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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. I'm really, really, really hoping this is something special. I remember seeing the 1997 Leonids with my dad.
  2. Could have been a sporadic (not attached with any distinct shower) but apparently there was a bona fide Tau Herculid seen on a meteor camera a day or two ago. Fingers crossed this turns out to be something! Odds aren't high, though!
  3. Mesoanalysis does have some instability available in our area still. Not expecting anything widespread - but yeah a last hurrah SVR is not out of the question. I'm hearing some thunder here now.
  4. ENTLN is showing a few strikes near Sugarland Run now.
  5. Line is doing a last hurrah effort between Walkersville and down to Manassas. It'll likely be sub-severe but guessing there might be a last minute uptick in storminess.
  6. Isolated flooding threat may evolve in MoCo - some heavy showers popping up.
  7. Looks like that is the dominant cell. Looks like this round will be a snoozer into DC proper for now at least. Just heavy rain in pockets unless a new cell gets going.
  8. Something is trying just west of Charlotte Hall perhaps.
  9. Impressive storms down there in VA (and crossing into Charles Co, MD soon! Looks like the part of the line heading for me is pretty weak - still time, but I bet the more intense activity may rob the northern parts of some of the juice.
  10. I am watching (for MBY purely) the activity between around Staunton up to like Broadway, VA. That seems like the part of the line that may come through my area...if that stays anemic I think I'm done for the day with severe. I do think DC proper has a shot. I'd be watching closely if I lived in Spotsylvania/Stafford or lower southern Maryland.
  11. In all seriousness, I think the watch is well drawn. Will be curious to see how the storms behave as they come more north into the more stable airmass (though there is SOME CAPE). Charles County, MD and areas like Culpeper could be rocking!
  12. It's 0.4 miles from me. I'm contacting SPC to have them revise the outline to be a half mile north.
  13. However...using the watch box rather than county outline, the northern line of the watch is literally walking distance from MBY. So I will just say I'm impacted.
  14. Have gone form 65 or 66 back up to 69 now in Colesville. Getting little hints of sunshine now. Though it's not like high noon anymore. Not sure how much heating the sun will provide late in the day.
  15. I un-mehed as the line was rolling in earlier. Didn't hit severe here - and no damage IMBY - but it was a nice storm.
  16. Many of us aren't even in a slight risk anymore.
  17. Still stuck at 66 degrees here with full cloud cover. I may meh.
  18. The more recent HRRR runs have focused some better activity to the south in the next round but are a little less impressive than earlier runs in the immediate DC-Balt corridor.
  19. Showers running from SW of CHO down to Chatham, VA. Those could serve to increase cloud cover. We'll see how the pockets of clearing sustain or fill in in the NoVA/Central Maryland/DC areas in the next hour or two. The most recent mesoanalysis shows we are pretty worked over in terms of CAPE.
  20. Haven't really seen any sun here near Silver Spring.
  21. Other than glancing at the HRRR I haven't done a lot of looking at the next around yet. Finishing up some work stuff (was SUPPOSED to be a half day). Though from what I've seen on Twitter and on here - I'm intrigued.
  22. And warning fatigue is real - I think that's a solid call - especially in the DC area where (not ragging on LWX) but EVERYTHING seems to get a warning in severe season.
  23. Trend of having HRRR juice up that next line is a good one - I'll use the weenie-ism that maybe it's sampling the ground truth better with time
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