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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Somewhere in the area between Wolf Trap to NW DC up in the MoCo Belway area to College Park is probably going to see a Flood Warning (or FFW) at some point. Lots of heavy rain sticking around.
  2. Kmlwx
    Yep - new little cell. Not seeing much lightning on it. We are probably transferring to more of a heavy rain threat with any new activity. Beefy stuff up by Baltimore could still trigger a warning or two.
  3. Kmlwx
    Doesn't look like it'll cycle up like the original storm did. Radar looking messy now as more little cells start to pop up elsewhere (W of Leesburg, Laytonsville, Sykesville, N of Ellicott City.
  4. Kmlwx
    Some new strikes being shown near Potomac on the ENTLN data coinciding with some weak but new reflectivity returns in that area. Maybe some back building? These storms are relatively slow movers too...definite risk of urban or small stream/creek flooding.
  5. Kmlwx
    The original warning was updated as well to indicate the trees down reports from Potomac, MD (pretty close to my office, actually!).
  6. Kmlwx
    Seems there are two "cores" or local maxes in reflectivity. One is down W of Kensington area and the other is that new warning. The new warning is the dominant one it seems.
  7. Kmlwx
    MCFRS PIO is tweeting several storm reports of trees down in the Potomac area.
  8. Kmlwx
    TDCA still has a good hail indicator on it, though. CIMMS probsevere product has 57% for wind and 20% for hail.
  9. Kmlwx
    VIL numbers are weakening from the LWX radar on this storm.
  10. Kmlwx
    Yes. THere are strikes being shown between Montgomery Village and Brookeville.
  11. Kmlwx
    Doing a rough summation of the lightning indicators from AllisonHouse yields really high numbers. This weekend in particular...likely to be tons of people outdoors. Hope they are heeding the warnings.
  12. Kmlwx
    TDCA showing 52kft tops now. Nearly continuous rumbles of thunder being heard here now. The little "arms" of the storm are into Glenmont now. Should be raining here momentarily. We'll see if it maintains or starts to collapse. Decent amount of juice to work with based on the earlier SPC meso maps.
  13. Kmlwx
    PWS lightning detector keeps going up, up, up. 62 69 strikes associated with this storm already - and it's definitely missed some I'm sure.
  14. Kmlwx
    TDWRs are showing echo tops already nearing 50kft now with that cell.
  15. Kmlwx
    Warned. Really impressive cell thus far. Already seeing some outflow on it - hoping it doesn't just collapse. Warning has a decent trajectory for MBY
  16. Kmlwx
    Is that a potential downburst signature on that cell now? Looks like all the TDWRs and the LWX radar are seeing winds moving away from each other.
  17. Kmlwx
    Pretty quick uptick in lightning on that MoCo/Fairfax/Potomac cell. That may have some legs to it, actually!
  18. Kmlwx
    Little shower developing along the Potomac near Great Falls. Probably will be just enough to stabilize me as it passes over
  19. Kmlwx
    Everything kind of congealed into that one big complex. It's been tough to get them to propagate to the south at all so far. Lots of easterly movement in the storm motions. Looks like outflow from earlier has moved all the way to Damascus, Clarksburg, Comus, back to Point of Rocks. Another boundary looks like it's in extreme northern Loudoun County.
  20. Kmlwx
    Outflow visible in the Brunswick area and then arcing back towards the MoCo/Frederick County line. See if this boundary can trigger some activity closer to the actual city.
  21. Kmlwx
    Everything north for the time being. Radar very, very quiet locally.
  22. Kmlwx
    The long cell in the area (between Hagerstown and Martinsburg) appears to be right along the surface trough that WPC analyzed out that way in the last update. Runs tilting NE to SW to the west of the more populated areas.
  23. Kmlwx
    Radar pretty weak sauce so far. But some of the CAMs liked more around the 0z timeframe.
  24. Kmlwx
    FFG is like 1.5-2" for 1 hour in DC proper. A good complex of storms could do that I guess. Elsewhere is 2-3 inches.
  25. Kmlwx
    14z HRRR predicts initiation in the higher elevations/Blue Ridge area around 3pm with a cluster then growing upscale in NoVA and Central Maryland in the hours following. The lines/cluster pushes east of the bay on that model by 0z. Simulated echo tops get to around 40-50kft as well. Not too bad on that run!
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