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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Just hit 89 here. Dewpoint is hovering around 73. If the dewpoint doesn't get downsloped and crash too much, am going to get a heat index over 100 at some point during the afternoon.
  2. Kmlwx
    Gross out already - and it was pretty gross even an hour ago. 86.5 here already with a heat index already to 92ish degrees.
  3. Kmlwx
    He also has a very loyal group of followers that will defend him to no end. I definitely recall Cappucci blocking up a turn lane of a road near Annapolis during a tornado. It's one thing to be enthusiastic...but he also doesn't seem to have the ability to often admit when he's wrong. I think his enthusiasm is great, and I'm genuinely happy for him for the things he's accomplished. But he should certainly occasionally take a step back and remember that he's not the authority on weather, and the school he went to doesn't mean he's better than another forecaster/met. He certainly is entitled to opinions...but he also needs to remember that because of his current position, his opinions are read by A LOT of laypeople who will then parrot his ideas back to friends, family, coworkers etc. I personally think some of his comments have caused some social media users to have less faith in NWS products and the website. That's not constructive.
  4. Kmlwx
    Have seen Cappucci say negative things about NWS, NWS website etc like 3-5 times in the past week or two. I have mixed feelings about Cappucci as a whole. He seems like an enthusiastic guy in the field these days, though.
  5. Kmlwx
    Yup - even during the afternoon sunshine/heat there was CIN over areas east of the Potomac. Even more obvious when the current VA cells couldn't make it eastward. If they can't get into the area at 5:30pm, they very likely won't be able to at midnight (or later tonight in general) unless there is a good source of forcing to overcome the negative factors.
  6. Kmlwx
    Hearing LOUD thunder within the past 20 mins in Colesville, MD. Maybe anvil crawlers?
  7. Kmlwx
  8. Kmlwx
    No mandate to be a young-in - Hell...I'd apply for this....lol
  9. Kmlwx
    Appears to be right around where the sharp cutoff in instability is. It makes sense for the most part. We'll see if anything can scoot east more.
  10. Kmlwx
    Seems like they are hitting a wall lol
  11. Kmlwx
    Given that the radar already is different from the HRRR... I like our odds
  12. Kmlwx
    Yes. And one thing that gives me hope is that complexes of storms love the gradient sometimes
  13. Kmlwx
    Very, very sharp CAPE gradient right through the metro area.
  14. Kmlwx
    15z HRRR is almost nothing.
  15. Kmlwx
    Good clearing is shown on visible satellite around the Potomac. Clouds are persisting NE of the 270 corridor a bit.
  16. Kmlwx
    Looks like some of that may/will not be surface rooted, though. Some CINH is indicated from the maps on the CoD site and the wind gust product is pretty paltry. Lots of disagreement in the modeling
  17. Kmlwx
    Cell near Odenton has tops near or above 50kft.
  18. Kmlwx
    Decent amount of lightning with this morning activity. My PWS lightning sensor is showing 22 strikes detected in the last hour or so.
  19. Kmlwx
    Think I saw some loaded gun type soundings when I peeked earlier. Some inhibition to deal with it seems though
  20. Kmlwx
    Decent amount of large hail analog dates showing up on SARS for the NAM/NAM nest 18z run soundings. Thur and Fri are where my attention is at the moment.
  21. Kmlwx
    NAM nest (18z) disagrees but pushes a nice line through Thur PM - decent UH signature right through the metro as well. But we all know that this far out it doesn't mean much.
  22. Kmlwx
    How dare you deb. GTFO of the subforum and go make a micro sub-forum for yourself. SO DONE WITH THIS PLACE. I GUESS I CAN'T POST BECAUSE YOU PEOPLE ARE SO SENSITIVE. *cries in corner*
  23. Kmlwx
    12z NAM nest looked potentially fun at the end of its run for Thur night. Timing wouldn't be the best for us - but sure better than last night's event
  24. Kmlwx
    I think your timeframe is probably more accurate - takes a good pattern (potentially like we are seeing) to extend the good severe season further. I also will add that I am not downplaying those pulse-severe days. Those can certainly be the days where you get one or two rogue cells that go bonkers for a little while before gusting out and spawning a few outflow boundary storms that are less severe. Being that severe weather is pretty small scale weather...individual memories of various severe events can vary widely. A person who gets under a ridiculous (but isolated) pulse storm might remember a day as being "the worst severe storm" they ever saw...while that cell may have only produced 2-5 severe reports and is a snoozer for the rest of us. The rare 2012s, 2008s and Ivan events are the kind of ones that stick in ALL our minds as being area-wide impactors. My "gut feeling" which admittedly is worth very little says that we get 1-2 area-wide "decent to significant' severe events before our climo dies off for the summer. Prepared to be ridiculed when we fail miserably.
  25. Kmlwx
    We likely still have a few more weeks before we get into the climo period of the year when things shift over to high CAPE and extremely meager shear days. June is still meaty in the sense that we can get good shear with good CAPE to overlap. Exceptions of course can exist with potent systems and of course any tropical systems can throw more wildcards in...but past early July things get much more "pulsey"
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