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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Latest HRRR sucks.
  2. Kmlwx
    I'm starting to think either we are cooked for severe today or this stuff gets out of the way and something forms/comes through late afternoon/early evening.
  3. Kmlwx
    Certainly seems like all this messy convection about to come off the high terrain will be here very early. There's a lot of it too...not just a few cells. If that doesn't intensify it'll probably dampen our instability big time.
  4. Kmlwx
    Actually so is the 12z FV3, ARW, ARW2 AND the HERDERPS.
  5. Kmlwx
    12z RAP brings a nice line through as well.
  6. Kmlwx
    12z HRRR seems like it missed/is missing all of the crapvection in WV...but it delivers a healthy line into the area this afternoon.
  7. Kmlwx
    Hopefully that WV activity can stay out there for the morning at the very least. I saw a few runs yesterday that brought activity in as early as 17z in spots. If we can prevent crapvection from forming closer in to the major metro - we might be okay.
  8. Kmlwx
    One encouraging sign is that my dewpoint has risen to the upper 60s (even pushing 70 at times). So the moisture has certainly advected back in. Some of the models that really didn't develop much instability seemed to have a dry pool of air in the area and especially in the eastern half of the area on earlier runs. However, I see dews are almost entirely into the mid to upper 60s across the area now...even low 70s in southern Maryland.
  9. Kmlwx
    Very messy radar now in WV. It's too early for this unfortunately if clouds or the activity itself moves into our area. Will be interested to see the 12z runs.
  10. Kmlwx
    Has the feeling like early activity *might* be an issue. Some stuff just W of Elkins now, and even a shower N of Culpeper.
  11. Kmlwx
    Decent amount of cloud cover in the area - but there should be some breaks of sunshine for many at times.
  12. Kmlwx
    New development but potentially triggered in part by the existing line. Though models tend to do poorly with distinguishing new development from existing line - especially when the lines are blurred.
  13. Kmlwx
    Last 3 or so HRRR runs have been quite nice for the metro area this afternoon.
  14. Kmlwx
    My dewpoint is 63ish this AM. Would like to see that higher for the threat for later.
  15. Kmlwx
    Looks like the line misses us and that stuff is discrete activity that develops ahead
  16. Kmlwx
    I haven't caught up with tracking today yet
  17. Kmlwx
    Both the runs @yodamentioned look solid
  18. Kmlwx
    It seems like the 3km NAM keeps moisture return kind of anemic
  19. Kmlwx
    18z NAM nest sucks. It's essentially nothing other than some scattered gusty showers - and almost nothing in DC proper.
  20. Kmlwx
    Power finally back on. Whatever happened for PEPCO last night must have been pretty serious. Big chunk of outages popped up around 2am and the numbers didn't budge until a little before 7am. Had to have been a feeder line or substation...usually the outage is wide to start but quickly is trimmed once they figure out where the actual issue is. No such luck on this - generator failed as well - finally managed to get it running around 5:40am.
  21. Kmlwx
    No reduction in outage count roughly 3 hours later. Must be a major failure or facility down. No word from generator service company either.
  22. Kmlwx
    Major outage in Eastern MoCo and western PGCO. Been out since around 2am. Generator picked a great night to fail.... Must be a big transmission line or substation. Usually those get isolated quick... No such luck this time. Seems over 20K are impacted.
  23. Kmlwx
    Some crazy radar estimates for rain amounts in parts of Montgomery.
  24. Kmlwx
    Radar just keeps blossoming for MoCo. If this keeps up it could get a bit more serious.
  25. Kmlwx
    My PWS lightning count is up to 491 from all this activity. Has tended to estimate low compared to what is reality as well.
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