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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Think our only hope will be if a good enough push of rain cooled air from those storms pushes east and kicks off something closer. If I wasn't a weather enthusiast and looked at this radar - I'd be expecting a pummeling tonight.
  2. Kmlwx
    The 18z NAM nest at the 20z frame looks comically different versus reality.
  3. Kmlwx
    19z HRRR is a big tease. Kills precip right before it gets to me (and appears to be sub severe well before then). Radar looks really deceivingly good, though to the west.
  4. Kmlwx
    Additionally, the record high stats at BWI are such that only 3 days have record maxes below 100. And honestly...even though these are the "new" normals from the new period...we are getting hotter (everyone agrees except for a few). Would anticipate that by the time the next refresh of the "30 year average" data BWI will look more like DCA and DCA will look more like an oven.
  5. Kmlwx
    We are in the climatologically hottest part of the year. BWIs peak average temp is 89 and runs from July 2-26. You are statistically the most likely to have big heat in that period.
  6. Kmlwx
    Radar is starting to have that flood threat kind of look with little cells continuing to pop up behind the outflow boundary.
  7. Kmlwx
    Outflow is really outrunning the storms now. Well into MoCo (almost to Rockville even).
  8. Kmlwx
    Fringed.
  9. Kmlwx
    It's for the urban areas mainly that have seen pockets of very heavy rainfall lately and are very prone to runoff. A quick 1 to 3 inches of rain from a progressive storm will still cause pockets of urban flooding. It's not for major river flooding in this case.
  10. Kmlwx
    Girlfriend got some great pics of the storms as we were driving east on 200 and 32 a little while ago. Will post later
  11. Kmlwx
    Ensembles still don't really favor any major east coast ridging. Seems the heat may end up pretty pretty seasonable overall. Still get your point. I'm really crossing my fingers we can make it through climo peak heat without and massive heat dome for our area. Would be a welcome relief. The heat has been really, really tolerable this season so far. I know we can still torch into August and even early September - but at least by the later parts of that period you can get some good cool front pushes with much lower dews.
  12. Kmlwx
    CIPS and SPC are not onboard with a Monday threat for now. CIPS is *really* quiet until the 168hr and 312hr time periods.
  13. Kmlwx
    Looks stormy all of a sudden on radar
  14. Kmlwx
    I'm up in Odenton tonight. Definitely saw the orange sunset
  15. Kmlwx
    PWS lightning count total is around 771 now. Really impressive. We lost power for a few mins but it came back quickly. Was watching that nasty wind core go through PG etc on my tablet. PEPCO outages up to 40K it looks like.
  16. Kmlwx
    Deep, booming strikes. VERY dark outside. Strike count up to 291 already now. Insane.
  17. Kmlwx
    PWS has detected 200 strikes already - most of those in the past 10 minutes.
  18. Kmlwx
    I'm kind of surprised LWX didn't have that warning go a bit further north and east - especially since we tend to get warnings for 50mph storms.
  19. Kmlwx
    I think it's more just the rear part of that "seahorse" shape. Don't think it's a down/microburst.
  20. Kmlwx
    Is that a downburst signature W of Darnestown? Or is that just from the outflow interacting?
  21. Kmlwx
    I mean...unless it collapses...I'm liking radar for MBY right now. Yeah..the outflow is right on top of me almost....but radar looks good and almost looks bow echo-ey well into MoCo.
  22. Kmlwx
    Big cluster of lightning on the ENTLN data just N of Ashburn and in the area of the river.
  23. Kmlwx
    My weenieism is hoping the line can bully the outflow boundary back a bit. Not saying you can't get storms behind the outflow...just that the threat would be more heavy rain oriented versus severe t'storms. I think Potomac to Chevy Chase to College Park looks pretty good for storms. You can tell the outflow has made the northern part of the line really messy/weak looking. Line is fighting hard, though - the part right east of Dulles has a lot of lightning detected on it.
  24. Kmlwx
    Outflow from the northern MD cells earlier has made it down to almost Gaithersburg and then over to Sandy Spring/Norwood and then to Simpsonville. Not long before it is knocking on my northern doorstep.
  25. Kmlwx
    The CIMMS shapefile seems slow to update today. Has routinely been a bit behind the storms. Thinking if that outflow from the MD storms gets to/past you, you might be ruled out for severe (but perhaps not for flooding). Matches well with the actual radar picture right now. It looks like it'll get to me before the actual storms. Thinking South of a line from Leesburg to Rockville to Hyattsville perhaps for best odds now.
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