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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Yep - completely - but just in the sense that narrow corridors could see a decent amount of training. I could see a localized spot get sig flooding this evening even as most areas get garden variety heavy rain and some isolated cases of standing water
  2. Kmlwx
    It definitely seems like a setup where if you're in the right (or wrong) place, you could get trained over pretty good this afternoon and evening. I don't *think* it'll be anything like the training I saw in June 2006, but if the railroad tracks align it could be a hazardous afternoon for the usual standing water/flooding locations. Guessing at least 5 idiots will require water rescue from vehicles today. Will guess 3 pickup trucks and two minivans.
  3. Kmlwx
    Flood watch expanded
  4. Kmlwx
    Roughly along and west of I-95 there is some CAPE beginning to increase. Nothing ridiculous so far - but still an increase. LI values are actually not bad right in the metro area as well.
  5. Kmlwx
    The metro still gets some narrow "bands" or cells that go through but closer to 0-1z. The NAM nest still has some 2 inch amounts localized in that. It's definitely going to be a game of miles in some places today.
  6. Kmlwx
    And we aren't even to the climo hottest period of the year yet. We will torch in all likelihood - at least for a period and more likely for a long period sometime during July to early September.
  7. Kmlwx
    My temperature is heading upward pretty fast now. Last 15-20 minutes I've gained like 3 degrees. I wouldn't be surprised if the flood watch gets extended maybe one more tier to the east - going to be an interesting day of radar-watching.
  8. Kmlwx
    Definitely one of the more strange sim reflectivity plots I've seen before. Still think a good chunk of the area will see precip - but I'm not sure there will be any sort of sustained severe threat for anyone in the immediate metro area.
  9. Kmlwx
    The NAM really focuses the threat west of the DC metro area. The Shenandoah region looks to have best chances on the latest 18z runs.
  10. Kmlwx
    Definitely ages away when it comes to severe weather prediction! But we will likely find a way to fail. Stood out to me as it's the boldest the colors have been over us in a while.
  11. Kmlwx
    Worth noting - solid CIPS severe signal at 168hrs on the 0z suite.
  12. Kmlwx
    Seems a good bet a good chunk of the area will see storms tomorrow. Intensity TBD. These past few days have been incredible from a comfort standpoint.
  13. Kmlwx
    Sim reflectivity has looked pretty consistently good on the CAMs. The one issue may be that some of us get missed to the west on a few models. We'll see how it looks tomorrow AM. I think it'll be a solid SLGT day.
  14. Kmlwx
    I'm watching tomorrow with interest so far.
  15. Kmlwx
    Dewpoint finally into the 50s IMBY. Holding in the low 80s still for temperature.
  16. Kmlwx
    Certainly agree in terms of laypeople. Lucky for us we are "experienced" weather weenies and know how to read a radar map (or at least semi understand). I've sent pictures of a radar map to friends with no caption and they just say things like "I don't even know what the colors mean" - I'm always shocked...like in 30 years you've never seen a TV weather map of radar?
  17. Kmlwx
    Actually seems like DC proper is going to get some shower activity to cool them down!
  18. Kmlwx
    Seems like areas even as far north as I-66 and US-50 might get some activity. Little thing near the beltway in Fairfax on radar. Visible satellite has some agitated clouds up my way as well but I think it'll just stay clouds and no precip up our way.
  19. Kmlwx
    Seems like the front is right through the area right now - 18z analysis had it into the northern parts of Maryland. Guessing that is what's triggering a few showers?
  20. Kmlwx
    High so far IMBY is 93.9. Down to 92.3 with a dew of 68 now. Dewpoints should be crashing later today! Woooo!
  21. Kmlwx
    Looks like the dew is falling now (downsloping?) Peaked around 75 IMBY but has now dropped to 68ish. Temp is nearing 92 for a heat index in the mid 90s.
  22. Kmlwx
    Just hit 89 here. Dewpoint is hovering around 73. If the dewpoint doesn't get downsloped and crash too much, am going to get a heat index over 100 at some point during the afternoon.
  23. Kmlwx
    Gross out already - and it was pretty gross even an hour ago. 86.5 here already with a heat index already to 92ish degrees.
  24. Kmlwx
    He also has a very loyal group of followers that will defend him to no end. I definitely recall Cappucci blocking up a turn lane of a road near Annapolis during a tornado. It's one thing to be enthusiastic...but he also doesn't seem to have the ability to often admit when he's wrong. I think his enthusiasm is great, and I'm genuinely happy for him for the things he's accomplished. But he should certainly occasionally take a step back and remember that he's not the authority on weather, and the school he went to doesn't mean he's better than another forecaster/met. He certainly is entitled to opinions...but he also needs to remember that because of his current position, his opinions are read by A LOT of laypeople who will then parrot his ideas back to friends, family, coworkers etc. I personally think some of his comments have caused some social media users to have less faith in NWS products and the website. That's not constructive.
  25. Kmlwx
    Have seen Cappucci say negative things about NWS, NWS website etc like 3-5 times in the past week or two. I have mixed feelings about Cappucci as a whole. He seems like an enthusiastic guy in the field these days, though.
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