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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    However...using the watch box rather than county outline, the northern line of the watch is literally walking distance from MBY. So I will just say I'm impacted.
  2. Kmlwx
    Watch to the south of me boooooo
  3. Kmlwx
    Have gone form 65 or 66 back up to 69 now in Colesville. Getting little hints of sunshine now. Though it's not like high noon anymore. Not sure how much heating the sun will provide late in the day.
  4. Kmlwx
    I un-mehed as the line was rolling in earlier. Didn't hit severe here - and no damage IMBY - but it was a nice storm.
  5. Kmlwx
    Many of us aren't even in a slight risk anymore.
  6. Kmlwx
    Still stuck at 66 degrees here with full cloud cover. I may meh.
  7. Kmlwx
    The more recent HRRR runs have focused some better activity to the south in the next round but are a little less impressive than earlier runs in the immediate DC-Balt corridor.
  8. Kmlwx
    Showers running from SW of CHO down to Chatham, VA. Those could serve to increase cloud cover. We'll see how the pockets of clearing sustain or fill in in the NoVA/Central Maryland/DC areas in the next hour or two. The most recent mesoanalysis shows we are pretty worked over in terms of CAPE.
  9. Kmlwx
    Haven't really seen any sun here near Silver Spring.
  10. Kmlwx
    Other than glancing at the HRRR I haven't done a lot of looking at the next around yet. Finishing up some work stuff (was SUPPOSED to be a half day). Though from what I've seen on Twitter and on here - I'm intrigued.
  11. Kmlwx
    And warning fatigue is real - I think that's a solid call - especially in the DC area where (not ragging on LWX) but EVERYTHING seems to get a warning in severe season.
  12. Kmlwx
    Trend of having HRRR juice up that next line is a good one - I'll use the weenie-ism that maybe it's sampling the ground truth better with time
  13. Kmlwx
    Yeah - that's weird. I guess they are trying to get through the current batch - but that seems semi misleading for readers. They even trimmed probabilities as if this is it for the day. The new outlook has the "the front has cleared the area" kind of read to it. Maybe they are planning on just covering the remainder of the day with mesoscale discussions
  14. Kmlwx
    Pretty good storm - nice gusts of wind when it came through here in Colesville. Now we wait and see how the cloud cover does behind the line - looks like clouds will linger for a bit - but visible seems to suggest plenty of clearing ack towards Petersburg, Harrosonburg, even nosing into Luray area now. And even more west of there.
  15. Kmlwx
    Will be interesting to see trends with further HRRR runs as this line gets out of the way and the airmass behind it is ingested into the model.
  16. Kmlwx
    Looks LEWP-y for sure
  17. Kmlwx
    3hr SBCAPE change has been like +600 for most of us and even +1000 south of DC. Not bad. Even MLCAPE is +400 SE of DC.
  18. Kmlwx
    Seems like there has been an uptick in lightning on the part of the line down near/just south of Palmyra, VA.
  19. Kmlwx
    12 HRRR (still running now) really ramps us this early line and plows it through the area as scheduled. Should leave a decent amount of time for the airmass to recover/destabilize. Rare two round severe day seems more and more likely...though second batch I'd venture a guess won't be as severe.
  20. Kmlwx
    10z HRRR run suggests this is the main show between 16-18z and then we get some general thunderstorms/showers later on. ETA - the RAP indicates two distinct "tongues" of instability. One with the morning activity and then another surge of higher SB/MLCAPE values later on.
  21. Kmlwx
    Regardless of the end result - should be a lengthy day of tracking. Sometimes being able to track something throughout the day, rather than just waiting for initiation all day is fun.
  22. Kmlwx
    Honestly this is how we *could* get a full day under a tornado watch. Send this activity through by 16-18z and then we may be able to recover a bit of instability for a line around 0z.
  23. Kmlwx
    The hires FV3 runs a line through around 15z and then another more spotty one around 01z. I guess we could recover a bit between those two time periods...but 15z is prime time to ruin our instability IMO. Messy evolution. I'm about to meh.
  24. Kmlwx
    Yeah - lots are now hitting the 16-18z time period. That's too early for our hopes. We need 19z or later...
  25. Kmlwx
    When split between a meh and a yay, always go the EJ route of calling meh. I haven't had a chance to look at the 12z suite yet.
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