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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Something is trying just west of Charlotte Hall perhaps.
  2. Kmlwx
    Impressive storms down there in VA (and crossing into Charles Co, MD soon! Looks like the part of the line heading for me is pretty weak - still time, but I bet the more intense activity may rob the northern parts of some of the juice.
  3. Kmlwx
    I am watching (for MBY purely) the activity between around Staunton up to like Broadway, VA. That seems like the part of the line that may come through my area...if that stays anemic I think I'm done for the day with severe. I do think DC proper has a shot. I'd be watching closely if I lived in Spotsylvania/Stafford or lower southern Maryland.
  4. Kmlwx
    In all seriousness, I think the watch is well drawn. Will be curious to see how the storms behave as they come more north into the more stable airmass (though there is SOME CAPE). Charles County, MD and areas like Culpeper could be rocking!
  5. Kmlwx
    It's 0.4 miles from me. I'm contacting SPC to have them revise the outline to be a half mile north.
  6. Kmlwx
    However...using the watch box rather than county outline, the northern line of the watch is literally walking distance from MBY. So I will just say I'm impacted.
  7. Kmlwx
    Watch to the south of me boooooo
  8. Kmlwx
    Have gone form 65 or 66 back up to 69 now in Colesville. Getting little hints of sunshine now. Though it's not like high noon anymore. Not sure how much heating the sun will provide late in the day.
  9. Kmlwx
    I un-mehed as the line was rolling in earlier. Didn't hit severe here - and no damage IMBY - but it was a nice storm.
  10. Kmlwx
    Many of us aren't even in a slight risk anymore.
  11. Kmlwx
    Still stuck at 66 degrees here with full cloud cover. I may meh.
  12. Kmlwx
    The more recent HRRR runs have focused some better activity to the south in the next round but are a little less impressive than earlier runs in the immediate DC-Balt corridor.
  13. Kmlwx
    Showers running from SW of CHO down to Chatham, VA. Those could serve to increase cloud cover. We'll see how the pockets of clearing sustain or fill in in the NoVA/Central Maryland/DC areas in the next hour or two. The most recent mesoanalysis shows we are pretty worked over in terms of CAPE.
  14. Kmlwx
    Haven't really seen any sun here near Silver Spring.
  15. Kmlwx
    Other than glancing at the HRRR I haven't done a lot of looking at the next around yet. Finishing up some work stuff (was SUPPOSED to be a half day). Though from what I've seen on Twitter and on here - I'm intrigued.
  16. Kmlwx
    And warning fatigue is real - I think that's a solid call - especially in the DC area where (not ragging on LWX) but EVERYTHING seems to get a warning in severe season.
  17. Kmlwx
    Trend of having HRRR juice up that next line is a good one - I'll use the weenie-ism that maybe it's sampling the ground truth better with time
  18. Kmlwx
    Yeah - that's weird. I guess they are trying to get through the current batch - but that seems semi misleading for readers. They even trimmed probabilities as if this is it for the day. The new outlook has the "the front has cleared the area" kind of read to it. Maybe they are planning on just covering the remainder of the day with mesoscale discussions
  19. Kmlwx
    Pretty good storm - nice gusts of wind when it came through here in Colesville. Now we wait and see how the cloud cover does behind the line - looks like clouds will linger for a bit - but visible seems to suggest plenty of clearing ack towards Petersburg, Harrosonburg, even nosing into Luray area now. And even more west of there.
  20. Kmlwx
    Will be interesting to see trends with further HRRR runs as this line gets out of the way and the airmass behind it is ingested into the model.
  21. Kmlwx
    Looks LEWP-y for sure
  22. Kmlwx
    3hr SBCAPE change has been like +600 for most of us and even +1000 south of DC. Not bad. Even MLCAPE is +400 SE of DC.
  23. Kmlwx
    Seems like there has been an uptick in lightning on the part of the line down near/just south of Palmyra, VA.
  24. Kmlwx
    12 HRRR (still running now) really ramps us this early line and plows it through the area as scheduled. Should leave a decent amount of time for the airmass to recover/destabilize. Rare two round severe day seems more and more likely...though second batch I'd venture a guess won't be as severe.
  25. Kmlwx
    10z HRRR run suggests this is the main show between 16-18z and then we get some general thunderstorms/showers later on. ETA - the RAP indicates two distinct "tongues" of instability. One with the morning activity and then another surge of higher SB/MLCAPE values later on.
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