Jump to content

Kmlwx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    13,111

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    12z GFS continues to look intriguing around the June 15th timeframe. Afternoon of June 15th on this run has 5000+ SBCAPE, nearly 4000 MLCAPE (over 4000 to the NW of the metro areas). Ripe supercell composite maps as well. Really impressive considering it's the GFS and not the NAM. Again, it's a eternity away at that timeframe...but it keeps the general potential on the table. Pulling a model forecast sounding from near the M/D line in northern Maryland yields this on the College of Dupage site - SFC CAPE = 5425 ML CAPE = 4554 SFC LI = -12 Sfc to 1km shear = 18kts Sfc to 3km shear = 32kts Sfc to 1km SRH = 116 Supercell Composite = 26.0 STP (cin) = 4.2 STP (fix) = 3.6 PWATS over 2 inches.
  2. Kmlwx
    We'll have to watch for the EML aspect of the upcoming period as well. The more recent GFS runs have sent most of the EML advecting north and east and not really into our region. However, the 18z GFS yesterday did move a pretty good EML for a big part of the east coast in the 270hr time frame. That stuff is far from being worked out. As stated above, the upper air pattern is the only thing I'm looking at with any seriousness this far out. Looking at where any EML is situated this far out is like tracking the rain/snow line in a fantasy 240+hr GFS snowstorm in winter. Guessing we have "higher than normal" odds at some decent severe...but whether the X-factors line up for us will determine (and luck, of course) whether it's something memorable or just a few days of hot weather afternoon storms with a pulsey nature. Reminder that our derecho climo around here is 1 derecho every 4 years (I think it's a bit higher to the north and west).
  3. Kmlwx
    Here's some selected ones - along with the PSU Reanalysis maps for each. 1) July 4-5, 1980 - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul4-51980page.htm 2) July 10-11, 2011 (I don't remember this one for some reason!) Not even going to include June 29, 2012 as we all know that one.
  4. Kmlwx
    @ravensrule would be in here in 2 seconds with a comment like that. I've just gone down the rabbit hole reading the "Noteworthy Derecho Events" page on the SPC site.
  5. Kmlwx
    So my best friend CIPS isn't particularly exciting for anything both in the standard and extended range. HOWEVER, I'd be lying if I said i wasn't kind of excited for the day 10-15 period. GFS/Euro and their ensembles have some form of a big ridge to our west setting up. The exact position and "tilt" of this ride varies (of course...this far out it's to be expected). But almost all of them put us on the eastern side of a sprawling ridge...could be good for NW flow events if the stars align. Not saying the D-word this far out - but we might start to see some big time analogs on CIPS if the general looks keeps up. The 6z GFS has a high parameter day or two around the 270ish hour mark (usually GFS is pretty conservative on supercell composite paramter). This is from the 0z GEFS - I'd take this as a severe weenie And here's the Euro Ensembles So you can see the ridge axis and position varies - but on that EC ENS run it kind of wiggles around a bit before and after this frame.
  6. Kmlwx
    I finally have a weekend where I'm not running around a ton. Getting some outdoor activities in today, but hoping to look at the next period in more detail this evening
  7. Kmlwx
    June is definitely a month we can really go wild with severe in these parts. EML helps, of course, as does having decent shear before things get weak in that regard into summer - and hot hot hot temps to fuel storms.
  8. Kmlwx
    June 2008 was one of our significant stretches. Will be interesting to see if any of the other June 2008 events pop up in the next few weeks.
  9. Kmlwx
    CIPS has a few decent analogs in the 120hr range. June 16, 2008 is in there in the midwest sector.
  10. Kmlwx
    Annual departmental fishing charter tomorrow - not sure how good things will be with the storms/heavy rain in the area yesterday. All that runoff will probably be heading for the bay. If nothing else, the weather looks fantastic.
  11. Kmlwx
    3 vehicles stranded on Goldsboro Rd in MoCo due to high water. Knew it was coming...
  12. Kmlwx
    Kind of a cool fake "bow" of showers/storms in NoVA at this time.
  13. Kmlwx
    Decent cell heading for the KLWX radar site. Sub-severe so far.
  14. Kmlwx
    Just the usual elevated severe analog numbers. way out there though like past 300hrs. We'll see.
  15. Kmlwx
    CIPS in the long range is lighting up again
  16. Kmlwx
    How long until the first water rescue near the beltway when somebody drives into deep standing water?
  17. Kmlwx
    You should report that flooding to NWS - runoff here is really impressive.
  18. Kmlwx
    Decent CAPE and decent shear equaled this - even in the absence of good ML lapse rates. Also many of us got good sun today. It was a recipe for a good performance of severe weather. Number of LSRs is impressive. This will easily verify the watch and the overall risk area from SPC it looks like. Will be fun to see this show up in future years CIPS guidance.
  19. Kmlwx
    Marble sized hail at peak in Colesville, MD. Huge runoff down the street and into the creeks near Springbrook HS now. Will be interesting to watch the stream gauge at Kemp Mill.
  20. Kmlwx
    Juicy 90+ temps can work wonders if the right trigger goes through. We also had enough shear to get some updraft rotation like the earlier discussions. More organized version of the July-style pulse severe we get where a cell goes up but quickly collapses.
  21. Kmlwx
    Pea sized hail coming down in Colesville, MD! Torrential rain as well. Funny that the lead cell ended up delivering hail for me. The earlier dominant cell will go S of me it seems.
  22. Kmlwx
    TDCA is seeing some 50-55mph winds with the Montgomery cell still. Wind threat does seem to be a touch lower than before. CIMMS probsevere numbers a bit lower again as well - but could rise again.
  23. Kmlwx
    New warning deeper into Montgomery. Includes inside the beltway but not DC yet. Warned for 60mph and half dollar hail.
  24. Kmlwx
    The SCIT path confirms this.
  25. Kmlwx
    ProbSevere numbers are coming down a bit now with the MoCo/Loudoun cell. Let's see if it collapses or pulses back up at some point. It may be encountering some stabilized airmass as it's now entering the area where the front running cells were.
×
×
  • Create New...