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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    The NAM really focuses the threat west of the DC metro area. The Shenandoah region looks to have best chances on the latest 18z runs.
  2. Kmlwx
    Definitely ages away when it comes to severe weather prediction! But we will likely find a way to fail. Stood out to me as it's the boldest the colors have been over us in a while.
  3. Kmlwx
    Worth noting - solid CIPS severe signal at 168hrs on the 0z suite.
  4. Kmlwx
    Seems a good bet a good chunk of the area will see storms tomorrow. Intensity TBD. These past few days have been incredible from a comfort standpoint.
  5. Kmlwx
    Sim reflectivity has looked pretty consistently good on the CAMs. The one issue may be that some of us get missed to the west on a few models. We'll see how it looks tomorrow AM. I think it'll be a solid SLGT day.
  6. Kmlwx
    I'm watching tomorrow with interest so far.
  7. Kmlwx
    Dewpoint finally into the 50s IMBY. Holding in the low 80s still for temperature.
  8. Kmlwx
    Certainly agree in terms of laypeople. Lucky for us we are "experienced" weather weenies and know how to read a radar map (or at least semi understand). I've sent pictures of a radar map to friends with no caption and they just say things like "I don't even know what the colors mean" - I'm always shocked...like in 30 years you've never seen a TV weather map of radar?
  9. Kmlwx
    Actually seems like DC proper is going to get some shower activity to cool them down!
  10. Kmlwx
    Seems like areas even as far north as I-66 and US-50 might get some activity. Little thing near the beltway in Fairfax on radar. Visible satellite has some agitated clouds up my way as well but I think it'll just stay clouds and no precip up our way.
  11. Kmlwx
    Seems like the front is right through the area right now - 18z analysis had it into the northern parts of Maryland. Guessing that is what's triggering a few showers?
  12. Kmlwx
    High so far IMBY is 93.9. Down to 92.3 with a dew of 68 now. Dewpoints should be crashing later today! Woooo!
  13. Kmlwx
    Looks like the dew is falling now (downsloping?) Peaked around 75 IMBY but has now dropped to 68ish. Temp is nearing 92 for a heat index in the mid 90s.
  14. Kmlwx
    Just hit 89 here. Dewpoint is hovering around 73. If the dewpoint doesn't get downsloped and crash too much, am going to get a heat index over 100 at some point during the afternoon.
  15. Kmlwx
    Gross out already - and it was pretty gross even an hour ago. 86.5 here already with a heat index already to 92ish degrees.
  16. Kmlwx
    He also has a very loyal group of followers that will defend him to no end. I definitely recall Cappucci blocking up a turn lane of a road near Annapolis during a tornado. It's one thing to be enthusiastic...but he also doesn't seem to have the ability to often admit when he's wrong. I think his enthusiasm is great, and I'm genuinely happy for him for the things he's accomplished. But he should certainly occasionally take a step back and remember that he's not the authority on weather, and the school he went to doesn't mean he's better than another forecaster/met. He certainly is entitled to opinions...but he also needs to remember that because of his current position, his opinions are read by A LOT of laypeople who will then parrot his ideas back to friends, family, coworkers etc. I personally think some of his comments have caused some social media users to have less faith in NWS products and the website. That's not constructive.
  17. Kmlwx
    Have seen Cappucci say negative things about NWS, NWS website etc like 3-5 times in the past week or two. I have mixed feelings about Cappucci as a whole. He seems like an enthusiastic guy in the field these days, though.
  18. Kmlwx
    Yup - even during the afternoon sunshine/heat there was CIN over areas east of the Potomac. Even more obvious when the current VA cells couldn't make it eastward. If they can't get into the area at 5:30pm, they very likely won't be able to at midnight (or later tonight in general) unless there is a good source of forcing to overcome the negative factors.
  19. Kmlwx
    Hearing LOUD thunder within the past 20 mins in Colesville, MD. Maybe anvil crawlers?
  20. Kmlwx
  21. Kmlwx
    No mandate to be a young-in - Hell...I'd apply for this....lol
  22. Kmlwx
    Appears to be right around where the sharp cutoff in instability is. It makes sense for the most part. We'll see if anything can scoot east more.
  23. Kmlwx
    Seems like they are hitting a wall lol
  24. Kmlwx
    Given that the radar already is different from the HRRR... I like our odds
  25. Kmlwx
    Yes. And one thing that gives me hope is that complexes of storms love the gradient sometimes
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