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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE
  2. Kmlwx
    Seems like a compact area of potential 60-65mph winds heading towards Leesburg judging by the TIAD radar.
  3. Kmlwx
    the ProbSevere placefile that @Eskimo Joe has shared before is printing out abnormally high values for some of these cells. Have gotten used to them staying under 30% most days.
  4. Kmlwx
    Severe criteria winds showing up on the TIAD radar on the Loudoun cell heading for Montgomery. Could head towards me if it keeps intensity.
  5. Kmlwx
    The Loudoun complex/cell bears watching as well. Nothing severe - but there may be a developing wind signature on that - 35-40mph range for now. But that may be organizing further. Will be interesting to see how it interacts with the outflow from the storms to the SE of it.
  6. Kmlwx
    Snakey outflow boundary heading north
  7. Kmlwx
    That Anne Arundel cell has a wind signature on the TBWI radar.
  8. Kmlwx
    The cell near Berryville/Rippon looks nice - lots of lightning being detected as well.
  9. Kmlwx
    Remember that those are the grids. Often the language is better in the zone forecast product.
  10. Kmlwx
    There's an MCD now. I'm at work and can't post.
  11. Kmlwx
    You know I'm jaded when I'm a Deb lol
  12. Kmlwx
    There still seems to be a south-favored nature of today's threat on the models. Not to say stuff isn't north of the Potomac, but I'd say best shots at something above the severe criteria is south of DC. We'll see!
  13. Kmlwx
    12z NAM nest focuses the activity south of DC
  14. Kmlwx
    Earlier 12z CIPS run has 5/2/2016 and 5/13/2002 in the analogs. The 2002 date was a MDT risk day.
  15. Kmlwx
    Mid-level lapse rates suck on the NAM. Timing could also adjust since we are several days out. NAM does give us sunshine that morning (for now)
  16. Kmlwx
    CIPS has a few heavy hitter events sprinkled in the next 48 hours.
  17. Kmlwx
    Yep. I saw two maybe. Not a storm though!
  18. Kmlwx
    I'm really, really, really hoping this is something special. I remember seeing the 1997 Leonids with my dad.
  19. Kmlwx
    Could have been a sporadic (not attached with any distinct shower) but apparently there was a bona fide Tau Herculid seen on a meteor camera a day or two ago. Fingers crossed this turns out to be something! Odds aren't high, though!
  20. Kmlwx
    Mesoanalysis does have some instability available in our area still. Not expecting anything widespread - but yeah a last hurrah SVR is not out of the question. I'm hearing some thunder here now.
  21. Kmlwx
    ENTLN is showing a few strikes near Sugarland Run now.
  22. Kmlwx
    Line is doing a last hurrah effort between Walkersville and down to Manassas. It'll likely be sub-severe but guessing there might be a last minute uptick in storminess.
  23. Kmlwx
    Isolated flooding threat may evolve in MoCo - some heavy showers popping up.
  24. Kmlwx
    Looks like that is the dominant cell. Looks like this round will be a snoozer into DC proper for now at least. Just heavy rain in pockets unless a new cell gets going.
  25. Kmlwx
    TVS on GR2AE near Charlotte Hall.
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