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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    CIMMS probsevere placefile has been steadily coming down on the hail percentages on the VA line. But wind probs have stayed very elevated.
  2. Kmlwx
    I'm not sure it technically weakened - I think maybe there's some radar stuff and how it interacts with the terrain perhaps? Or just how reflectivity is imaged with the higher terrain. I remember there being tons of reports pretty solidly as it came through the mountains and into our area - and reduction in the LSRs from that event to the west might have been from just less population to report severe.
  3. Kmlwx
    Though - given our propensity to fail at weather around here - I get where he's coming from - Certainly seems like that complex has overall trended down just a tad recently. My main question is whether there will be new activity or if that existing stuff will "rejuvenate" or cycle back up.
  4. Kmlwx
    Over/under on 3 raindrops for YBY?
  5. Kmlwx
    I'm watching your area and Western MoCo...that outflow coming down from the north could interact with the incoming activity if it's timed right...maybe. My eyes are peeled on the TIAD radar for signs of new initiation. ETA: In fact...looking at visible satellite - there's perhaps hints of some agitation of the cumulus clouds right ahead of the big time storms/clouds from the west and north. Certainly watching for new development in the areas mentioned above. West/Central MoCo, Potomac River, Leesburg area, down to Haymarket maybe.
  6. Kmlwx
    LWX with the big polygons now!
  7. Kmlwx
    Can see clear outflow boundary racing out from the Northern Maryland activity. It's draped from like Brunswick east to Mount Airy right now. - That is likely to have *some* sort of impact on the incoming stuff...or it may trigger new activity in the parts of the area that have not had storms yet.
  8. Kmlwx
    Winchester cell (now seems to be weakening a bit - (good job Cappucci lol) still has mostly an easterly component to the motion. The southern part split off and kind of took a turn to the south. Interested to see if the northern updraft just sort of peters out now as the southern one cranks.
  9. Kmlwx
    Can see it on radar as well. Guessing one will come - you may want to phone it onto LWX!
  10. Kmlwx
    If we are going by echo tops, the southern cell in that complex (heading for Front Royal) may be trying to go dominant. Not sure it will succeed but we'll see. It has the higher tops right now.
  11. Kmlwx
    The storm will likely cycle up and down at times - one thing I haven't noted yet is outflow racing out in front of it - which usually happens super quickly in our severe events. Additionally, plenty of CAPE-laden air is in the area east of the activity. So there's no obvious argument for a complete collapse. I'm somewhat doubtful it's still putting down 80mph winds when it gets closer to the metro areas...but I might be surprised with how impressive this thing looks.
  12. Kmlwx
    It's in range of the TIAD radar now as well. So we'll have an additional radar to watch velocity.
  13. Kmlwx
    Found a 102.9mph pixel on the KLWX site radar scans on RadarScope.
  14. Kmlwx
    CIMMS probsevere is >= 95% for hail and wind on that complex still.
  15. Kmlwx
    Looks like a bookend vortex kind of setup. Rotation markers showing up on GR2AE approaching Winchester in that little curl in the reflectivity.
  16. Kmlwx
    Yeah - if you watch the loop of VIL/VILD on radar there are two cores. One heading for Winchester and the other down further south heading in the general direction of Front Royal.
  17. Kmlwx
    Cappucci "it will weaken" - he's really on the weakening train. Like duh...it can't stay that strong for hundreds of miles - of course it will weaken. But he's hammering the "it will weaken" headline HARD.
  18. Kmlwx
    There was a 95mph pixel on RadarScope (using the KLWX site) on that complex...ground truth is less dense out there - but would love to see some LSRs.
  19. Kmlwx
    My eyes have been on that gap since the storms formed lol. I'm cautiously optimistic. Less so for Columbia - Have to imagine *something* whether it be sub-severe or severe will form as the stuff comes off the higher terrain. But screw zones always setup.
  20. Kmlwx
    For MBY - That WV stuff will be a close shave. Right now I *really* like the trajectory...but am most concerned about it slipping south and it being more of a Fairfax or DC proper into PG event. If more can develop - or perhaps if that storm can expand a bit more as it comes off the terrain things will be less precarious.
  21. Kmlwx
    Various CAPE parameters have been slowly improving over the metros. Decent amount of CAPE available - DCAPE looking better on mesoanalysis than earlier. Hail parameters have been on the rise as well. I know this is anecdotal at best...but that WV complex is in a position that has traditionally been pretty fierce for the immediate metro area (or at least parts of). There was a storm in July 2013 I think that tracked through there, then to Winchester, and then had some nasty winds that cut right through MoCo etc. EDIT: It was July 25, 2010. Wind core was near/just north of Winchester that day and did some severe damage in the metro area.
  22. Kmlwx
    Am hoping that area between the WV complex and the Hagerstown area complex can fill in with new development. I have a bunch that the WV complex may have a tendency to bend a little more south than east and may miss me (still looks good for DC, though. Some modeling certainly has screwed parts of the area - and it's to be expected with mesoscale weather events. I'm still optimistic....but we'll see. Certainly looks like a more widespread event than our spotty events.
  23. Kmlwx
    Cappucci says "Storms will weaken on approach to DC around suppertime, but might still linger with rain/lightning." Gutsy call given the current radar.
  24. Kmlwx
    Severe t'storm watch issued. Radar looking good.
  25. Kmlwx
    First mesoscale discussion of the day north of the Mason-Dixon line all the way up into the NE.
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