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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Doing a rough summation of the lightning indicators from AllisonHouse yields really high numbers. This weekend in particular...likely to be tons of people outdoors. Hope they are heeding the warnings.
  2. Kmlwx
    TDCA showing 52kft tops now. Nearly continuous rumbles of thunder being heard here now. The little "arms" of the storm are into Glenmont now. Should be raining here momentarily. We'll see if it maintains or starts to collapse. Decent amount of juice to work with based on the earlier SPC meso maps.
  3. Kmlwx
    PWS lightning detector keeps going up, up, up. 62 69 strikes associated with this storm already - and it's definitely missed some I'm sure.
  4. Kmlwx
    TDWRs are showing echo tops already nearing 50kft now with that cell.
  5. Kmlwx
    Warned. Really impressive cell thus far. Already seeing some outflow on it - hoping it doesn't just collapse. Warning has a decent trajectory for MBY
  6. Kmlwx
    Is that a potential downburst signature on that cell now? Looks like all the TDWRs and the LWX radar are seeing winds moving away from each other.
  7. Kmlwx
    Pretty quick uptick in lightning on that MoCo/Fairfax/Potomac cell. That may have some legs to it, actually!
  8. Kmlwx
    Little shower developing along the Potomac near Great Falls. Probably will be just enough to stabilize me as it passes over
  9. Kmlwx
    Everything kind of congealed into that one big complex. It's been tough to get them to propagate to the south at all so far. Lots of easterly movement in the storm motions. Looks like outflow from earlier has moved all the way to Damascus, Clarksburg, Comus, back to Point of Rocks. Another boundary looks like it's in extreme northern Loudoun County.
  10. Kmlwx
    Outflow visible in the Brunswick area and then arcing back towards the MoCo/Frederick County line. See if this boundary can trigger some activity closer to the actual city.
  11. Kmlwx
    Everything north for the time being. Radar very, very quiet locally.
  12. Kmlwx
    The long cell in the area (between Hagerstown and Martinsburg) appears to be right along the surface trough that WPC analyzed out that way in the last update. Runs tilting NE to SW to the west of the more populated areas.
  13. Kmlwx
    Radar pretty weak sauce so far. But some of the CAMs liked more around the 0z timeframe.
  14. Kmlwx
    FFG is like 1.5-2" for 1 hour in DC proper. A good complex of storms could do that I guess. Elsewhere is 2-3 inches.
  15. Kmlwx
    14z HRRR predicts initiation in the higher elevations/Blue Ridge area around 3pm with a cluster then growing upscale in NoVA and Central Maryland in the hours following. The lines/cluster pushes east of the bay on that model by 0z. Simulated echo tops get to around 40-50kft as well. Not too bad on that run!
  16. Kmlwx
    Fairly respectable CAPE values across the area already. 1000+ for the metro corridor on MLCAPE and 2500+ SBCAPE. As forecast, we are on the southern fringe of a belt of shear. Mid-level lapse rates are not good, but low level lapse rates are steepening. DCAPE is lacking in the immediate metro corridor, better values in extreme southern Maryland and SEVA. We'll see if that expands with further heating. Theta-e is on the increase as well.
  17. Kmlwx
    CAMs look decent for some of us this afternoon. Seems it will be a garden variety severe day - a scattering of reports possible but nothing history-making.
  18. Kmlwx
    Seems a few good storms could be in the offing for this afternoon. Better chance tomorrow. Summer doldrums otherwise!
  19. Kmlwx
    Post that in the severe thread and bring home an MCS!
  20. Kmlwx
    Little shower in SW Loudoun County.
  21. Kmlwx
    I don't think I was much help - just model perusing!
  22. Kmlwx
    Seems it could be more widespread but TBD of course
  23. Kmlwx
    So far it's an empty radar. Seems the signal for an isolated storm has backed off further on the models. Most guidance has a shower or two around, though.
  24. Kmlwx
    LWX has been watching this afternoon is a storm or two can break through the low odds. We are right about the time when our severe events get less widespread and more spotty (but can still pack major punches). These types of severe events tend to be harder to diagnose/see from farther out. I'm definitely watching the weekend. July tends to need a big time trigger to do widespread severe...otherwise it's the kind of storms that blow up nice and tall but collapse after a short time. Lottery odds...if you get under one you could get minivan sized hail for a few mins before the storm kills itself.
  25. Kmlwx
    I mean I've seen some tasty CFS runs recently
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