy). Sorry...

You all should be glad the powers of @mappy - are not wielded by me. There'd be a bunch more of you with timeouts or post restrictions.

Can we just impose a 3 post limit per day on everyone who derails threads or picks fights? Enough is enough. We can't go more than 3 pages without some f'ing drama. It's a damn weather forum - not some life altering event in your life. R-E-L-A-X and don't take yourselves so damn seriously. Take a step back and enjoy a nice cup of coffee if you need to. But stop mucking up the forum for all of the people who just want to read a decent thread or analysis. Yeah we have our ups and downs - but this is getting absurd the last few days. Get over yourselves - ultimately nothing on this forum is going to make or break things in your life when you wake up tomorrow. Is it really worth bickering and getting your feelings hurt?

How many ticks before it's tasty and we take?

To put the final nail in the "the shortwave is on shore and being sampled!" argument - I think a lot of it is also that by the time a given piece of energy is "on shore" it's also getting closer in time...and in theory that should be narrowing goalposts and more accurate forecasts.

I think to an extent is is a thing - of course more data is better - and directly sampled data is the gold standard. But if it comes to getting the energy within range of like 1-2 RAOB sites - it's really not going to matter a ton. If you had a super dense RAOB network perhaps it would create a greater change. Same answer as above - I think it does matter a bit - but it's not going to result in some wholesale shift like you're indicating it might. Small adjustments, yes - but nothing like January 2000 - those kinds of busts are becoming ancient history. Models can bust - the the risk of something like that is lessening as models advance. If you look at the RAOB release locations - they are often pretty spread out - it's good to have the data - but it's not like a mesonet where you're getting a very dense clustering of data over small scales.

Been said time and time again - the on-land data sampling thing is mostly a thing of the past. Remote sensing has some a LONG way - the vast majority of waves/energy etc are sampled quite well by satellites.

That's a big change from 12z. Onto 0z we go.

Make him buy you a bottle of your choice.

The ensembles are not run using the same backend stuff as the GFSOP - not to mention they *can* but do not necessarily indicate a trend for future OP runs.