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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Yup - even during the afternoon sunshine/heat there was CIN over areas east of the Potomac. Even more obvious when the current VA cells couldn't make it eastward. If they can't get into the area at 5:30pm, they very likely won't be able to at midnight (or later tonight in general) unless there is a good source of forcing to overcome the negative factors.
  2. Kmlwx
    Hearing LOUD thunder within the past 20 mins in Colesville, MD. Maybe anvil crawlers?
  3. Kmlwx
  4. Kmlwx
    No mandate to be a young-in - Hell...I'd apply for this....lol
  5. Kmlwx
    Appears to be right around where the sharp cutoff in instability is. It makes sense for the most part. We'll see if anything can scoot east more.
  6. Kmlwx
    Seems like they are hitting a wall lol
  7. Kmlwx
    Given that the radar already is different from the HRRR... I like our odds
  8. Kmlwx
    Yes. And one thing that gives me hope is that complexes of storms love the gradient sometimes
  9. Kmlwx
    Very, very sharp CAPE gradient right through the metro area.
  10. Kmlwx
    15z HRRR is almost nothing.
  11. Kmlwx
    Good clearing is shown on visible satellite around the Potomac. Clouds are persisting NE of the 270 corridor a bit.
  12. Kmlwx
    Looks like some of that may/will not be surface rooted, though. Some CINH is indicated from the maps on the CoD site and the wind gust product is pretty paltry. Lots of disagreement in the modeling
  13. Kmlwx
    Cell near Odenton has tops near or above 50kft.
  14. Kmlwx
    Decent amount of lightning with this morning activity. My PWS lightning sensor is showing 22 strikes detected in the last hour or so.
  15. Kmlwx
    Think I saw some loaded gun type soundings when I peeked earlier. Some inhibition to deal with it seems though
  16. Kmlwx
    Decent amount of large hail analog dates showing up on SARS for the NAM/NAM nest 18z run soundings. Thur and Fri are where my attention is at the moment.
  17. Kmlwx
    NAM nest (18z) disagrees but pushes a nice line through Thur PM - decent UH signature right through the metro as well. But we all know that this far out it doesn't mean much.
  18. Kmlwx
    How dare you deb. GTFO of the subforum and go make a micro sub-forum for yourself. SO DONE WITH THIS PLACE. I GUESS I CAN'T POST BECAUSE YOU PEOPLE ARE SO SENSITIVE. *cries in corner*
  19. Kmlwx
    12z NAM nest looked potentially fun at the end of its run for Thur night. Timing wouldn't be the best for us - but sure better than last night's event
  20. Kmlwx
    I think your timeframe is probably more accurate - takes a good pattern (potentially like we are seeing) to extend the good severe season further. I also will add that I am not downplaying those pulse-severe days. Those can certainly be the days where you get one or two rogue cells that go bonkers for a little while before gusting out and spawning a few outflow boundary storms that are less severe. Being that severe weather is pretty small scale weather...individual memories of various severe events can vary widely. A person who gets under a ridiculous (but isolated) pulse storm might remember a day as being "the worst severe storm" they ever saw...while that cell may have only produced 2-5 severe reports and is a snoozer for the rest of us. The rare 2012s, 2008s and Ivan events are the kind of ones that stick in ALL our minds as being area-wide impactors. My "gut feeling" which admittedly is worth very little says that we get 1-2 area-wide "decent to significant' severe events before our climo dies off for the summer. Prepared to be ridiculed when we fail miserably.
  21. Kmlwx
    We likely still have a few more weeks before we get into the climo period of the year when things shift over to high CAPE and extremely meager shear days. June is still meaty in the sense that we can get good shear with good CAPE to overlap. Exceptions of course can exist with potent systems and of course any tropical systems can throw more wildcards in...but past early July things get much more "pulsey"
  22. Kmlwx
    Isn't this place so pleasant in the non-winter months - great discussion/analysis from everyone and none of the bickering. Refreshing!
  23. Kmlwx
    The ensembles do continue to support a pattern that could sustain NW flow-style chances into the long range. So we should still have potential severe days. I keep wondering if there are parallels to winter forecasting...this was sort of the entry to the pattern and we mostly missed. The more the pattern flexes and sustains, we should score a decent severe day or two if it really has staying power. The obvious caveats are the exact configuration of the ridge/ridge axis, energy cresting the top and coming our way, EML involvement and of course time of day (as we saw last night). Like I said about my best friend CIPS - it's pretty quiet...but am assuming it will light up from time to time if this pattern sets in and sticks.
  24. Kmlwx
    Probably aided by the MCV!
  25. Kmlwx
    Yeah - I should have been more clear on my model solution statement - I was more referring to the fact that almost all models pushed some sort of activity through the whole area - intensity ignored and also which complex would be "ours" - just the general idea of some semblance of a big complex (even if elevated, pushing through). I woke up around 4am and was stuck at how anemic (other than N MD) everything looked. Was expecting a solid line of rain but sub-severe. I'm not sure I got any meaningful precip here in eastern MoCo. I think we all have to remember that the models have trouble with big lumbering winter storms that span hundreds of miles...why would they perform admirably in situations where small-scale storms and differences in tens of miles mean huge differences in the end result? We are a long way off from having reliably good predictions of "events" like this. I will say that I think SPC did a pretty good job - glad they didn't expand the enhanced into our area (and we were even mostly outside the slight yesterday as well). It was a good forecast. I know we all make fun of how "in the moment updating" they were in 2012...but THIS is exactly why you don't broad brush a moderate risk along the entire "potential" track of an MCS. It just isn't high enough confidence. It seemed like last night they were taking the same approach (even with the late introduction of the moderate risk) and this time their conservative forecast panned out really well. Imagine if they had painted us all in ENH or MOD only to have this end result this morning.
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