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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    I saw a few model runs with good parameters but not much to show for it in terms of potential sensible weather. Maybe another day where we get one or two good cells but most of the area is meh.
  2. Kmlwx
    I think there's something to be said to timing of a threat too. For a nocturnal event, I can certainly see the merits of emphasizing a threat before average bedtimes since people may miss alerts ahead of time. But for a normal afternoon/evening severe events, there's plenty of time in the morning and even up to 12 or 1 for nowcasting and seeing how things like instability, CIN etc are playing out in real time before going big on an event. ENH for our area I truly believe is essentially the new moderate. It's still possible we'd get a moderate with hatching - but if you look at the breakdown of what is ENH vs MOD now - I think mod is going to be much harder for us to attain locally.
  3. Kmlwx
    If my memory is correct - a significant number of our *good* moderate days have come when SPC has added the moderate area at 13z or later. Without going to the SPC site, I believe June 4, 2008 was either bumped to a mod at 13z or 1630z. We call know June 29, 2012 was barely outlooked earlier that same day before going to a moderate risk as the line formed/approached. Am thinking there's other notable ones as well. I think the failure potential is just way too high to warrant moderate risks in this part of the country more than a few hours ahead. Too many variables. I don't envy SPC's job of course - and not digging on them - but elevating the risk area too far ahead of time can lead to public distrust over time...particularly in this day and age when SPC forecasts are all over social media and more widely seen by the public.
  4. Kmlwx
    83mph pixel showing up in Radarscope. TADW radar site took a beating it seems.
  5. Kmlwx
    There's gotta be some damage between Brandywine and Cedarville. TDCA is seeing almost 80mph winds.
  6. Kmlwx
    Outside of huge lines like derechos...this is how you can get some decent severe in these parts. Put up a lone cell that can pretty much have the environment to itself. That will definitely be the star of the show for today.
  7. Kmlwx
    GLM shows some lightning up to around Sterling that is not reflected on ENTLN. Maybe cloud-to-cloud.
  8. Kmlwx
    The NW side has expanded up to around Arcola, VA. If that heads more NE instead of E, DC proper could get in on some storminess.
  9. Kmlwx
    Lake Ridge is going to get walloped it looks like. Between Lorton and Woodbridge next.
  10. Kmlwx
    Now a warning for 70mph and half dollar sized hail.
  11. Kmlwx
    Pretty impressive cell! Pretty close (with some location differences) to what the HRRR was depicting earlier.
  12. Kmlwx
    Funny how earlier I thought best stuff would go north and east of me - now I'm worried about a miss south. Love weather.
  13. Kmlwx
    Yep - seeing growth now around Luray.
  14. Kmlwx
    2nd Meso of the day (discussion above).
  15. Kmlwx
  16. Kmlwx
    And it was for 80% chance of watch. They are probably waiting longer to see convective trends/initiation.
  17. Kmlwx
    16z HRRR is advertising a decent complex of storms for extreme NoVA and into Central Maryland around 20z.
  18. Kmlwx
    I think there's two "issues" to watch. 1) As we've been hearing/saying all morning - the crapvection's impact on instability. I'm cautiously optimistic that the clearing is arriving soon enough that this may be mostly a negated issue. 2) Whether there's meaningful storms for us at all. It seems some of the guidance blows stuff up right along I-95 or east - so it's possible even if there is good convection that some of us get missed (isn't that always the case! lol) Guessing we'll still get a watch at some point, though.
  19. Kmlwx
    Well - here we go into the clearing. It's not quite to me in Colesville yet...but it's right on the doorstep. Should be solid for a decent amount of clearing. Temperatures elevated pretty quick in the clearing (seeing 76 degrees near Culpeper). Probably going to be a "garden variety+" severe day here. Perhaps a bit more widespread and intense than our true "meh" days but also not any sort of higher end/memorable event.
  20. Kmlwx
    The 45% wind probs were removed at the 1630z outlook. The 5% tor probs were also removed. Adding those seemed iffy with the uncertainties. Let's see how the next hour or two plays out in terms of destabilization. The ENH as a whole was trimmed a bit in terms of areal coverage.
  21. Kmlwx
    This is by no means locked in and not "obvious" - yes - the crapvection has lowered potential...but all it takes is a look at the visible satellite. There are big pockets of sunshine as close as Culpeper and breaks in the clouds already into the NoVA area as well. It's still possible the showers and isolated storms have stabilized us, but it's only 12:30 with clearing on our doorstep. Plenty of time for some sunshine to increase CAPE again.
  22. Kmlwx
  23. Kmlwx
  24. Kmlwx
    I'm hanging my hopes on the very nice area of clearing behind the crapvection - if that fills in for our area, I think we are out of the game for anything other than isolated instances of severe gusts.
  25. Kmlwx
    Decent breaks in the cloud cover are showing back near Lynchburg, Staunton and similar areas. If we can get the junky stuff out of here we could get a few hours of broken sunshine to get CAPE up again.
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