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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    This is pretty off topic at least in terms of what we have going on today - But what's the updates on MPAR or Phased Array radar systems? I know back in like 2015 and 2016 there's a lot of documentation about what the path forward was after the SLEP program for the WSR-88D radars. The current series of GOES has been awesome from the satellite side of things. What about radar? I saw a Powerpoint from back in 2015 suggesting that phased array might be rolling out to FAA sites by 2025 and NWS ones starting in 2030. Guessing that is a pipe dream? I just remember hearing A LOT about it and then mostly nothing the past 5+ years. @high risk, @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx ? Dual-pol was a wonderful step up - but what's our next awesome new toy to play with as weather nerds in the radar field?
  2. Kmlwx
    Well northern folks at least.
  3. Kmlwx
    We got a watch! lol
  4. Kmlwx
    We always seem to manage 1-3 of these early season slights per year. I doubt any of us even hear thunder this PM - but we do winds pretty well.
  5. Kmlwx
    LWX indicates negligible instability. So we'll see how well the gusty showers can do. Ridiculously warm this morning for 3/7. Has "the feel" - at least the early season feel.
  6. Kmlwx
    This could have easily been in the banter thread or via a PM. It just serves to clutter the thread(s).
  7. Kmlwx
    It's also much higher than all the rest of the guidance. Everything else is down in the 45-55mph range.
  8. Kmlwx
    Synoptic wind is where it's at for this event it seems. I just got finished with work - it's on the very high side of guidance...but the 18z NAM nest has 65mph winds over a pretty good area between 2 and 3am tonight.
  9. Kmlwx
    Aw shucks - I'm not THAT smart with this stuff. Most of my strength is anecdotal past stuff. I defer to the red taggers mostly, though. I'm closer to @yoda's copy and pasting than I am to the @high risk analysis. As much as I like snow - and hate 85+ degree weather, I do prefer spring/summer on the forums to winter. Much more of a cordial environment. Seems us severe weenies are way more able to accept that we just don't go big on severe very often versus the winter weenies who are seemingly "entitled to" all winter storms
  10. Kmlwx
    I was looking mainly at the 3z to 6z period on Thur night-Fri AM.
  11. Kmlwx
    The American models seem to be a bit more gung-ho on the wind threat. But really it's only a difference of 5-10mph. American models would (except the long range HRRR) get us close to High Wind Warning criteria at least in isolated spots. But seems like Wind Advisory criteria is a good bet for a pretty wide swath of the area. There were some 60mph pockets of gusts on the GFS and NAM - but most guidance seems to be in the 45-50mph range.
  12. Kmlwx
    I think local media uses it with a decent amount of regularity as well. Maybe in NWS discussions as well. Though not in the zones.
  13. Kmlwx
    Measuring snow on PAVED surfaces is about as wrong as it gets. Paved surfaces retain heat. I don't think I've ever seen snowfall qualified in an official measurement as "slushy" or any other descriptor.
  14. Kmlwx
    He didn't ask for flash flooding
  15. Kmlwx
    Looks like most guidance is 45-55mph gusts. Euro oddly enough seems to be on the lower side of the range.
  16. Kmlwx
    the 6z NAM has 80-90kt winds at 850mb overnight Thur into Fri. Imagine having something like that in the warm season with beefy CAPE. It even places a little pocket of 1-2 supercell compositive paramter in the area - but at 12z Fri AM. Timing sucks.
  17. Kmlwx
    Probably this knowing our luck -
  18. Kmlwx
    I'm in denial every spring!
  19. Kmlwx
    As shown...the timing sucks in terms of the diurnal cycle on the 6z GFS. But timing I feel is less important in these cool season events since we can still advect in warm temps even at night. It's going to be a marginal CAPE environment no matter how you look at it (even during the day). GFS still gets 850mb winds into the 70-80kt range for a time Thur PM into Fri.
  20. Kmlwx
    Woohoo - pencil thin lines of gusty showers
  21. Kmlwx
    Some of the CFS and CanSIPS stuff seem to have a bit of a ring of fire style pattern possible in the warm season.
  22. Kmlwx
    Might as well...
  23. Kmlwx
    Mid February is usually when the early peeks at severe can sometimes start showing up. Judging by the models and the long range thread, looks like maybe a marginal threat for Thur night? General severe discussion, remembering past events, and all that usual stuff that goes in here each year can go in here again. Hopefully we get some good thunderstorms this spring and summer. Looking forward to plenty of copy and pasting from @yoda, downer posts from @Eskimo Joe, great analysis by @high risk, and plenty of sun obs that turn into nothing. Giddy up! And for humor sake - see below
  24. Kmlwx
    This is around when I make the severe thread every year
  25. Kmlwx
    It's all the angles that are murdering us. F angles. The cold air angle, the sun angle - we can't catch a break.
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