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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    Yeah - that's weird. I guess they are trying to get through the current batch - but that seems semi misleading for readers. They even trimmed probabilities as if this is it for the day. The new outlook has the "the front has cleared the area" kind of read to it. Maybe they are planning on just covering the remainder of the day with mesoscale discussions
  2. Kmlwx
    Pretty good storm - nice gusts of wind when it came through here in Colesville. Now we wait and see how the cloud cover does behind the line - looks like clouds will linger for a bit - but visible seems to suggest plenty of clearing ack towards Petersburg, Harrosonburg, even nosing into Luray area now. And even more west of there.
  3. Kmlwx
    Will be interesting to see trends with further HRRR runs as this line gets out of the way and the airmass behind it is ingested into the model.
  4. Kmlwx
    Looks LEWP-y for sure
  5. Kmlwx
    3hr SBCAPE change has been like +600 for most of us and even +1000 south of DC. Not bad. Even MLCAPE is +400 SE of DC.
  6. Kmlwx
    Seems like there has been an uptick in lightning on the part of the line down near/just south of Palmyra, VA.
  7. Kmlwx
    12 HRRR (still running now) really ramps us this early line and plows it through the area as scheduled. Should leave a decent amount of time for the airmass to recover/destabilize. Rare two round severe day seems more and more likely...though second batch I'd venture a guess won't be as severe.
  8. Kmlwx
    10z HRRR run suggests this is the main show between 16-18z and then we get some general thunderstorms/showers later on. ETA - the RAP indicates two distinct "tongues" of instability. One with the morning activity and then another surge of higher SB/MLCAPE values later on.
  9. Kmlwx
    Regardless of the end result - should be a lengthy day of tracking. Sometimes being able to track something throughout the day, rather than just waiting for initiation all day is fun.
  10. Kmlwx
    Honestly this is how we *could* get a full day under a tornado watch. Send this activity through by 16-18z and then we may be able to recover a bit of instability for a line around 0z.
  11. Kmlwx
    The hires FV3 runs a line through around 15z and then another more spotty one around 01z. I guess we could recover a bit between those two time periods...but 15z is prime time to ruin our instability IMO. Messy evolution. I'm about to meh.
  12. Kmlwx
    Yeah - lots are now hitting the 16-18z time period. That's too early for our hopes. We need 19z or later...
  13. Kmlwx
    When split between a meh and a yay, always go the EJ route of calling meh. I haven't had a chance to look at the 12z suite yet.
  14. Kmlwx
    04/2011 is shown in the analogs as well and That was our like 12 or 18 hours of tornado watches event.
  15. Kmlwx
    Some of the guidance has brought the activity earlier. A few CAMS even have the line entering around 17 or 18z. That's not going to work for severe weenies. 20z would be okay.
  16. Kmlwx
    It's not the sector that's centered over our area, but the SE sector from the 12z CIPS page at hr60 has June 1, 2012 as a pretty high analog. Doesn't show up at all on the sector centered over us. Taking a look at H5 it's not hugely different - but there are some key differences. It seems like the trough was more negatively tilting in 2012. We still have a couple days to adjust things - but I'm certainly not saying I expect that sort of result. But H5 is close enough to keep me interested. The 18z run of the NAM nest wasn't quite as impressive.
  17. Kmlwx
    Another thing I like about the models @high risk mentioned - is we seem to have a little wiggle room with timing. Even if it speeds up by 1-3 hours, we may be fine still as it currently has it around 0z Friday. The events we go full "meh" on tend to be ones where the stuff comes through at like 17-18z. Wiggle room is good! I think I like this threat more than I did the ENH day...
  18. Kmlwx
    Purely non-scientific/anecdotal - but on the NAM nest, the trajectory of those storms kind of matches some fun events if my memory hasn't completely failed yet. NAM nest has a pocket of good sig tor as well!
  19. Kmlwx
    YOU TAKE THAT BACK! lol
  20. Kmlwx
    This is the same timeframe, but for "at least 10 severe reports within 110km of a grid point"
  21. Kmlwx
    Extended CIPS analogs are honking for some severe potential at the 168hr frame. Strongest signal on that page I've seen so far this season/year for our region.
  22. Kmlwx
    Yeah some of the guidance looks absolutely nothing like the actual radar at the moment.
  23. Kmlwx
    Maybe worth mentioning - or may be nothing - but that line entering western Maryland has not been well modeled on the short range guidance. Latest HRRR doesn't even have that line where it actually is. Probably will have a tendency to get tugged back into PA - but the area in the MCD could still get something out of this.
  24. Kmlwx
    Yep - definitely seems to be the case. Like @high risk said - only thing left for us is that it could be poorly modeled - but agreement has been pretty solid on the show being up in PA. No reason to expect otherwise right now.
  25. Kmlwx
    I'd feel better being up in @mappyland
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